Picks & Analysis - including Bournemouth v Man Utd...
Friday 2nd November 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Bournemouth v Man Utd…
- Stoke v Middlesbrough…
- Lincoln v Forest Green…
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
There’s a full programme of Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premiership fixtures this weekend. And there are some good-looking match-ups on the stats…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities…
Bournemouth v Man Utd
Premier League
Saturday, 12.30pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Bournemouth 14/5 (3.80), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Man Utd 21/20 (2.05)
We kick off with the Saturday lunchtime Premier League game, which features two strong sets of stats…
Bournemouth are proving to be an entertaining side again this season. Five of their last 6 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. And the Cherries have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their 8 Home games in all comps.
Man Utd are joint-top of our Premier League Over 2.5 Goals table with 8 payouts from 10 games. That 80% strike-rate includes 4 out of 5 Away games. United’s last 4 league games have seen score-lines of 2-1 (H), 2-2 (A), 3-2 (H), 3-1 (A).
Man Utd also stand out for the Most Bookings here…
The Red Devils have landed Most Cards or Most Booking Points bets in their last 4 Away games (4 out of 5 overall). Only West Ham (13) have received more Yellow Cards on the road than Man Utd’s 12.
Bournemouth on the other hand are yet to get the Most Bookings in any of their 10 games. Opponents have landed that bet in the Cherries’ last 6 games.
- Most Booking Points – Man Utd @ 11/8 (2.38) with Skybet, 23/20 (2.15) Boylesports. Man Utd -0.5 Card Handicap @ 13/10 (2.30) with 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet. Man Utd 0 Card Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365
Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Stoke v Middlesbrough
Championship
Saturday, 5.30pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Stoke 6/4 (2.50), Draw 11/5 (3.20), Middlesbrough 21/10 (3.10)
Tony Pulis is an ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ manager if ever there was one. Pulis returns to his former club Stoke in the live Saturday evening Championship game, with his Middlesbrough side the form team in the country for Under 2.5 Goals…
That bet has paid out in 12 of Boro’s last 13 league games. With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see them in 1st place on the Championship Under 2.5 Goals standings on our site (80% overall record).
Stoke make this one of the stats match-ups of the weekend. Under 2.5 Goals has paid out in 5 of their last 7 Home games (71%), and in each of their last 5 games.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/20 (1.65) with Marathonbet, BetVictor, 8/13 (1.62) in general
Lincoln v Forest Green
League Two
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Lincoln 10/11 (1.91), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Forest Green 3/1 (4.00)
League Two leaders Lincoln are favourites for the Home Win, but The Imps are without a win in 3 games.
The standout stats here are for Both Teams to Score…
Lincoln have kept just one Clean Sheet in their last 6, and Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 6 of their 8 Home games (75%).
Forest Green are the No.1 team in the division for Both Teams to Score, with 14 out of 16 payouts overall – and an unblemished 100% Away record of 8 games out of 8.
The stats make a clear case for goals at both ends…
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365, William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred, NetBet, 10Bet
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Bournemouth v Man Utd:
- Most Booking Points – Man Utd @ 11/8 (2.38) with Skybet
Stoke v Middlesbrough:
Lincoln v Forest Green:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365
I’ll be back on Monday with the weekend Stats Review and a look at the Monday Night Football on Sky Sports. Then on Tuesday we’ll be back in action with the Champions League.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
