The Premier League table according to 10,000 simulations...
Friday 3rd April 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Premier League final table prediction...
- Chelsea for a Top 4 Finish...
- Bournemouth to go down...
The Premier League table according to 10,000 simulations...
The coronavirus situation continues to change day by day. Regarding football, we should know more soon about the plans for the remainder of the 2019/20 season in the UK.
As it stands, all 20 teams in the Premier League still have at least 9 of their 38 games left to play...
At the top of the table, Liverpool are 25 points clear of Man City. In the battle for a Top 4 Finish and a Champions League qualification spot, Leicester are 3rd. With the Foxes followed by six teams down to Arsenal in 9th, all within 8 pts of each other.
The three Relegation places are currently occupied by Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich. Watford and West Ham are only ahead of Bournemouth on goal difference. There are five teams up to Newcastle in 13th that are all within 8 pts of the drop-zone.
Here’s the current Premier League table, taken from your Across the Leagues website:
The final table prediction...
Data supplier OPTA have used the current pause in the football to predict how the final Premier League table will end up.
Using attack & defence stats from the last four seasons, weighting recent form highest, the OPTA engine has gone through all of the remaining fixtures to produce a final-table prediction.
That process was carried out 10,000 times, with those simulations used to generate the final standings that have Liverpool still top of the league (no surprises there), and some good news and bad news for other clubs at each end of the table...
Here’s OPTA’s predicted end-of-season table:
Bad news for Bournemouth, good news for Chelsea...
The simulated end-of-season table has Bournemouth failing to make it out of the bottom three.
Right now, most bookmakers have taken down or suspended their Premier League 2019/20 Outright markets. But Skybet are still on the case…
Skybet have Bournemouth priced at 5/6 (1.83) for Relegation. As true odds, that would make the Cherries around a 55% chance for the drop.
At the top of the table, Chelsea are forecasted to grab the all-important 4th place for Champions League qualification.
Skybet are again the lone firm with a market up. They go 8/11 (1.73) for Frank Lampard’s side to achieve a Top 4 Finish. Those odds suggest around a 57% chance of the Blues’ finishing in the Top 4.
If OPTA’s 10,000 simulations are anything to go by - and as a stats man, I’d say they are - then there will still be plenty to play for if & when we get the Premier League back. In particular, teams in the battle for a Top 4 Finish or fighting to avoid Relegation will be worthy of attention in the weekly match markets.
I’ll be back next week with your next Across the Leagues update.
Take care.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
