Picks & Analysis – Champions League tonight…
Tuesday 12th February 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Roma v Porto…
- Millwall v Sheffield Wednesday…
The Champions League returns…
The Champions League Knockout stage kicks off tonight. It’s good to have Europe’s biggest club competition back. And this year the 1st Legs don’t even clash with Valentine’s Day…
The action starts this evening with two games, including a big one at Old Trafford with Man Utd v PSG.
- See below for tonight’s standout stats & prices. There are also midweek games in the Football League, including a full Championship programme across tonight & tomorrow evening
Our weekend Stats Picks gave two out of three winners. The Over 2.5 Goals stats went true to form – and in quite spectacular style…
After a 3-3 draw with Sheffield United, Aston Villa remain the No.1 team in the Championship for Over 2.5 Goals. They’re on a crazy 8-game streak for that bet at Villa Park with the other score-lines being: 2-1, 2-2, 2-2, 2-3, 2-2, 5-5, 4-2.
Man City hammered Chelsea 6-0, extending their Home Over 2.5 Goals record to 93% with 13 payouts from 14 games at the Etihad stadium.
On to tonight’s games…
Man Utd v PSG
Champions League
Tuesday, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Man Utd 13/10 (2.30), Draw 13/5 (3.60), PSG 11/5 (3.20)
When the Last 16 draw was first made, PSG were the clear favourites for this. But things have changed since December with Jose Mourinho gone and stand-in manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer unbeaten in his first 11 games in charge of Man Utd.
Add in the fact that PSG recently suffered their first defeat of the season (at Lyon), and two of their three star strikers (Neymar and Edinson Cavani) are out injured for this game – and all of a sudden Man Utd are going off as the match favourites.
There’s been a swing in the Champions League Outright Winner market, too, with Man Utd trimmed from 40/1 to 28/1 since all that happened.
No stats picks for us here, but this is undoubtedly the game of the evening.
Roma v Porto
Champions League
Tuesday, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Roma 21/20 (2.05), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Porto 3/1 (4.00)
At Across the Leagues we focus on the stats. While most eyes will be on Old Trafford tonight, we’ll be following the action in Rome with keen interest…
We had this one flagged up as a potential ‘high goals’ game as soon as the names came out of the hat…
Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in 5 of Roma’s 6 games in the Group stage – and in 9 of their last 10 in the Champions League overall. There have been 3+ Total Goals in 10 of 13 Roma games in all competitions since the start of December.
Porto’s last 4 Champions League games have all gone Over 2.5 Goals. As have 10 of last 14 in the competition.
There’s plenty of goal threat on the pitch here, with Edin Dzeko and Stephan El Shaarawy experienced attackers for Roma. And the Italian side also have 19-year-old striker Nicolo Zaniolo, who at 9/2 (5.50) is the best price of that trio in the Anytime Scorer market.
The Corners stats also stand out here, with a bet on the Home side in mind…
Roma are ranked 6th of 32 Champions League teams for the highest total number of corner kicks won so far this season. Porto in comparison are 15th of 16 from the sides left in the competition.
Roma have got 22 Corners For in 3 Home Group games, Porto just 9 Corners For from their 3 Away games.
Roma have won the Most Corners in each of their last 5 Home games in all comps. In the Champions League, they won the corner count in 2 out of 3 games in the Group stage – and in 6 of their last 8 Champions League Home games going back to last season.
Porto were out-cornered in all 3 Away games in the Group stage, and in 6 of their last 7 Away in Europe overall.
Opponents have covered a -2 Corner Handicap in 5 of Porto’s last 7 Champions League Away trips. Roma have landed the -2 Corner Handicap (winning 3+ corners more than opponents) in their last 3 Home games in Italy’s Serie A.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, Betfred, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet, Marathonbet
- Roma -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with 888 Sport, Unibet, BetVictor, Evens (2.00) Bet365, Skybet, NetBet, 10Bet. Roma -2.5 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Marathonbet
Corner Handicap markets also available with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway.
Millwall v Sheffield Wednesday
Championship
Tuesday, 7.45pm – Sky Sports (Red Button)
Match odds: Millwall 5/4 (2.25), Draw 9/4 (3.25), Sheff Wed 13/5 (3.60)
There’s also a very strong Most Corners match-up in the Championship tonight…
Millwall have the joint-best Home record for Most Corners, landing that bet in 12 out of 15 games at The Den (80%) – including each of the last 9 in a row.
Sheff Wed are almost the complete opposite, ranked 23rd of 24 teams in the division for Most Corners, producing just 2 corner wins from 15 road trips all season (13%). Wednesday have been out-cornered in 6 of their last 7 Away games.
This is one of the clearest Home v Away stats trends we’ll see all season.
- Most Corners – Millwall @ 4/7 (1.57) with Skybet, 4/9 (1.44) William Hill, Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook
Stats Pick for tonight…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Roma v Porto:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365
- Roma -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with 888 Sport
Millwall v Sheffield Wednesday:
- Most Corners – Millwall @ 4/7 (1.57) with Skybet
We’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the standout stats & prices for Wednesday’s games, including Tottenham v Borussia Dortmund and Ajax v Real Madrid in the Champions League.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
