Picks & Analysis – first bets of the season…
Friday 17th August 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Tottenham v Fulham…
- Leicester v Wolves…
Ready for action…
It’s week two in the Premier League. Our website is freshly updated with the latest betting stats for every team. The bookies have their markets up – some with over 400 options per game.
Time to get started with our first picks of the new season…
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
Teams in the Football League and Scotland have played a game or two more, but the Premier League gets my full focus today.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Tottenham v Fulham
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Tottenham 2/7 (1.29), Draw 5/1 (6.00), Fulham 11/1 (12.00)
Tottenham started their campaign with a 2-1 win at Newcastle last weekend, while Fulham were beaten 0-2 at Home by Crystal Palace.
The Match Result market is all about Tottenham, with Spurs short odds-on to win and newly-promoted Fulham the rank outsiders.
We can get a bigger price by looking to the stats…
Tottenham – playing at Wembley – won the Most Corners in 14 out of 19 Home games last season. That’s a 74% strike-rate only bettered in the Premier League by title winners Man City. Before that, in 2016/17, Tottenham had a 79% Home record for Most Corners bets.
Spurs are just 1/5 (1.20) at best for the Most Corners this weekend, but the -3 or -3.5 Corner Handicap is the option we want here. That bet pays out if Tottenham win 4+ corners more than Fulham. They beat that handicap in over half of their Home games last season.
Fulham won the Most Corners in just 9 of 23 Away games in the Championship last season (39%). Logic would suggest they’ll do well to improve on that with the step up to the top division.
Last season in the Premier League overall (Home & Away), only champions Man City won more corner kicks than Spurs’ 247 from 38 games.
It’s early days in the new season of course, but Tottenham are a side I’m happy to back to continue their established corner-winning form. They haven’t made any major changes to the team at all, and Mauricio Pochettino has been in charge for over four years now.
As the Match Result market underlines, Tottenham are expected to win this game. But with last season’s 2nd-top scorer Heung-Min Son out injured, and top scorer Harry Kane having the curious record of not scoring in August for four years and counting, backing Spurs to win a pile of corners in pursuit of victory looks the better option than the short price on them to win the game.
- Tottenham -3.5 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 (1.85) with Marathonbet, Tottenham -3 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 (1.85) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365, 4/5 (1.80) William Hill
Corner Handicap markets also available with BetVictor, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet.
Bet Now – latest odds here
Leicester v Wolves
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Leicester 11/10 (2.10), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Wolves 14/5 (3.80)
Another newly-promoted team travel to a strong Home corner-winner here, with underdogs Wolves making the trip across to Leicester…
A key stat here is that last season Leicester won the Most Corners in 10 out 13 Premier League Home games v non-Top 6 sides. In all 10 of those games the Foxes also landed the -1 or -1.5 Corner Handicap, winning 2+ corners more than opponents.
Championship winners Wolves managed just 10 Most Corners wins from 23 Away games (43%).
Again, it’s very early days in 2018/19 but like Tottenham, Leicester have the same manager in charge from the last campaign – and solid Home corner-winning form to their name.
- Leicester -1.5 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 (1.95) with Marathonbet, Leicester -1 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet, Betway, 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Bet Now – latest odds here
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Tottenham v Fulham:
- Tottenham -3.5 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 (1.85) with Marathonbet
Leicester v Wolves:
- Leicester -1.5 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 (1.95) with Marathonbet
I’ll be back next week – starting with a look at the stats and markets for Crystal Palace v Liverpool, which is the first live ‘Monday Night Football’ of the season on Sky Sports.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
