Stats Picks - including Away Wins at 9/1...
Friday 6th March 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Stats Picks…
- Home & Away selections…
- Liverpool v Bournemouth on TV…
Stats Picks…
There’s a full weekend fixture list across the eight leagues that we cover on our website.
With all games in Italy to be played behind closed doors until 3rd April to try and help stop the spread of the coronavirus, the lack of any crowd or atmosphere in the stadiums is another factor to consider when looking at Serie A opportunities in the next few weeks.
Here are our Stats Picks for the weekend:
MATCH RESULTS
The Match Result form leads us to six matches in the Football League. We’re splitting these into Home and Away picks, with two Win Trebles the recommendation.
Fleetwood v Blackpool – Fleetwood to win (@ 17/20)
League One, Sat 3pm
Fleetwood have momentum, winning 6 of their last 7, including 3 in a row at home.
Blackpool have got a new manager, with Neil Critchley arriving from the Liverpool backroom. The Tangerines have won their last two at home, but away form has been a big problem. ‘Pool are 12 away games without a victory in League One, losing 5 of their last 6 on their travels.
Northampton v Mansfield – Northampton to win (@ 19/20)
League Two, Sat 3pm
Only the Top 2 of Swindon and Crewe have won more home games in League Two than Northampton’s 11 this season. The Cobblers, who are 6th, have won their last 5 at home against teams in the bottom half of the table.
Mansfield are three places off the bottom and have lost 4 of their last 5 away games.
Swindon v Forest Green – Swindon to win (@ 8/11)
League Two, Sat 3pm
Swindon are 3 points clear at the top of League Two with a game in hand. The Robins have won a division-best 13 out of 18 home games (72%), including each of their last 5 at the County Ground.
Swindon have won 3 in a row overall, and 4 of their last 5. They also have League Two’s runaway top scorer, Eoin Doyle, who is on 25 goals for the season, 11 ahead of his nearest rival.
Forest Green mid-table and 8 games without a win, losing 6.
Those three home wins combine at 5/1+:
- ACCA – Treble: Fleetwood, Northampton & Swindon to win @ 5/1+ (6.00+) with Betway, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, BetVictor, William Hill, Sportingbet, Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet
Now for three selections on the road in League One…
Ipswich v Coventry – Coventry to win (@ 7/4)
League One, Sat 3pm
League One leaders Coventry are on a 13-game unbeaten run, winning 10. The Sky Blues have won 6 of their last 7 away games.
Ipswich have lost 6 of their last 8 games, including home defeats v Top 8 sides Fleetwood, Oxford and Peterborough.
Rochdale v Rotherham – Rotherham to win (@ 7/10)
League One, Sat 3pm
Rochdale are 20th and have lost 3 games in a row. ‘Dale have won just one of their last 8 league games overall. And just 2 of their last 8 at home, with those wins coming against Bolton and Shrewsbury who are both in the bottom half of the table.
Rotherham are 2nd and have lost just one of their last 15 games. The Millers have won 4 of their last 6 on the road.
Shrewsbury v Oxford – Oxford to win (@ 5/4)
League One, Sat 3pm
Shrewsbury are 15th and have won just one of their last 6 at home, with just 2 victories from their last 13 attempts overall.
Oxford are 7th and mounting a strong bid for the playoff places, with 4 consecutive wins – conceding just one goal in that 4-game streak.
With just 8 points separating the 1st and 8th place teams in League One, the promotion battle is a close one in this division and those three away picks all have big incentives to get the points this weekend…
That trio of away wins pays 9/1+:
- ACCA – Treble: Coventry, Oxford & Rotherham to win @ 9/1+ (10.00+) with William Hill and in general
PREMIER LEAGUE
The Saturday lunchtime TV game stands out as a good match-up on the Total Corners stats…
Liverpool v Bournemouth – Over 11.5 Corners
Premier League, Sat 12.30pm – BT Sport
Liverpool have won 14 out of 14 league games at Anfield this season, and 21 in a row at home going back to January of last season.
Bournemouth have lost 5 in a row on the road, and won just one of their last 11 away league games.
The bookies make the home win short odds-on at 1/4 (1.25).
The Corners stats present a more enticing market…
Here are the Total Corners results from Liverpool’s last 5 Premier League home games (most recent first): 24, 17, 16, 12, 11.
Liverpool’s 71% record for Over 10.5 Corners is the highest home strike-rate in the Premier League for that bet. Bournemouth’s 71% away figure is the joint-highest away record.
The Head-2-Head on our website shows that Liverpool home games this season are averaging 12.9 Total Corners, with Bournemouth away games averaging 12.2 (see screenshot below).
Bournemouth’s last 3 games have produced corners results of: 18, 11 and 12. In the Cherries’ last two trips to Anfield, the corners totals have been 13 & 12.
Over 10.5 Corners is 1/2 (1.50) and 4/11 (1.36). The home & away figures make a good enough case to go one higher here, at Over 11.5 Corners.
- Over 11.5 Corners @ 10/11 (1.91) with Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet, 17/20 (1.85) Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/5 (1.80) Bet365, Sportingbet, BetVictor
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. This week’s Stats Picks are:
- ACCA – Treble: Fleetwood, Northampton & Swindon to win @ 5/1+
- ACCA – Treble: Coventry, Oxford & Rotherham to win @ 9/1+
- Liverpool v Bournemouth – Over 11.5 Corners @ 10/11
Champions League next week…
It’s the Champions League next week, with four Last 16, 2nd Leg ties taking place over Tuesday & Wednesday.
These are the games we’ll be looking at:
RB Leipzig v Tottenham
Valencia v Atalanta
Liverpool v Atletico Madrid
PSG v Borussia Dortmund
There’s also a handful of domestic league fixtures on the midweek calendar. I’ll be in touch with your Midweek Stats Picks emails on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Have a good weekend…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
