Picks & Analysis for Boxing Day...
Monday 24th December 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Man Utd v Huddersfield…
- Swansea v Aston Villa…
- Newport County v Forest Green…
Big results…
There were a couple of huge Match Result results at the weekend. Leicester’s win at Chelsea was priced at 10/1. And the bookies had Crystal Palace’s shock victory at Man City as a 20/1 rank outsider.
It was very much a weekend for Away teams in the Premier League. Just 2 of the 10 games saw the Home team collect the 3 points – Bournemouth beating Brighton and Arsenal seeing off Burnley. There was one draw, and no fewer than 7 Away Wins.
Festive stats…
With Liverpool winning at Wolves and Man City losing, the Reds will sit 4 pts clear on Christmas Day. The good omen for Liverpool fans is that the last time Palace won at City was in 1990… the same year that Liverpool last won the league. The bad omen would be that of the last nine sides to be top of the Premier League at Christmas, the only one to fail to go on to lift the trophy were… Liverpool. We’re all set for an exciting title race.
In following the top stats & trends, we don’t mind where in the table or which division we go to for our featured matches…
At the weekend we had a decent smattering of results, with four out of five winning picks. The one that missed the mark was Rotherham 0 West Brom 4 – plenty of goals, but one short for Both Teams to Score. The Baggies kept a first Away Clean Sheet of the season, but are still No.1 in our Championship table for Both Teams to Score.
The winners came from West Ham -1 Corner Handicap v Watford in the Premier League (corners score: 10-4), Barnsley Most Corners at Blackpool in League One (corners: 4-5), Both Teams to Score in the Lincoln-Newport game in League Two (3-2) and Under 10.5 Corners for Hamilton v Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership (Total Corners = 9).
Picks & Analysis – Boxing Day…
The next round of games is on Wednesday, with the traditional Boxing Day fixture list.
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
Man Utd v Huddersfield
Premier League
Wednesday, 3pm
Match odds: Man Utd 2/9 (1.22), Draw 11/2 (6.50), Huddersfield 14/1 (15.00)
After a 5-1 win at Cardiff in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s first game in charge, the bookies are expecting a Home Win for Man Utd here. And with the Red Devils so far giving more Over 2.5 Goals payouts than any other Premier League team this season (83%), that option is also a favourite in the betting at 8/13 (1.62) in general.
Digging a little deeper, the Man Utd -3 Corner Handicap looks the best stats market and price here…
United are 3rd in the division for Most Corners payouts. And have covered the -3 Corner Handicap (winning 4+ corners more than opponents) in 4 of their last 5 games at Old Trafford.
Huddersfield have a poor Away corner-winning record against Top 6 sides. They’ve been comprehensively out-cornered 7-1 at Arsenal (lost 1-0) and a 10-3 at Man City (lost 6-1).
That pattern of domination continues on from last season where 5 of Huddersfield’s trips to the Top 6 saw the Home team beat not only the -3 but also the -4 Corner Handicap.
Overall, in those last 8 visits to Top 6 sides (Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool), Huddersfield have managed a total of just 12 Corners For – while conceding a whopping 68 Corners Against.
- Man Utd -3 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, 19/20 (1.95) Betway, 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Swansea v Aston Villa
Championship
Wednesday, 3pm
Match odds: Swansea 13/8 (2.63), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Villa 17/10 (2.70)
Just one point separates these two in the middle of the Championship table, and the Match Result prices reflect that.
The Goals stats are where it’s at here…
This is a great match-up. Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Swansea’s last 7 Home games, and 5 of Villa’s last 6 Away.
The recent overall form backs this up: Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 6 Swansea games in a row – and in each of Villa’s last 7 games.
Also keep an eye out for Villa’s on-loan striker Tammy Abraham (who was at Swansea last season). He’s the joint-2nd Top Scorer in the division, and has bagged 9 goals in his last 7 games.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365, William Hill, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Marathonbet, Betfred, Boylesports, Sportingbet, 888 Sport, Unibet
Newport County v Forest Green
League Two
Wednesday, 3pm
Match odds: Newport 8/5 (2.60), Draw 9/4 (3.25), Forest Green 7/4 (2.75)
This is 8th plays 7th in League Two with just one point between them – and another close set of Match Result prices.
Both Teams to Score is a big match-up here…
Both Teams to Score has paid out in 12 of Newport’s last 13 games, and County are ranked 2nd in the division for this bet.
Forest Green are No.1 in League Two for Both Teams to Score, with an unrivalled 100% Away record of 11 payouts out of 11.
The stats say: goals at both ends.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 83/100 (1.83) with Sportingbet, 4/5 (1.80) NetBet, 10Bet, 3/4 (1.75) Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 8/11 (1.73) in general
Boxing Day picks…
In summary, here are Wednesday’s picks at the best prices:
Man Utd v Huddersfield:
Swansea v Aston Villa:
Newport County v Forest Green:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 83/100 (1.83) with Sportingbet
I’ll be back on Friday with stats & picks for the weekend games.
Enjoy Christmas. And enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
