Picks & Analysis - Football League tonight...
Tuesday 21st August 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis – Football League tonight…
- Bristol Rovers v Portsmouth…
- Crawley v Swindon…
Clean Sheets for Klopp…
‘Liverpool to win the Premier League’ is trending on Oddschecker this morning. A 2-0 win at Crystal Palace last night made it 2 wins out of 2 for Jurgen Klopp’s side – a perfect start in terms of maximum points and no goals conceded.
A second consecutive Clean Sheet for new Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson means Wilfried Zaha will have to wait a bit longer to get the goal that makes him Palace’s all-time top Premier League scorer.
Zaha was our 3/1+ Anytime Scorer pick; opting for the more speculative price with Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score the favourites in the betting and at shorter, odds-on prices. Zaha got his one chance in the 72nd minute, but it wasn’t gilt-edged.
With 6 goals from 2 games and Mo Salah and Sadio Mane already finding the net, it looks like the Reds’ attack will keep their side of the bargain when it comes to providing goals this season. But if Klopp really has fixed that defence, then we might want to tread carefully with Liverpool in the Total Goals and Both Teams to Score markets.
Midweek Picks & Analysis…
We turn our attention to the Football League today with midweek fixtures in the Championship, League One and League Two.
This season Sky Sports have a new feature letting you choose from a selection of live streams for midweek Championship matches. That’s good news as the more TV coverage that games get, the more markets the bookies tend to offer.
Here’s my take on today’s stats, prices and opportunities. The lower league stats catch the eye…
Bristol Rovers v Portsmouth
League One
Tonight, 7.45pm
Match odds: Rovers 17/10 (2.70), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Portsmouth 17/10 (2.70)
Portsmouth have won 3 out of 3 so far but the bookies can’t split these sides in the Match Result market. The stats point to goals at both ends…
Bristol Rovers were the No.1 team in League One for Home Both Teams to Score payouts last season, with the 2017/18 stats on our site showing Rovers had an 83% record for that bet (19 out of 23 games).
They’ve carried that on with 4 out of 4 Both Teams to Score results in all comps at the start of this season, with a brace of 2-1 defeats (one Home, one Away) followed by back-to-back 2-1 wins (one Home, one Away).
After a 2-1 defeat to Accrington in week two, Both Teams to Score has now paid out in 12 Rovers Home games in a row – and 13 out of 13 in comps at the Memorial Stadium this calendar year.
That’s the kind of 100% trend we should follow.
Portsmouth have been among the goals so far too, with their last 3 games in all comps seeing goals at both ends, including a 4-1 win (H) v Oxford in the league on Saturday and a 2-1 win (A) at Blackpool before that.
The market says there’s not much between the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ options here, but the stats clearly point to Both Teams to Score.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, 20/23 (1.87) Ladbrokes, Coral, 188Bet, 17/20 (1.85) William Hill
Bet Now – latest odds here
Crawley v Swindon
League Two
Tonight, 7.45pm
Match odds: Crawley 6/4 (2.50), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Swindon 15/8 (2.88)
Another close set of Match Result prices here. And another strong set of Goals stats, too…
This time it’s the Over 2.5 Goals numbers that stand out. Swindon have started the season with 3 out of 3 ‘Over’ results in League Two, winning 3-2 (twice) at Home and losing 4-1 Away. In the two most recent games, Over 2.5 Goals has been settled before half time.
These numbers are carrying on from last season, where Swindon were our 1st place League Two side for this bet including an unrivalled 74% Away Over 2.5 Goals strike-rate (17 out of 23 games).
Crawley were ranked 6th of 24 teams for Over 2.5 Goals last season. They’ve played one Home game so far in the new campaign and that ended in a 3-1 defeat. That takes Crawley’s Home Over 2.5 Goals record to 8 payouts from their last 10 games at the Checkatrade Stadium.
The bookies’ prices make the Total Goals market 50-50. The stats say Over 2.5 Goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365, 188Bet, 10/11 (1.91) Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Marathonbet, BetVictor
Bet Now – latest odds here
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Bristol Rovers v Portsmouth
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365
Crawley v Swindon
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365
I’ll be back tomorrow with a stats update, as well as a look at the Wednesday night fixtures in the Championship.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
