Picks & Analysis - including Tottenham v Watford...
Wednesday 30th January 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Southampton v Crystal Palace...
- Tottenham v Watford...
Just like old times...
With 86 minutes on the clock, Man Utd were 0-2 down v Burnley...
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was no stranger to a late comeback in his playing days, and the stand-in boss channelled the spirit of Fergie & 90s-era United last night. Two late goals grabbed a 2-2 draw for his side. Man Utd’s record under Solskjaer now stands at W8 D1 L0 in all comps.
Rafael Benitez is another man with Premier League history, and he was in the headlines last night, too. His Newcastle side shocked reigning champions Man City 2-1 at St James’ Park. In doing do, the Magpies offered a massive helping hand in the title race to Rafa’s former club Liverpool.
Anyone backing the anti-Manchester double last night would have come agonisingly close to a crazy 200/1 double. Newcastle were 18/1 to beat City; Burnley were seconds away from a 9/1 win at Old Trafford.
Talking of surprise results, Cardiff were 7/1 to get the Most Corners at Arsenal last night. That outcome (corners score: 4-7) went completely against the stats. Until yesterday, Cardiff had failed to win the Most Corners in 10 out of 11 Away games.
That corners score took down our Arsenal Corner Handicap pick. But in the Championship the Under 2.5 Goals trend went to form at the Reebok Stadium – Bolton 1 Reading 1. That game was on course for a 0-0 until a 74th minute penalty opened the scoring late on. Under 2.5 Goals has now paid out in 7 of Bolton’s last 8 Home games and 7 of Reading’s last 8 Away.
Premier League tonight...
The midweek round of Premier League games continues with the remaining four fixtures this evening. Liverpool v Leicester is live on BT Sport at 8pm. Match of the Day is on BBC One at 10.45pm.
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
Southampton v Crystal Palace
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Southampton 6/4 (2.50), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Palace 21/10 (3.10)
These two are neck and neck in the Premier League table, level on 22 points each and hovering just above the relegation places.
The Total Goals market marginally favours Under 2.5 Goals tonight, but the stats flag this game up as an Over 2.5 Goals match-up...
Southampton are ranked 4th on our Premier League chart for Over 2.5 Goals, with a 73% Home record. Eight of 11 games at St Mary’s have seen 3+ Total Goals.
Overall, 6 of the last 7 Southampton games have gone Over 2.5 Goals, and 8 out of 10 in all comps since new manager Ralph Hasenhuttl arrived in December.
Palace are an 83% Under 2.5 Goals team at Home, but on the road over half their games have gone Over 2.5 – with an Away average of 3.2 Total Goals per game.
In the last three seasons at St Mary’s this fixture has ended: 1-2, 3-1, 4-1.
On more recent form, the Head-2-Head on our site shows Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in each of Southampton’s last 5 Home games and 4 of Palace’s last 5 Away – 100% v 80%.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (2.10) with Betfair Sportsbook, 21/20 (2.05) BetVictor, Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet, Evens (2.00) in general
Tottenham v Watford
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Tottenham 13/20 (1.65), Draw 3/1 (4.00), Watford 5/1 (6.00)
The Last 5 Home v Away stats highlight another good match-up here...
Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 of Tottenham’s last 5 league games at Wembley – and Watford’s Away record is the same.
Watford’s Over 10.5 Corners form actually stretches back to 9 of their last 10 on the road...
For the season, the Hornets have the highest Away strike-rate in the Premier League for this bet, with 9 of 11 games (82%) having 11+ Total Corners. Watford are ranked 3rd in the division overall.
- Over 10 Corners @ 20/21 (1.95) with BetVictor. Over 10.5 Corners @ 47/50 (1.94) with Marathonbet, 10/11 (1.91) 888 Sport, Unibet, Sportingbet, 20/23 (1.87) Boylesports, 17/20 (1.85) Betway
Total Corners markets also available with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, 188Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
Stats Picks for tonight…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Southampton v Crystal Palace:
Tottenham v Watford:
- Over 10 Corners @ 20/21 (1.95) with BetVictor
I’ll be back on Friday with the top-rated stats match-ups for the weekend games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
