Top Trends - 16 in a row for Bayern...
Wednesday 5th February 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Top Trends…
- Over 2.5 Goals in Germany...
- Scottish Premiership tonight...
Top Trends…
Our weekend Stats Picks went to form, with the German goals stats once again catching the eye – see below.
In England, League One sides Oxford (2-1) and Rotherham (3-2) both produced home wins.
Oxford have now lost just once at home in the league since the end of August. While last Saturday’s beaten opponents Blackpool stay on just 3 away victories for the season, from 15 attempts.
Rotherham are top of League One and have now won 7 of their last 8. Saturday’s 3-2 win over Burton Albion was the Millers’ 5th consecutive home win.
16 in a row for Bayern...
The German Bundesliga has been produced ‘high goals’ stats all season.
At the weekend, our three highlighted games in Germany all went Over 2.5 Goals:
Mainz 1 Bayern Munich 3
Augsberg 2 Werder Bremen 1
Borussia Dortmund 5 Union Berlin 0
- Bayern Munich are on a 16-game run for Over 2.5 Goals results, going right back to 21st September
- Borussia Dortmund are on an 11-game streak for Over 2.5 Goals, since the start of November
- And each of Augsberg’s last 9 home games (since the start of September) have gone Over 2.5 Goals
With strong stats and streaks like those, we’ll continue to target the Total Goals markets in Germany.
There’s a full round of Bundesliga fixtures this coming weekend.
That will be just one area that we’ll be looking to cover in our next Stats Picks email on Friday.
There are also weekend games in the Premier League, Football League, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga.
Celtic corner conundrum...
It’s the 5th Round of the Scottish FA Cup this weekend. The latest round of league action takes place this evening with all 12 teams in action in the Scottish Premiership.
Motherwell v Celtic is on TV (7.45pm, BT Sport). The reigning champions have posted some exceptionally high corner-winning stats this season. But it’s proving a little tricky to catch them on the right day in the bookies’ Corner Handicap markets...
Celtic have won the Most Corners in 9 of their 12 away games (75%).
Last weekend, the Bhoys won 4-1 at Hamilton, and absolutely smashed the corners, 15-2. That’s enough to beat a -12 Corner Handicap (!).
However, the game before that we put Celtic up as a -4 Corner Handicap pick at St Johnstone, and they ended up being out-cornered by the home team underdogs, 6-4. Celtic won that game, 3-0.
The big difference between those two away wins was the Goal Times...
- At St Johnstone, Celtic were 1-0 up after just 6 minutes, and 3-0 to the good by the 26th minute
- In comparison, at Hamilton last Saturday, the league leaders were 1-0 down after 26 minutes – before coming back to score 4 goals and win the game
Correlations between the match scoreboard & the corner count for the team that are losing and their increased corner count are nothing new, especially in the case of a pre-match favourite like Celtic.
However, in their previous 5 away games before those recent trips to St Johnstone and Hamilton, Neil Lennon’s side scored first, won the game and dominated the corners scores: 8-4, 10-3, 7-2, 11-0, 8-2.
For tonight’s game at Motherwell, the bookmakers are giving Celtic a -3 Corner Handicap to overcome at odds-on, at 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill. Or a -4 Corner Handicap at odds-against, 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365 and 5/4 (2.25) Skybet.
I’d still be on the side of Celtic covering those handicaps more often than not.
But for tonight’s game – with Motherwell holding their own by winning the Most Corners in 4 of their last 7 home games – we’ll keep an eye on the stats result but say No Bet.
I’ll be back on Friday with your Stats Picks for the weekend...
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
