Summer Stats Picks - Madagascar v Nigeria...
Friday 28th June 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Summer Stats...
- AFCON goals trends...
- Madagascar v Nigeria – 7/2 and 9/2 picks...
Summer Stats Picks...
We continuing our ‘Summer Stats Picks’ feature this weekend with an eye-catching trend on show at the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Egypt...
AFCON goals trends...
African Cup of Nations 2019
From 18 games played as of last night, 27th June:
- 15 of the 18 AFCON games have been Under 2.5 Goals (83%)
That is a mighty prolific trend. Under 2.5 Goals is pretty much uniformly priced at around 1/2 (1.50) or shorter in almost all of this weekend’s Group games.
The Half Time/ Full Time and Correct Score markets can point you towards bigger odds and more attractive returns...
Of those 15 Under 2.5 Goals games, just under half of them (7) have been goalless at Half Time. But despite those blank first halves and the overall low goals trend, we’re yet to see a 0-0 draw in the competition...
That means we’re seeing teams grab a goal or two to win in the second half, paying out on the respective ‘Half Time – Draw/ Full Time – Win’ option.
These low-scoring AFCON matches also lead us to the Correct Score markets. So far we’ve seen:
1-0 x 7
2-0 x 5
1-1 x 2
2-2 x 2
3-2 x 1
4-1 x 1
The 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Scores are by far the most prevalent, between them accounting for 12 of the 18 games played in total (67%).
Looking at this weekend’s fixtures – with those goals trends and markets in mind – there’s a game on Sunday that fits the bill...
Madagascar v Nigeria
Match odds: Madagascar 4/1 (5.00), Draw 2/1 (3.00), Nigeria 19/20 (1.95)
With two out of three rounds played in Group B, Nigeria are sitting pretty in top spot with 6 points, with Madagascar in 2nd place and looking good with 4 pts (Guinea 1pt, Burundi 0 pts). That situation explains the slighter shorter than usual price for the Draw here, with a stalemate taking both teams through to the next round as they are.
Nigeria were match favourites in their first two games, too – and on both occasions there was a narrow margin of victory with a 1-0 win v Burundi followed by another 1-0 v Guinea. And both of those games were 0-0 at Half Time...
Madagascar beat Burundi 1-0 last time out and that one was goalless at the break, too.
Under 2.5 Goals is odds-on at 4/9 (1.44). Bigger prices are to be found in the HT/ FT and Correct Score markets...
Half Time – Draw/ Full Time – Nigeria is available at 7/2+ (4.50+) and the Nigeria 1-0 Correct Score can be backed at 9/2+ (5.50+). Those two options offer more attractive returns than for Nigeria to win, or for Under 2.5 Goals.
Summer Stats Picks:
Madagascar v Nigeria
African Cup of Nations
Sunday, 5pm – Eurosport
The Women’s World Cup and Copa America also continue into next week and beyond. I’ll be following all the stats & results, and will keep you updated with any stats trends & bet opportunities.
Enjoy the sun...
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
