The Golden Shoe - and the Playoff Final...
Monday 3rd August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Immobile wins @ 16/1…
- Age is just a number…
- Stats picks for Brentford v Fulham…
The Golden Shoe – and the Playoff Final…
The football doesn’t stop this summer…
In Scotland, the new 2020/21 Premiership season is already underway. Ross County v Motherwell is on Sky Sports this evening.
After Saturday’s FA Cup final, Tuesday night Wembley will host another big match behind closed doors. See below for the standout stats for the Championship Playoff final, Brentford v Fulham.
Then on Wednesday, we have the start of an exciting pair of UEFA club ‘mini tournaments’ this month…
The Europa League is first to kick off, including Man Utd in action on Wednesday. That’s followed by the Champions League getting back into action on Friday night, with Man City v Real Madrid just one of the tasty ties on the European fixture list.
There will be 26 games over 19 days in those cup competitions, live on BT Sport.
You and I will be following all of that. I’ll be in your inbox on every UEFA match-day, with analysis and advice for you, starting from Wednesday this week.
We’ll also be building up a body of 2020/21 ante posts bets, going after big prices and worthy outsiders once again…
Immobile beats everyone…
After talking about him all season, it was great to see our 16/1 selection Ciro Immobile collect the ‘Golden Boot’ award in Italy on Sunday.
The Lazio striker finished the season with a remarkable 36 league goals. That matches the all-time Serie A record for a single season.
Back in August (in my previous Football Angles service), a key stat from my research was the catalyst for taking on the Top Goalscorer favourite, Cristiano Ronaldo:
- Juventus have now won the Serie A title 9 times in a row – but haven’t produced a single Golden Boot winner in that time
Juve won the league, but their star man Ronaldo had to settle for 2nd place in the scorer chart.
Here are the final standings taking in the four Each Way places, along with the player ages, and their prices from the start of the season:
Serie A Top Goalscorer 2019/20 – final standings
Those results back up what we observed back in August. Namely, that a Serie A Top Goalscorer contender doesn’t need to come from the league-winning team.
Age is just a number…
Looking at those numbers, we can also add that players aged 30 years and over are doing just fine…
As well as Immobile, Ronaldo and Caputo there. We can give honourable mentions to our other pre-season 2019/20 pick in Serie A, Fabio Quagliarella (age 37, 11 goals in 28 appearances for Sampdoria). And to Zlatan Ibrahimovic (age 38, 10 goals in 18 apps for AC Milan).
Ibrahimovic set a new record, becoming the oldest player to hit 10 Serie A goals in a season. He spent the first half of the campaign on loan in the States at LA Galaxy. If Zlatan stays at Milan, he’ll be one to look out for in 2020/21.
- We’ll be taking stock of the prices and opportunities again ahead of the new 2020/21 season, across a variety of leagues and countries. In Italy, Serie A is due to kick off on 19th Sept
The Golden Shoe…
With 36 league goals and nine assists, Ciro Immobile didn’t just win the Golden Boot in Italy. He also collected the prestigious Golden Shoe title, which is awarded to the top scorer from across all of the top leagues in Europe.
Immobile beat big names like Robert Lewandowski, Ronaldo, and Lionel Messi.
At 16/1, the Lazio man was a great example of the kinds of angles and outsider opportunities you and I will be looking to follow in the weeks, months and season to come.
English contenders…
Here’s a stat we can keep in mind for the Premier League and Championship next season, too:
- 3 of this season’s 4 Top Scorers in the Premier League were English. Our 20/1 winner Jamie Vardy, as well as Danny Ings (joint-2nd) and Raheem Sterling (4th)
- In the Championship, our 33/1 Each Way man Ollie Watkins came 2nd, one of 3 English players in the Top 4 places. Along with Lewis Grabban and Karlan Grant
Two stats picks for the Playoff Final…
Brentford v Fulham is the big game on Tuesday night. Going into the playoffs, it was plainly clear that at least one of these season-long promotion challengers was going to end up heartbroken…
It’s come down to the final game of the season in the Championship. Only one can make it up to the Premier League.
Both finished on 81 points each in the regular season. Brentford did the double over Fulham in the league, winning 1-0 at home in December, and 2-0 away in June after the restart.
The bookies have Brentford as the 11/10 (2.1) favourites to win in Normal Time, and 8/15 (1.53) To Lift the Trophy and win promotion.
I’ve been consulting the League & Team Stats for both clubs on our website, and two areas stand out for Tuesday’s big game at Wembley…
Fulham for the Most Cards…
The Championship tables on your Across the Leagues website show that Brentford have been the best-behaved team in the division this season:
- The Bees were ranked 24th of 24 teams for Total Yellow Cards. With just 50 bookings, 13 fewer than the next-best side. Fulham were the 4th-highest, with 87 yellows
Thomas Frank’s Brentford side were also the cleanest when it came to Most Cards or Most Bookings Points bets. Eleven payouts from 46 regular season games was the lowest Most Cards result in the Championship. Fulham were ranked joint-8th with 19 payouts in that market.
Fulham have landed the Most Cards in four of their last six games. Brentford have landed that bet in just four of 11 games since the restart in June. At around Even Money (2.0), the Cottagers are the stats pick for the final.
Brentford on the Corner Handicap…
The Most Corners stats on our site for 2019/20 have Brentford flying high in 2nd place, winning the corner count in 67% of games, a record only bettered by champions Leeds Utd. Fulham were in joint-9th spot, with a 48% record.
Brentford bossed the flag kicks in both league meetings this campaign, 5-2 away and 10-3 at home. Landing the Most Corners bet as well as both the -1 and -2 Corner Handicap in both encounters with Fulham.
Going into Tuesday’s game, Scott Parker’s Fulham side have won the Most Corners in just three of their last 10 attempts.
Brentford are around 1/2 (1.5) to win the Most Corners in the playoff final. For the season, Frank’s team have covered a -1 Corner Handicap in over half of their league games. They’re a top price 19/20 (1.95) to win 2+ more corners than Fulham and land that -1 handicap.
Today’s picks
Brentford v Fulham
Championship Playoff Final
Tuesday, 7.45pm – Sky Sports
- Fulham 0 Card Handicap @ 11/10 (2.1) with Bet365, or Fulham Most Cards @ 11/10 (2.1) with 888 Sport, Unibet. Also available: Fulham Most Booking Points @ 21/20 (2.05) with Boylesports, 10/11 (1.91) Skybet
- Brentford -1 Corner Handicap @ 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill, 17/20 (1.85) 888 Sport, Unibet, 5/6 (1.83) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
I’ll be back on Wednesday, ready for the Europa League kick-off.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
