A 16/1 angle for the Europa League...
Wednesday 5th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Europa League tonight – kick off 5.55pm…
- Name the Finalists…
- Taking on the favourites…
A 16/1 angle for the Europa League…
The domestic seasons have been sorted out, but we still have a couple of big 2019/20 trophies to be decided…
We’ll be focusing on the Champions League on Friday.
But first of all, August’s UEFA double-header kicks off this evening with the first batch of Europa League knockout games in the new, streamlined format.
- Across both competitions, there are 26 games taking place over the next 19 days. I’ll be covering every match-day with an email update and analysis for you
There are four Europa League ties taking place today, and four more tomorrow.
Six of those are 2nd legs, following on from 1st legs played way back before lockdown. While Inter Milan v Getafe and Sevilla v Roma this week are one-off matches, to be decided on the day, with no aggregate score-line to consider.
Once this week’s Europa League business is taken care of, we’ll know the full quarter final line-up. Those knockout games start on Monday.
First things first, a look at the top of the revised Outright Winner market…
Europa League – Outright Winner:
Man Utd 2/1 (3.0)
Inter Milan 5/1 (6.0)
Bayer Leverkusen 7/1
Wolves 15/2 (8.5)
Sevilla 8/1 (9.0)
Shakhtar Donetsk 16/1 (17.0)
Getafe 16/1 (17.0)
Roma 16/1 (17.0)
Basel 25/1 (26.0)
66/1+ bar
- Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places in general
The route to the final…
We already know the draw for the quarter finals and beyond.
The draw looks like this:
Quarter Finals:
1. Wolfsburg/Shakhtar Donetsk v Eintracht Frankfurt/Basel
2. LASK/Manchester United v Istanbul Basaksehir/Copenhagen
3. Inter Milan/Getafe v Rangers/Bayer Leverkusen
4. Olympiakos/Wolves v Sevilla/Roma
Semi Finals:
Winner of Quarter Final 4 v winner of Quarter Final 2
Winner of Quarter Final 3 v winner of Quarter Final 1
Name the Finalists…
It’s hard to argue with the favourites in the Outright Winner market. Man Utd and Inter Milan both finished the season strongly, post-lockdown. Finishing 3rd in the Premier League and 2nd in Serie A, respectively.
Bayer Leverkusen, Wolves and Sevilla make up a pretty strong ‘best of the rest.’
None of those sides are above 8/1 in the Outright Winner betting. Those are not odds that get me that excited of their own accord, especially considering all the factors to consider in this unprecedented mini-tournament.
For example, squads are going to be tested with the games coming thick and fast. And the removal of the two-legged format (and home advantage) means there more chance of an upset on any given night.
One angle I like though, is in the Name the Finalists market. There’s the potential here to snag an appealing price by attempting to narrow the field down to the final two teams.
I’ve spent some time this week mapping out potential routes to the final…
The draw-sheet helps us out here, of course. Man Utd and Wolves can’t meet in the final, for example. But that could be a semi.
Man Utd & Inter Milan is, unsurprisingly, the favourite in this market. That option is 4/1 with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, and 5/1 with Skybet. If you think the cream will rise to the top, then that 5/1 might serve you well over the next fortnight or so.
Personally, I think there’s enough doubt in this competition to go after an alternative line-up in the final…
Inter and one other…
In the other side of the draw to Man Utd, I agree with Inter Milan as the team most likely to go all the way.
In attack, the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez have been excellent this season, scoring 48 goals between them in all competitions. While former Premier League stalwarts like Alexis Sanchez, Christian Eriksen and Ashley Young have also proved valuable additions to the Inter team.
Dropping into the Europa League from the Champions League after Christmas, Inter won home & away in the last completed knockout round before the coronavirus situation saw the competition suspended.
If they can get past Getafe tonight, then Inter will likely face Bayer Leverkusen in the quarter finals (Leverkusen have a 3-1 aggregate lead v Rangers). The Italian side ended the season stronger, and they’d be my pick to get past the free-scoring but somewhat inconsistent Bundesliga side.
Following the draw-sheet, if Inter were to reach the semi finals, then they’d be the favourite to get past Shakhtar, Wolfsburg, Frankfurt or Basel.
The other semi final would look a look trickier on paper. It could be Man Utd v Wolves or Man Utd v Sevilla…
Wolves have had another superb season, further consolidating their position in the Premier League, finishing 7th for the second year running. In the process setting themselves up to challenge for European football and silverware.
But I’m willing to eschew the Premier League teams Man Utd and Wolves, and pencil in a classy outfit from Spain to line up alongside Inter in the final on August 21st…
Sevilla have pedigree…
Sevilla were 4th in La Liga this season, with only Real Madrid and Barcelona racking up more than their 70-point tally. That was an improvement on their 2018/19 total of 59 pts, and a 5th place finish.
Since the restart in Spain, Sevilla went unbeaten in 11 games. Going back to February, they are on a run of 17 matches unbeaten in all comps.
We’ve already seen Arsenal frank their position as serial FA Cup winners this season (lifting the cup for the fourth time in seven years, and a record 14th time overall). Sevilla are that team in the Europa League, and the UEFA Cup as it was previously known…
Sevilla have lifted UEFA’s second-tier trophy a record five times. With all five of those triumphs coming in the last 14 years, and three in the last six seasons.
In the Outright Winner market, Inter Milan are 5/1 and Sevilla are 8/1. For odds of 16/1 or 14/1, the Name the Finalists option gets my attention as an alternative way to profit from those two going all the way…
Today’s pick
Europa League 2019/20
I’ll be back tomorrow, with analysis & advice taking in the Thursday matches & markets in the Europa League.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
