Four players to follow in Germany this weekend...
Friday 5th June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Bundesliga Weekend Preview…
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
- Four players to follow – Scorers and Cards…
Bundesliga Weekend Preview…
The Wednesday night game at Werder Bremen gave us First Goalscorer payout, thanks to Andre Silva opening the scoring for Eintracht Frankfurt after 60 minutes. Similar 5/1 prices are available for Silva this weekend – see below.
We’re concentrating on Germany with our stats picks and analysis today. Four players stand out across the Scorer and Cards markets…
- Head-2-Head stats for every game, and our Bundesliga tables including Form, Goals, Cards & Bookings and Scorers, are all available on your members-only Across the Leagues website
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich is the popcorn match on Saturday…
Leaders Bayern have won 8 in a row, and 5th place Leverkusen have won 4 out of 5. The last 6 meetings between these two clubs have all gone Over 2.5 Goals and seen goals at both ends, with no draws.
The prices aren’t anything to get excited about for this one, though. Bayern are odds-on for the Away Win, at 4/9 (1.44). It’s the same price for Both Teams to Score. And Over 2.5 Goals is just 1/3 (1.33) at best.
In the Scorer markets, the main men are top scorer Robert Lewandowski for Bayern, and Kai Havertz for Leverkusen. The question is, which one do you choose, or both? Havertz is the bigger price – 15/8 (2.88) to score Anytime, versus 4/9 for Lewandowski. But with the abundance for scoring power on show here, you could really make a case for any number of players to get on the scoresheet.
That game should be fun to watch, but in terms of the prices and our picks, these are the fixtures that get our attention:
Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz
Germany – Bundesliga
Saturday 2.30pm, BT Sport
After a 3-0 win at Bremen in midweek, Frankfurt’s run of Over 2.5 Goals results is now up to 9 games. That option is 8/15 (1.53) this weekend.
With goals in mind, I make no apologies for putting up Andre Silva again for the first goal. The Frankfurt forward (and penalty taker) has scored in 4 out of 5 games since the restart, and landed First Goalscorer bets in his last two.
- First Goalscorer – Andre Silva @ 5/1 (6.00) with Bet365, Boylesports, 9/2 (5.50) in general
The home v away Head-2-Head on our site highlights this game as a 71% v 79% match-up for Over 3.5 Cards. That market is hard to come by this weekend, and the firms that have got Total Cards/ Booking Points markets up are asking for 5 or more Yellow Cards, and even then, only at odds-on prices.
Taking the Cards stats as the lead though, the player options are worthy of interest…
There were a joint-Bundesliga record 7 yellows shown in the first half of relegation-threatened Mainz’s game against Hoffenheim last weekend. Four of those went to Mainz players, and the man that catches the eye for another booking this Saturday is midfielder Jean-Paul Boetius.
The Dutchman has been carded in 3 of his last 6 appearances. Odds of 3/1 and bigger make him a man worth following here.
- To be Booked – Jean-Paul Boetius @ 9/2 (5.50) with Betfair Sportsbook, 7/2 (4.50) Paddy Power, 10/3 (4.33) Bet365, 16/5 (4.20) Skybet, William Hill
RB Leipzig v Paderborn
Germany – Bundesliga
Saturday 2.30pm, BT Sport
This is 3rd plays bottom in the Bundesliga, and Leipzig are just 1/7 (1.14) for the Home Win.
The First Goalscorer approach is the one for us here. On Monday we flagged-up Patrick Schick’s excellent record when he gets in the starting XI. He’s now found the net on 6 out of 11 such occasions.
With fellow Leipzig forward Yussef Poulsen out injured for the rest of the season, Schick should be followed again here, and at more attractive odds than the 2/1 (3.00) for the now Chelsea-bound Timo Werner.
- First Goalscorer - Patrick Schick @ 9/2 (5.50) with Bet365, Boylesports, 4/1 (5.00) in general
Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim
Germany – Bundesliga
Saturday 2.30pm, BT Sport
Last but not least, another Cards bet for a player at a relegation-troubled club…
Dusseldorf are 16th of 18 teams in the table. Our Head-2-Head stats for this game make the home v away Over 3.5 Cards match-up another strong 71% v 79%. And as with the Frankurt-Mainz game, the player markets promise greater returns than the match Totals.
In that respect, Dusseldorf’s Adam Bodzek catches the eye. He’s got 6 yellows from just 9 home league starts this season. And for the 2019/20 campaign overall, only three man in the Bundesliga have got more bookings than the 34-year-old German.
- To be Booked – Adam Bodzek @ 21/10 (3.10) with Skybet, William Hill, 8/5 (2.60) Betfair Sportsbook, 6/4 (2.50) Bet365, 29/20 (2.45) BetVictor, 7/5 (2.40) Paddy Power
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz
- First Goalscorer – Andre Silva @ 5/1 (6.00) with Bet365, Boylesports, 9/2 (5.50) in general
- To be Booked – Jean-Paul Boetius @ 9/2 (5.50) with Betfair Sportsbook, 7/2 (4.50) Paddy Power, 10/3 (4.33) Bet365, 16/5 (4.20) Skybet, William Hill
RB Leipzig v Paderborn
- First Goalscorer – Patrick Schick @ 9/2 (5.50) with Bet365, Boylesports, 4/1 (5.00) in general
Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim
- To be Booked – Adam Bodzek @ 21/10 (3.10) with Skybet, William Hill, 8/5 (2.60) Betfair Sportsbook, 6/4 (2.50) Bet365, 29/20 (2.45) BetVictor, 7/5 (2.40) Paddy Power
I’ll be back next week, when we’ll be looking at some of the standout stats in Spain, ready for the return of La Liga on 11th June.
Have a good weekend…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
