Picks & Analysis - including Arsenal v Cardiff tonight...
Tuesday 29th January 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Arsenal v Cardiff…
- Bolton v Reading…
Weekend Stats Review…
The stats went to form for our two weekend picks. Aston Villa’s 2-1 win v Ipswich was Villa’s 7th successive Home Over 2.5 Goals result, and they stay top of the Championship for that bet.
In the Saturday night TV game in League Two, the title-race clash between Bury and Lincoln ended 3-3, with Bury bossing the corners 10-2 to cover the -1 Corner Handicap and stay top of the division on the Most Corners stats.
The Scottish corners trends continued, too. Aberdeen v Kilmarnock had just 7 Total Corners. That’s 12 Kilmarnock games in a row going Under 10.5 Corners, and 13 of the last 14 for Aberdeen.
Celtic have returned from the winter break with back to back Home Wins, beating St Mirren 4-0 and then Hamilton 3-0. Celtic won the Most Corners and beat a large -5 Corner Handicap in both games, with the corner tallies 8-2 and 13-3 respectively. The Bhoys are the No.1 team in the Scottish Premiership for Most Corners bets, with an 86% overall strike-rate.
Midweek football…
There’s a decent schedule of midweek football, kicking off with 6 Premier League games this evening along with a handful of Football League fixtures.
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
Arsenal v Cardiff
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Arsenal 1/4 (1.25), Draw 6/1 (7.00), Cardiff 14/1 (15.00)
Arsenal have won 5 league games in a row at the Emirates and are short odds-on to make it 6 tonight.
The Corners stats match-up well for a bet on the Home side here…
Cardiff have won the Most Corners in just one of 11 Away Premier League games all season (9%). Opponents have won 4+ corners more than Cardiff in 7 of their last 8 Away games, with the -4 Corner Handicap paying out in 5 of those 8 games.
Arsenal have played the two other bottom three sides recently, and covered the -4 Corner Handicap in both encounters: 9-3 v Fulham this month (won the game 4-1) and 7-1 v Huddersfield in December (won 1-0).
- Arsenal -4 Corner Handicap @ 27/25 (2.08) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 21/20 (2.05) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, Evens (2.00) Skybet. Arsenal -4.5 Corner Handicap @ 53/50 (2.06) with Marathonbet
Corner Handicap markets also available with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor and William Hill.
Bolton v Reading
Championship
7.45pm
Match odds: Bolton 15/8 (2.88), Draw 11/5 (3.20), Reading 9.5 (2.80)
These two are in the relegation places and as the Match Result prices show, the bookies can’t split them.
Under 2.5 Goals is the standout stat here, paying out in 6 of Bolton’s last 7 Home games and 6 of Reading’s last 7 Away.
It was 1-0 at Reading in the reverse fixture. Bolton are the lowest scorers in the division, with just 8 goals scored in 14 outings at the Reebok Stadium.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365, Betfred, Marathonbet, 8/13 (1.62) in general
Stats Picks for tonight…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Arsenal v Cardiff:
- Arsenal -4 Corner Handicap @ 27/25 (2.08) with 888 Sport
Bolton v Reading:
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365
I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the stats & prices for Wednesday’s Premier League games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
