Picks & Analysis - including Ajax at 5.55pm...
Tuesday 27th November 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis for tonight...
- AEK Athens v Ajax...
- Hoffenheim v Shakhtar Donetsk...
- Southend v Scunthorpe...
Champions League – Match-day Five...
With four of the six rounds of Group games played, Barcelona are the only team to have already secured qualification to the Champions League Knockout stage. That means there’s plenty at stake this week, with several teams looking to book their spot in the Last 16...
There’s also a full midweek programme in the Football League...
Picks & Analysis…
The latest Championship, League One & League Two match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
AEK Athens v Ajax
Champions League
5.55pm – BT Sport
Match odds: AEK 11/2 (6.50), Draw 3/1 (4.00), Ajax 4/7 (1.57)
This early kick off sees Ajax needing a win to guarantee qualification – with Athens needing to win to keep alive any chances of 3rd place in Group E and a Europa League spot...
‘High Cards’ is the stats angle here. Ajax have got 2+ Yellow Cards in each of their 4 games so far, with Over 4.5 Total Cards (50+ Total Booking Points) paying out in all 4 games.
There were 5 Cards (50 Pts) in the reverse fixture on Match-day One. Tonight’s game has more riding on it. And the match Referee, Michael Oliver, has shown 6 Cards and 7 Cards in his 2 Champions League appearances so far this season...
Also available: 50+ Booking Points @ Evens (2.00) with Skybet. Over 45 Booking Points @ 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill. Over 4.5 Cards @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, 22/25 (1.88) 888 Sport, Unibet.
Hoffenheim v Shakhtar Donetsk
Champions League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Hoffenheim 8/11 (1.73), Draw 7/2 (4.50), Shakhtar 18/5 (4.60)
Only a win will do for either team – and even that might not be enough to help them progress. The scene is set for Goals, and this could be a bit of a rollercoaster...
Group F has been the Group of Goals so far. All 8 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals, with an average of 4.1 Total Goals per game.
Hoffenheim have been involved in a raft of entertaining matches, including a couple of 2-2 draws and a 3-3, too. For the season overall in all competitions, 16 of the German side’s 18 games (89%) have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals, and on Both Teams to Score.
Shakhtar are an established ‘high Goals’ team in Europe, with 9 of their last 10 Champions League games paying out on Over 2.5 Goals. That includes a 2-2 draw v Hoffenheim and another 2-2 in Lyon.
Looking at tonight’s prices, Both Teams to Score is 4/9 (1.44) and Over 2.5 Goals is 2/5 (1.40). The combo market on Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals is just 4/6 (1.67).
Rather than take those short prices, there’s enough evidence in the stats to go for bigger prices and more speculative options here...
Over 3.5 Goals is Evens+ (2.00+). That’s paid out in 3 of both sides’ 4 games so far.
And for a big price, Both Teams to Score in Both Halves is a best price 7/1 (8.00)...
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/10 (2.10) with Betfair Sportsbook, 21/20 (2.05) Sportingbet, 188Bet, Evens (2.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, 888 Sport, Unibet
- Both Teams to Score in Both Halves – Yes/ Yes @ 7/1 (8.00) with William Hill, Bet365, 13/2 (7.50) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, Coral, Ladbrokes, NetBet, 10Bet
Southend v Scunthorpe
League One
7.45pm
Match odds: Southend 10/11 (1.91), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Scunthorpe 3/1 (4.00)
Recent form and history says to expect Goals in this one...
Scunthorpe are joint-1st in the division for Over 2.5 Goals. Each of their last 4 league games – and 5 of their last 6 – have seen 3+ Total Goals. Since the start of October, Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 9 of Scunthorpe’s 12 games in all comps.
Southend have also been involved in several Over 2.5 Goals games recently. Five of their last 6 – including 3 in a row at Home – have gone Over 2.5.
Recent meetings between these sides have featured plenty of goals: 3-2 and 3-1 at Southend, as well as 3-1 and 4-0 score-lines at Scunthorpe.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 86/100 (1.86) with 188Bet, 83/100 (1.83) Marathonbet, 4/5 (1.80) in general
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
AEK Athens v Ajax:
Hoffenheim v Shakhtar Donetsk:
Southend v Scunthorpe:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 86/100 (1.86) with 188Bet
I’ll be back tomorrow with Picks & Analysis for the Wednesday night games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
