German playoff tonight - and a 28/1 shot...
Thursday 2nd July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Angles, analysis & advice for tonight…
- German playoffs – Werder Bremen v Heidenheim…
- 28/1 shot for Atalanta v Napoli…
German playoff tonight – and a 28/1 shot…
I said it was ‘party time’ in Salzburg last night. Going after a big Correct Score on the newly-crowned champions was certainly the right route to take…
5-2 goal-fest and a Rapid result…
The final score was Salzburg 5 Sturm Graz 2. With a late flurry of goals (as well as a red card for the away team), we weren’t far off landing on the 5-1 Correct Score at 17/1.
Being in the right ballpark at a good price is as much as we can hope for on a regular basis. If we do that well, then the big wins will come along often enough to make it all smiles in the long run.
My betting approach is all about the long term, and about attractive prices. I’ll be writing to you with much more on that topic soon.
Yesterday evening’s business ended okay for us, with 12/5 (3.40) picks Rapid Vienna winning 3-1. That result piles more woe on LASK Linz, who must be ready for the Austrian Bundesliga season to end this weekend…
LASK have faded badly since the restart, having had the stuffing knocked out of them by receiving a points deduction for resuming full-contact training before they were supposed to.
In today’s analysis I’m asking two questions in my research: what usually happens in the German playoffs? And what’s the best market in which to capitalise on Atlanta’s high-goals stats?
We’ll start in Germany…
Werder Bremen v Heidenheim tonight…
The German playoffs see the 16th place side in the Bundesliga take on the 3rd place side from Bundesliga II.
It’s a two-leg tie, and away goals count. The top-flight side plays at home for the 1st leg.
Bundesliga stalwarts Werder Bremen are desperate to preserve their status. Visitors Heidenheim are looking to reach the top tier for the first time.
The promotion playoffs are always good fun in the English Football League (unless your team loses, that is). But I wouldn’t be against this format being used in the Premier League to decide the third relegation spot…
Last year, third-bottom in the top-flight v the 3rd place finisher in the Championship would’ve seen Cardiff playing Leeds Utd.
A cross-division playoff like that would be worth it, if only to see what astronomical figure the newspapers & Sky Sports News came up with for the promotion price-tag. As it is, the Championship playoff final is already deemed one of the most lucrative matches in football.
Here's what the historical stats say for the German playoffs:
- In 8 of the 11 seasons played in this format since 2008/09, the Bundesliga club has prevailed (stayed up)
- Bundesliga II clubs have gone up via the playoff in just 3 of the last 11 seasons. Last year Union Berlin came up at the expense of Stuttgart, 2-2 on aggregate and winning on the away goals rule
The weight of history is firmly in favour of Bremen staying up. The Bundesliga club are 1/4 (1.25) with Bet365 to come out on top over the two legs.
You have to go back to 2011/12 to find the last time a Bundesliga II side won the away leg. Werder Bremen are 1/2 (1.50) for the home win this evening.
Considering the way both teams ended the regular season, the Match Handicap market looks the place to be this evening…
Bremen won two of their last four games to move out of the automatic relegation spots and grab this playoff lifeline. The scores in those two wins were 5-1 at Paderborn, and then 6-1 v Cologne on the final day.
Heidenheim lost 3-0 at Bundesliga II champions Arminia Bielefeld on Sunday. The latest in a set of poor away results for the 3rd place side, coming on the back of 0-0, 2-1 (lost), 0-0 and 3-0 (lost) away score-lines since the restart in May.
Add in the fact that Bremen beat Heidenheim 4-1 in the German Cup earlier this season, and the case is there for a strong home score-line in this important 1st leg encounter.
If you’re looking for a goalscorer to follow, the Bremen names to look out for in my opinion are Milot Rashica, Davy Klaassen and Leonardo Bittencourt. Those guys are all around 2/1 (3.00) each in the Anytime Scorer betting.
With those recent score-lines in mind, my selection here is Bremen to win by more than one goal. That -1 Match Handicap is available at around 7/5 (2.40).
28/1 shot for Atalanta v Napoli…
The early 6.30pm kick off in Italy should be an entertaining one. It seems Atalanta know no other way to play…
Atalanta’s last nine Serie A games have all gone Over 2.5 Goals, with six of those going over the 3.5 Goals line, too. And eight of those nine also paying out on Both Teams to Score.
The League Stats on our website show that, for the season overall, Atalanta are ranked No.1 in Serie A for Over 2.5 Goals, including a whopping 13 out of 14 home games (93%). They are the top scorers in the division.
Our Both Teams to Score table shows that Napoli are regular contenders for scoring and conceding, too:
Both teams bring match-winning form to this evening’s game. Atalanta have won six in a row in Serie A, and Napoli are on a five-game winning run…
The Match Result market has the home win at 11/10 (2.10), the draw at 11/4 (3.75) and Napoli at 23/10 (3.30).
In terms of utilising the goals stats, Over 2.5 Goals is odds-on at 1/2 (1.50), and Over 3.5 Goals is 5/4 (2.25) at best. Both Teams to Score is 4/9 (1.44).
In the Match Result & Both Teams to Score market, Atalanta are 12/5 (3.40), Napoli are 7/2+ (4.50+), and the Score Draw is 3/1 (4.00).
I’m telling you all those prices so you can see the options. If you like one or two of them, don’t let me put you off.
The formbook says this one could have some kind of rollercoaster score-line. And for me, that makes it worth going after a more speculative option…
Half Time/Full Time for the big prices…
The Half Time/Full Time (HT/FT) market allows you to bet on a variety of permutations. The outcome we’re interested in here is for one team to be winning after 45 minutes, but the other side to turn it around by the final whistle…
- Atalanta have won 6 games in a row, but have only been ahead at half time in one of them. They have come back to win after being a goal down at half time in 3 of those 6 games
- 2 of Napoli’s last 6 away games Serie A have seen them losing at half time, but winning at full time
This tactic (backing both teams) has proved successful in three of Atalanta’s last five home games in Serie A. Losing 1-2 v Spal (1-0 HT), winning 2-1 v Roma (0-1 HT) and 3-2 v Lazio (1-2 HT).
There’s enough evidence here for us to get involved with a couple of big prices for the HT/FT turnarounds. With a top price 22/1 available for the Napoli/ Atalanta outcome, and 28/1 vice versa.
Today’s picks
Germany, Bundesliga Playoffs
Werder Bremen v Heidenheim (7.30pm, BT Sport)
Italy, Serie A
Atalanta v Napoli (6.30pm)
I’ll be back tomorrow with stats, analysis and advice for the weekend.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
