Picks & Analysis for the Christmas weekend...
Friday 21st December 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- West Ham v Watford…
- Rotherham v West Brom…
- Blackpool v Barnsley…
- Lincoln City v Newport County…
- Hamilton v Kilmarnock…
Let the festivities commence…
Sky Sports will be getting their snow-splattered graphics out tonight. The Christmas action kicks off with Wolves v Liverpool live at 8pm – the first of a huge pile of games taking place over the next 10 days.
The football doesn’t stop – and neither does your Across the Leagues service…
Our unique betting stats are updated on the website after every round of games. The latest Head-2-Heads will be online before every set of fixtures.
I’ll also be emailing you over Christmas & New Year, with stats round-ups and the latest advice. Look out for emails with Picks & Analysis on:
- Mon 24th Dec – covering the Boxing Day games
- Fri 28th Dec – weekend games
- Mon 31st Dec – New Year’s Day fixture list
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
West Ham v Watford
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: West Ham 11/8 (2.38), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Watford 21/10 (3.10)
West Ham have won 4 Premier League games in a row, but they’ve got a Home Corners trend that is even stronger…
Only two teams in the division have won more corner kicks at Home than the Hammers. West Ham are on a 5-game run at the London Stadium for both Most Corners and -1 Corner Handicap bets.
In comparison, Watford have won the Most Corners in just 2 of 8 Away games all season.
The stats match-up is clear here: West Ham to dominate the corner tally.
- West Ham -1 Corner Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365, 11/10 (2.10) 888 Sport, Unibet, 21/20 (2.05) NetBet, 10Bet, Evens (2.00) BetVictor, Skybet, 19/20 (1.95) William Hill, 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Rotherham v West Brom
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Rotherham 7/2 (4.50), Draw 11/4 (3.75), West Brom 5/6 (1.83)
A strong Both Teams to Score match-up here…
The stats show Rotherham have had 8 consecutive Both Teams to Score results, and 5 out of 5 at Home.
West Brom have given 8 payouts from their last 9 games, 6 in a row – and are the No.1 team in the Championship for this bet with an 82% overall record (18 out of 22 games).
Rotherham haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in any of their last 5 at the New York Stadium. With 11 Away games played, the Baggies are still searching for a first Clean Sheet on the road.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/11 (1.73) with Betfred, 7/10 (1.70) William Hill, Marathonbet, Boylesports, 4/6 (1.67) in general
Blackpool v Barnsley
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Blackpool 5/2 (3.50), 9/4 (3.25), Barnsley 5/4 (2.25)
The Top 10 Tables on our site show that only Celtic and Man City have better recent form than Barnsley for Most Corners bets.
And while Celtic and Man City would need to be backed with large Corner Handicaps to overcome, we can back Barnsley this weekend in the straight-up Most Corners or Corners Match Bet market.
The Tykes have won the Most Corners in each of their last 7 games, with 4 payouts in their last 5 Away games. For the season overall, Barnsley are ranked No.1 in League One for Most Corners bets, including a 73% Away strike-rate (8 out of 11 Away games).
Host Blackpool match up well. They’ve won the Most Corners in just 4 of 11 Home games (36%), and in just one of their previous 5 outings at Bloomfield Road.
Blackpool are averaging 4.8 Corners For per Home game. Barnsley are averaging 7.4 Corners For per Away game.
- Most Corners – Barnsley @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet, 4/5 (1.80) William Hill. Corners Match Bet – Barnsley @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365. Winner Corners FT (Full Time) – Barnsley @ 5/7 (1.71) with NetBet, 10Bet
Lincoln City v Newport County
League Two
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Lincoln 4/5 (1.80), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Newport 7/2 (4.50)
Lincoln are top of League Two, and are also in 1st place when it comes to Home Both Teams to Score results, with 9 payouts from 11 games at Sincil Bank (82%).
There have been goals at both ends in each of The Imps’ last 5 at Home.
Newport are 6th in the league table – and 2nd for Both Teams to Score. This bet has paid out in 11 of County’s last 12 games, and 6 in a row on the road.
You won’t see a much better stats match-up than this.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 20/23 (1.87) with Betfair Sportsbook, 5/6 (1.83) Boylesports, Marathonbet, NetBet, 10Bet, 4/5 (1.80) in general
Hamilton v Kilmarnock
Scottish Premiership
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Hamilton 4/1 (5.00), Draw 13.5 (3.60), Kilmarnock 4/5 (1.80)
In Wednesday’s email we looked at the low Total Corners stats being posted by the three Scottish Premiership clubs with synthetic pitches – Hamilton, Kilmarnock and Livingston. Hamilton are at Home this weekend – and they host Kilmarnock…
This is 1st plays joint-2nd on our Under 10.5 Corners stats:
Hamilton have a 100% Home record for this bet with 8 out of 8 games seeing fewer than 11 corners.
Killie’s Under 10.5 Corners run is at 7 games in a row, and 9 of their last 10.
The price isn’t a knockout here – but the stats are. Other Total Corners option available will offer bigger odds for Under 10 or Under 9.5 Corners. But the strongest-rated bet is Under 11 or Under 10.5.
- Under 11 Corners @ 4/7 (1.57) with Skybet, 1/2 (1.50) Bet365. Under 10.5 Corners @ 8/15 (1.53) with 888 Sport, Unibet
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
West Ham v Watford:
- West Ham -1 Corner Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365
Rotherham v West Brom:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/11 (1.73) with Betfred
Blackpool v Barnsley:
- Most Corners – Barnsley @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet
Lincoln City v Newport County:
Hamilton v Kilmarnock:
- Under 11 Corners @ 4/7 (1.57) with Skybet
I’ll be back on Monday with a look ahead to the Boxing Day games.
Have a great Christmas. And enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
