Picks & Analysis - including West Ham v Wolves...
Friday 31st August 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- West Ham v Wolves…
- Sheffield United v Aston Villa…
- Sunderland v Oxford United…
Ronaldo, the King of Europe…
The Champions League draw was made last night. I don’t know if you managed to sit through the tedium of it. I gave up, shunning the pomp & ceremony of UEFA and turning instead to the text-banter updates on my phone.
I’m not moaning though. The Champions League has been a very reliable source of stats-bet profits for us over the years. The Group Stage draw being made means we’re one step closer to the hearing that famous Champions League theme tune on Tuesday & Wednesday nights…
The big headline is that the club that it seems we must now refer to as ‘Ronaldo’s Juventus’ have been draw in Group H with Cristiano’s former club, Man Utd. Young Boys are also in that group, so expect the tabloid journos to have some fun-and-puns with that one.
Elsewhere, Tottenham have got Barcelona and Liverpool have got PSG – so there are plenty of mouth-watering Group stage fixtures to look forward to.
Man City have been installed as the Champions League favourites, with what looks like a complete cakewalk of a Group draw against Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon and Hoffenheim. The bookies are taking no chances when it comes to pricing up Pep Guardiola’s side to win the trophy for the first time – City are 9/2 (5.50) in general, followed by Barcelona at 6/1 (7.00).
We’ll be taking a look at the Champions League in more detail before the opening round of games on 18th September. I’ll be covering every round of games with Picks & Analysis emails for you.
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
There’s a full fixture list across the Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two and the Scottish Premiership this weekend. All the latest stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
West Ham v Wolves
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: West Ham 8/5 (2.60), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Wolves 19/10 (2.90)
West Ham are the only pointless team in the Premier League, with a played 3 lost 3 record so far. Wolves impressed in a 1-1 draw against Man City last week.
The Match Result prices say there’s not much in it. The stats point to the Most Bookings market…
A Home team with a decent Most Bookings record is always one to look out for, as you often get a good price about them – with the traditional assumption being that a visiting team is more likely to get the most bookings.
So far this season West Ham have a 100% record for getting the Most Bookings. With the Yellow Card scores 6-2 at Home v Bournemouth, and 3-1 & 2-1 at Arsenal & Liverpool respectively.
This follows on from last season were the Hammers were ranked 3rd overall on our Premier League chart for Most Booking Points bets.
In comparison, in the 2017/18 Championship stats only three teams had a better-behaved record than Wolves in this market.
Wolves have started life in the Premier League in a similarly disciplined fashion. They’ve so far received just 2 Yellow Cards in total. With opponents landing the Most Cards/ Booking Points bet in all 3 games (Man City, Leicester and Everton). That includes drawing two Red Cards from their opponents, too.
The early signs suggest Wolves could join the ranks of other Premier League newcomers that have put good discipline at the heart of their efforts (see: Burnley, Huddersfield, Brighton and Bournemouth in recent years).
The bookies make West Ham the favourites to win this match, although they haven’t got a point to their name so far. The stats say they should be the favourites for the Most Bookings, but they’re not – and that makes them a standout pick this weekend.
As you’ll see on the ‘Bet Now’ link below, Oddschecker isn’t much use for finding this bet. But I’ve gone through all the markets & prices available and there are several options available to us:
- Most Booking Points – West Ham @ 11/8 (2.38) with William Hill, Skybet, 6/5 (2.20) Boylesports
Also available: Most Cards – West Ham @ 13/10 (2.30) with 888 Sport, Unibet. West Ham – 0 Card Handicap @ 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365.
Bet Now – latest odds here
Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 188Bet):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Sheffield United v Aston Villa
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Sheff Utd 7/5 (2.40), Draw 9/4 (3.25), Villa 11/5 (3.20)
Sheff Utd have won 3 in a row - with the scores 3-0, 2-1 and 2-1. Villa have drawn their last 3 and are yet to keep a Clean Sheet in 5 Championship games.
The Both Teams to Score prices are 50-50, but I’m surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals as the underdog in the Total Goals market…
Sheff Utd are 100% for that bet so far (5 out of 5).
Villa have given 3 payouts out of 5. They’ve been involved in 2-2, 3-2 and 3-1 score-lines already this season, and the stats say their hosts can add to that.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 31/25 (2.24) with Marathonbet, 6/5 (2.20) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred
Bet Now – latest odds here
Sunderland v Oxford United
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Sunderland 1/2 (1.50), Draw 7/2 (4.50), Oxford 13/2 (7.50)
This is 2nd plays 22nd in the fledgling 2018/19 League One table, but it’s early days to be taking odds-on for a Home Win in a division like this…
Sunderland have won 3 on the spin but as opposed to the Match Result price, the stats show the ‘high goals’ option at slightly bigger odds is the bet to take. The Black Cats come into this with 2-1, 4-1 and 3-0 score-lines to their name, and have given 4 out of 5 payouts for Over 2.5 Goals overall.
Oxford are also 80% for Over 2.5 Goals so far, with their recent results seeing a 3-1 win and 3-2 & 4-1 defeats.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 37/50 (1.74) with Marathonbet, 8/11 (1.73) William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, 888 Sport, Unibet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
West Ham v Wolves:
- Most Booking Points – West Ham @ 11/8 (2.38) with William Hill
Sheffield United v Aston Villa:
Sunderland v Oxford United:
I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the stats, and a look at the upcoming fixture list.
P.S
I’ll also be in your inbox this afternoon with Across the Leagues EXTRA, containing more standout stats from our site, along with my weekend score Predictions for the Premier League.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
