Standout stats and 2 picks for tonight...
Wednesday 27th February 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Top-rated match-ups...
- Southampton v Fulham...
- Kilmarnock v Motherwell...
Tonight’s top match-ups...
The midweek fixtures continue this evening with six games in the Premier League and five in the Scottish Premiership.
Head-2-Head comparisons for every game can be viewed by logging in to the website.
Looking at the stats...
Liverpool v Watford is a strong match-up for Liverpool to win the Most Corners. The Reds have landed that bet in 12 out of 13 league games at Anfield (92%), while Watford have managed just 2 corner wins on the road all season (14%). The price is the problem, though. Liverpool are 1/6 (1.17) at best to win the Corners Match Bet.
The stats highlight two other strong match-ups for this evening, with more palatable prices & markets available:
Southampton v Fulham
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Southampton 19/20 (1.95), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Fulham 10/3 (4.33)
These two are both in the relegation places. Southampton are odds-on for the Home Win, but have only won 2 games at St Mary’s in the league this season. Fulham are yet to win Away.
Over 2.5 Goals is the top match-up here, paying out in 6 of Southampton’s last 7 Home games and in 6 of Fulham’s last 7 Premier League games.
Only four sides have a worse Home defensive record than the Saints. And with 35 goals conceded in 14 Away games (an average of 2.5 Goals Against per game), Fulham are out on their own in that department.
Last time these sides met, it ended 3-2...
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Marathonbet, Betfair Sportsbook
Kilmarnock v Motherwell
Scottish Premiership
7.45pm
Match odds: Kilmarnock 19/20 (1.95), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Motherwell 16/5 (4.20)
As featured in yesterday’s ATL Extra email, Kilmarnock are on a 16-game run for Under 10.5 Corners payouts. They are the No.1 team in the Scottish Premiership for that bet, with an 83% overall record, and a 92% Home strike-rate with 12 out of 13 Home games settling with 10 or less Total Corners.
Killie and their plastic pitch have been right up there all season for this bet. Motherwell match-up well too with a 71% Away record for Under 10.5 Corners.
That option is as short as 4/9 (1.44) tonight, but Under 9.5 or Under 10 Corners is priced up more like a 50-50 market, despite the stats still being squarely in favour of the ‘Under’ option...
There have been 9 or less corners in 15 of those last 16 Kilmarnock games, and in 11 of their 13 Home games for the season (85%). The Under 9.5 or Under 10 option has also paid out in 4 of Motherwell’s last 5 Away.
- Total Corners Taken – Under 10 Corners @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet
Also available (same bet with different names):
Alternative Number of Match Corners – Under 10 @ 4/5 (1.80) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Alternative Corners – Under 10 @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365. Under 10 Corners @ 8/11 (1.73) with NetBet, 10Bet. Under 9.5 Corners @ 4/5 (1.80) with 188Bet, 8/11 (1.73) 888 Sport, Unibet
Stats Picks…
In summary, here are tonight’s picks at the best prices:
Southampton v Fulham:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365
Kilmarnock v Motherwell:
- Total Corners Taken – Under 10 Corners @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet
I’ll be back on Friday with the standout stats match-ups & prices for the weekend games – and some news on my upcoming plans for your Across the Leagues service.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
