Picks & Analysis for the weekend...
Friday 28th December 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Man Utd v Bournemouth…
- Brighton v Everton…
- 3 Scottish Corners picks…
Festive fixtures come thick & fast…
We’re doing okay on the festive picks so far with 5 out of 8 winners, and the weekend & New Year fixtures still to come…
On Boxing Day, Man Utd beat Huddersfield 3-1 to rack up another Over 2.5 Goals result (see below), but were 2 corners short of landing our -3 Corner Handicap pick (5-3). Swansea v Aston Villa bucked the recent Over 2.5 Goals form (0-1).
Newport County 1 Forest Green 4 didn’t disappoint, with Both Teams to Score paying out for the 12th time in 12 Forest Green Away games this season (100%).
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
Moving on to the upcoming weekend games, there are some highly-rated match-ups on the stats for us…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
Man Utd v Bournemouth
Premier League
Sunday, 4.30pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Man Utd 4/11 (1.36), Draw 9/2 (5.50), Bournemouth 8/1 (9.00)
They’ve changed their manager but Man Utd look like staying No.1 in our Premier League Over 2.5 Goals standings…
And they’re scoring lots of goals all of a sudden, with a 5-1 win at Cardiff and a 3-1 victory v Huddersfield in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s first couple of games in charge.
Bournemouth have lost 7 of their last 9, and 3 of their last 4 – including a 0-4 defeat v Liverpool and a heavy 5-0 loss at Tottenham.
The Match Result form and Goals stats give a few options at various prices in the markets here:
Man Utd -1 Handicap (to win by more than one goal) is Evens (2.00). Man Utd to Win & Over 2.5 Goals is 20/23 (1.87). Over 3.5 Goals – which has paid out in 6 Man Utd league games in a row – is 11/8 (2.38).
The simplest – and strongest – option on the stats is the standard Over 2.5 Goals bet. Man Utd are No.1 in the division for this bet (84% record), with Bournemouth 2nd (74%). Seven out of 9 games at Old Trafford have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals, as have 7 out of 9 Bournemouth Away games.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/15 (1.53) with Bet365, Betfred, 888 Sport, Unibet, Marathonbet, Sportingbet
Brighton v Everton
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Brighton 13/5 (3.60), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Everton 6/5 (2.20)
Sticking with the Goals theme in the Premier League, this one stands out on the Both Teams to Score stats…
Brighton have found the net in all 9 Home games this season, with goals at both ends in 7 of them (78%) – the joint-1st Home record in the division for Both Teams to Score payouts.
Everton are ranked 3rd for this bet, including 6 out of 9 payouts on the road (67%) – and 5 in a row overall with scores of 1-5 (A), 2-6 (H), 3-1 (A), 2-2 (H), 1-1 (H).
Both Teams to Score has paid out in each of the last 4 games at the AmEx Stadium, with the Seagulls scoring and conceding against Arsenal, Chelsea, Palace and Leicester.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 4/5 (1.80) with Betfred, Sportingbet, 3/4 (1.75) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, 888 Sport, Unibet, Marathonbet, Boylesports, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power
3 Scottish Corners picks…
Scottish Premiership
Saturday, 3pm
Before Christmas we noted that the three Scottish Premiership clubs with plastic pitches are the Top 3 sides in the division for Under 10.5 Corners (or Under 11 Corners) bets…
This weekend those three sides are all playing at Home, with all three opponents matching up well on the stats.
The Under 10.5 and Under 11 Corners prices aren’t the biggest you’ll see all season, but the numbers really do make these some of the best stats picks going right now…
Hamilton v Motherwell:
Hamilton Home games have given 9 out of 9 payouts for Under 10.5 Corners (100%). They take on Motherwell, who have a strong 70% Away record themselves including 4 payouts from their last 5 on the road.
- Under 11 Corners @ 4/7 (1.57) with Bet365 (Alternative Corners market), Skybet (Total Under Corners market), 1/2 (1.50) NetBet, 10Bet. Under 10.5 Corners @ 8/15 (1.53) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 1/2 (1.50) Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power
Livingston v Aberdeen:
Livingston Home games have given 9 out of 10 payouts for Under 10.5 Corners (90%). They host Aberdeen, who are ranked 3rd for this bet (75%), including 4 of their last 5 Away.
- Under 11 Corners @ 1/2 (1.50) with Skybet (Total Under Corners market), 4/9 (1.44) Bet365 (Alternative Corners market), 5/12 (1.41) NetBet, 10Bet. Under 10.5 Corners @ 12/25 (1.48) with 888 Sport, Unibet
Kilmarnock v St Mirren
Kilmarnock Home games have given 8 out of 9 payouts for Under 10.5 Corners (89%). They play St Mirren, who have 67% Away record including 3 of their last 5 on the road.
- Under 11 Corners @ 4/7 (1.57) with Skybet (Total Under Corners market), 4/9 (1.44) Bet365 (Alternative Corners market). Under 10.5 Corners @ 21/50 (1.42) with 888 Sport, Unibet
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Man Utd v Bournemouth:
Brighton v Everton:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 4/5 (1.80) with Betfred
Hamilton v Motherwell:
Livingston v Aberdeen:
- Under 11 Corners @ 1/2 (1.50) with Skybet
Kilmarnock v St Mirren:
- Under 11 Corners @ 4/7 (1.57) with Skybet
I’ll be back on Monday (31st Dec) with stats & picks for the New Year’s Day games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
