Premier League Predictions - plus Celtic v Rangers...
Friday 29th March 2019
In your Across the Leagues EXTRA email today:
- Stats for the Weekend…
- Celtic v Rangers…
- Premier League Predictions…
The Premier League returns this weekend. The Sky Sports ‘Super Sunday’ schedule is a busy one, with Cardiff v Chelsea followed by Liverpool v Tottenham. See below for the score Predictions.
And first up on Sky at Sunday lunchtime, the latest instalment of the Old Firm derby…
Stats for the Weekend…
Celtic v Rangers
Scottish Premiership
Sunday 12 noon – Sky Sports
Match odds: Celtic 3/4 (1.75), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Rangers 18/5 (4.60)
It would be easy to assume that Celtic-Rangers games always end up with loads of bookings. But that’s not the case. And with the bookies pricing up derby matches with higher-than-usual Total Cards lines, the ‘Over’ option is rarely the best value.
This weekend Bet365 go Over 6.5 Cards for the Old Firm clash. Only 2 of the last 10 league meetings have gone over that 6.5 line.
You have to go back seven years to March 2012 for the last ‘proper messy’ Cards score, when no fewer than three players saw Red at Ibrox.
A more compelling stat in recent times have been the trend for the Away team to get the Most Cards or Most Booking Points. That’s been the case in 5 out of 5 meetings in all comps since March last year.
- Celtic haven’t received the Most Cards or Booking Points in any of their 15 Home games in the Scottish Premiership this season
- Rangers have received 6 Red Cards this season, more than any other team in the Scottish Premiership. Four of those 6 Reds have come in Away games
Looking at the available betting markets…
Most Booking Points – Rangers is a best price 8/13 (1.62) with William Hill, 6/10 (1.60) Boylesports, 4/7 (1.57) Skybet. Rangers 0 Card Handicap is 8/13 with Bet365. Most Cards – Rangers is 1/2 (1.50) with 888 Sport, Unibet.
And if it does get particularly tetchy, the stats point to Rangers being the most likely to see Red. The ‘Away Team – Red Card’ option is a best price 7/2 (4.50) with 888 Sport, 3/1 (4.00) Boylesports.
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Every week I also share my predictions here, along with those of Paul Merson on Sky Sports and Mark Lawrenson on the BBC. Here are this week’s:
| GAME |
ME |
MERSON |
LAWRO |
| Fulham v Man City |
0-3 |
1-4 |
0-3 |
| Brighton v Southampton |
2-1 |
2-2 |
2-1 |
| Burnley v Wolves |
1-1 |
1-1 |
2-1 |
| Crystal Palace v Huddersfield |
3-1 |
2-1 |
2-0 |
| Leicester v Bournemouth |
2-1 |
2-1 |
2-1 |
| Man Utd v Watford |
4-0 |
2-1 |
2-0 |
| West Ham v Everton |
3-2 |
2-2 |
1-1 |
| Cardiff v Chelsea |
0-2 |
1-3 |
0-2 |
| Liverpool v Tottenham |
2-1 |
2-1 |
2-1 |
| Arsenal v Newcastle |
3-1 |
3-1 |
2-0 |
Enjoy the football…
P.S
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Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues Extra
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