Picks & Analysis - including Tottenham and Barcelona...
Wednesday 28th November 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis for tonight...
- Tottenham v Inter Milan…
- PSV Eindhoven v Barcelona…
- Borussia Dortmund v Club Brugge…
- Millwall v Birmingham…
Match-day Five continues…
Champions League Group F lived up to its billing as the ‘Group of Goals’ last night. After scores of Lyon 2 Man City and Hoffenheim 2 Shakhtar Donetsk 3, Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in all 10 Group F games.
We focused on the Hoffenheim match, and the Goals stats definitely led us in the right direction…
Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals were settled within 17 minutes, and our Over 3.5 Goals pick was in by half time. Shakhtar added another goal in the second half, and had it not been for Hoffenheim going down to 10 men, the Home side might have got the goal needed to land my speculative 7/1 pick on Both Teams to Score in Both Halves.
Elsewhere, AEK Athens 0 Ajax 2 soared over the Over 40 Booking Points line, with a Red Card in the mix there too, contributing to a full time tally of 85 Booking Points (8 Cards). In League One, Southend 2 Scunthorpe 0 fell one short of the Over 2.5 Goals line, making it a break-even night overall.
Picks & Analysis…
Champions League Match-day Five continues with another 8 games tonight, all available to view live on the various BT Sport channels. And there are also 6 fixtures in the Championship, all on the Sky Sports ‘match choice’ options.
The latest Championship match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Tottenham v Inter Milan
Champions League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Tottenham 3/4 (1.75), Draw 3/1 (4.00), Inter 4/1 (5.00)
Tottenham need to win to stay in with a chance of qualifying for the Knockout stage. A draw would be enough for Inter. The stage is set for a big European game at Wembley…
The Goals stats are once again a key Champions League theme for us this evening:
Both Teams to Score bets and Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 4 Tottenham games so far, and 6 of their 8 games at Wembley in all comps this season.
Since the start of last season, Both Teams to Score has paid out in 10 of Spurs’ 12 Champions League games overall.
The reverse fixture in Italy finished 2-1 to Inter, and the Milan side match-up well for another Both Teams to Score result this evening. That bet has paid out in 3 of their 4 Champions League games so far, with a 2-0 defeat at Group leaders Barcelona the only exception.
With either side yet to keep a Clean Sheet in this season’s competition, goals at both ends is the standout pick here.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/13 (1.62) with Betfred and in general
PSV Eindhoven v Barcelona
Champions League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: PSV 6/1 (7.00), Draw 4/1 (5.00), Barcelona 4/9 (1.44)
Barcelona can guarantee top spot in Group B with a win. While 4th place PSV are mathematically still in it, realistically the Dutch side are only playing for pride. The Corners stats stand out here…
PSV have been out-cornered in all 4 games so far, including 1-6 v Tottenham in their last Home fixture.
Barcelona are long-established as strong corner winners – ranked 2nd on our Historical Champions League Stats. The Spanish giants have won the Most Corners by scores of 3-10 and 10-3 in their last 2 Champions League games, as well as 8-1 in a 4-0 win over PSV on Match-day One.
The -2 Corner Handicap is a decent price here and well within Barcelona’s capabilities.
- Barcelona -2 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 (2.05) with NetBet, 10Bet, BetVictor, Evens (2.00) Bet365, William Hill. Barcelona -2.5 Corner Handicap @ 26/25 (2.04) with Marathonbet
Borussia Dortmund v Club Brugge
Champions League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Dortmund 3/10 (1.30), Draw 5/1 (6.00), Brugge 10/1 (11.00)
With 2 games to go, Dortmund are top of Group A on goal difference, ahead of Atletico Madrid. Brugge are 3rd and this is a must-win game for the Belgians to keep their qualification hopes alive.
Last night’s Hoffenheim game showed we shouldn’t fear the higher-than-normal Over 3.5 Goals line when the stats suit. And this evening we have another free-scoring German side playing at Home…
Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in an eye-popping 8 out of 9 Dortmund Home games in all comps this season. Including each of their last 5 at the Westfalenstadion, with the score-lines: 3-2, 3-2, 2-2, 4-0 and 4-3.
Those are big numbers, and Brugge fit the bill nicely enough with 4 of their last 6 Away games seeing 4+ Total Goals. Their 2 Champions League trips have ended in a 0-4 win and a 3-1 defeat.
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/5 (2.20) with Betfair Sportsbook, 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred, Paddy Power, 888 Sport, Unibet
Millwall v Birmingham
Championship
7.45pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Millwall 5/4 (2.25), Draw 12/5 (3.60), Birmingham 5/2 (3.50)
Last but not least we have another strong Goals match-up, this time in the Championship where Millwall v Birmingham has some of the highest stats of the week…
Only three teams in the division have produced more Over 2.5 Goals results than Millwall this season. At Home the Lions’ have given 7 out of 9 payouts (78%), including 4 of their last 5 at The Den.
Birmingham are one of the form teams in the Football League for this bet, with Over 2.5 Goals paying out in 8 of their last 10 – and each of their last 5. That includes recent scores of: 4-2 (A), 3-3 (H) and 3-1 (A).
With those figures in mind, I’m surprised to see the Over 2.5 option priced up as the underdog in the Under/ Over market here.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (2.10) with 888 Sport, Unibet, Paddy Power, 109/100 (2.09) Marathonbet, Evens (2.00) in general
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Tottenham v Inter Milan:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/13 (1.62) with Betfred
PSV Eindhoven v Barcelona:
- Barcelona -2 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 (2.05) with NetBet
Borussia Dortmund v Club Brugge:
Millwall v Birmingham:
I’ll be back on Friday with Picks & Analysis for the weekend games.
P.S
And finally…
After watching last night’s games with my long-time colleague, Shaun Humphris, I thought I should give him a mention in today’s email. Like me, Shaun has been working on the stats behind your Across the Leagues service for some time now – a decade and counting. Shaun is a stats-man through & through. He’ll be popping up in your emails more often from now on.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
