Picks & Analysis – 3 bets for the weekend…
Friday 28th September 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Newcastle v Leicester…
- Bolton v Derby…
- Rochdale v Portsmouth…
10 years of winners…
Before we get onto the weekend football, we have a special occasion to mark…
My colleague Nick Pullen is celebrating a remarkable 10 years of publishing his racing advice. In that time Nick has dished out some spectacular winners – not least a 100/1 Grand National winner back in 2013.
And so far this year Nick’s Against the Crowd service is in profit to the tune of 100 points.
To mark the 10-year anniversary, my Publisher has put together a very special offer. Giving you the chance to join Nick’s service at a significantly discounted price, with a generous trial period, too. Full details will be released tomorrow. Look out for an email from me about this on Saturday morning.
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
We have a full programme of Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premiership fixtures this weekend.
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Newcastle v Leicester
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Newcastle 13/8 (2.63), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Leicester 2/1 (3.00)
The Match Result prices say this is anyone’s. The Total Goals stats say the Over 2.5 option is good value as the underdog here…
A 0-0 last weekend at current Premier League No.1 Under 2.5 Goals side Crystal Palace can be overlooked. At Home, Newcastle are 3 from 3 for Over 2.5 Goals and yet to keep a Clean Sheet at St James’ Park.
Leicester are 100% Away for 3+ Total Goals, and 83% overall – with Over 2.5 Goals paying out in 5 of the Foxes’ 6 Premier League games so far and no Clean Sheets on the road.
Last season there were plenty of goals in this fixture with a 1-2 score-line at Leicester and 2-3 at Newcastle.
The price stands out here, with the market making the Under option the favourite. The stats & form say otherwise.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/8 (2.38) with Marathonbet, 13/10 (2.30) BetVictor, 5/4 (2.25) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/5 (2.20) Bet365, Betfred, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway
Bet Now – latest odds here
Bolton v Derby
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Bolton 3/1 (4.00), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Derby 6/5 (2.20)
After knocking Man Utd out of the EFL Cup, Frank Lampard’s Derby side are priced up as favourites for the Away Win here. The Corner stats get my attention…
Bolton are our No.1 Championship side for Over 10.5 Corners bets, including 4 out of 4 payouts at Home. With the totals: 13, 18, 13, 14.
Derby are 75% Away, with that bet paying out in 3 of their 4 Away games, and 4 of their last 5 league games overall.
The Head-2-Head on our website for this game shows Bolton Home games are averaging a high 14.8 Total Corners, with Derby Away games averaging 12.8.
- Over 10 Corners @ 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365, Over 10.5 Corners @ 5/6 (1.83) with NetBet, 10Bet, 4/5 (1.80) 888 Sport, Unibet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Rochdale v Portsmouth
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Rochdale 9/5 (2.80), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Portsmouth 8/5 (2.60)
The Match Result prices are closely-bunched here. The Total Goals market is 50-50 too, but the stats make a clear case for Over 2.5 Goals…
Rochdale are our No.1 League One side for that bet, with 8 out of 9 payouts overall – and 4 out of 4 at Home. In all comps, Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 10 of Rochdale’s 12 games this season.
Portsmouth are 3 from 4 Away for Over 2.5, and 8 of their last 10 games in all comps have seen 3+ goals scored.
When these sides met back in April, it finished 3-3…
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 24/25 (1.96) with Marathonbet, 188Bet, 10/11 (1.91) Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betfred
Bet Now – latest odds here
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Newcastle v Leicester:
Bolton v Derby:
- Over 10 Corners @ 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365
Rochdale v Portsmouth:
I’ll be back on Monday with a weekend Stats Review.
And then we have a big week to look forward to with Champions League Match-day Two on Tuesday & Wednesday…
P.S
I’ll also be in your inbox this afternoon with Across the Leagues EXTRA, including weekend score predictions for the Premier League, and some more standout stats from on our website.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
