Two men to follow in Spain tonight...
Tuesday 7th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Top Scorer battles continue…
- Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid, 9pm…
- Cards & Scorer picks…
Two men to follow in Spain tonight…
I need to kick off today’s email with an apology. Our Across the Leagues stats website is currently offline, requiring some essential maintenance.
Rest assured, the unique betting stats and tools will be back available for you on the site as soon as possible. I’ll keep you posted with daily email updates this week.
Alongside the data carried by our site, my own research and analysis spans several matches and countries. And today is no different…
Oxford off to Wembley…
It took a penalty shootout to get there, but after two 1-1 draws and extra time, Oxford Utd squeezed past Portsmouth on penalties last night, to reach the League One playoff final.
Our 11/4 (3.75) or 5/2 (3.50) picks from last week, Oxford are now the 8/13 (1.62) favourites for promotion.
Karl Robinson’s side will take on Wycombe at an empty Wembley Stadium in the final, next Monday evening, live on Sky Sports.
Top Scorer battles continue…
Arsenal v Leicester is the 8.15pm kick off in the Premier League tonight. It’s also Aubameyang v Vardy – the two top scorers in the English top-flight this season…
Jamie Vardy is on 21 goals. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has got 19. Unsurprisingly, the bookies have those two men at the top of the Scorer markets for this game. The Leicester striker is around 13/10 (2.30) to score Anytime. Arsenal’s leading scorer is Evens (2.00).
And in Italy, the two top men are also in action today…
Serie A leading scorer Ciro Immobile is priced as short as 1/3 (1.33) to score for Lazio at Lecce. Cristiano Ronaldo is around 10/11 (1.91) to score yet again for Juventus, who go to AC Milan.
- Ronaldo has scored in 4 out of 4 league games since play resumed. And in 15 of his last 16 Serie A appearances overall
Lecce v Lazio could be fun. Since returning to competitive action last month, all four Lazio games have seen at least three goals. And Lecce are on a 10-game run for Over 2.5 Goals, including 1-4, 4-0, 1-2 and 4-2 defeats since 22nd June.
The Under/Over market for that 6.30pm game has the Over 2.5 option at just 4/11 (1.36).
Charlton could park the bus…
In the Championship, Brentford’s Ollie Watkins has one more ‘game in hand’ over the suspended Aleksandar Mitrovic. The Fulham forward serves the last of a three-match ban this week. Watkins and Mitrovic are neck and neck on 23 goals each at the top of the Championship Top Goalscorer chart.
Brentford v Charlton is a 6pm kick off. Promotion-chasing Brentford have won four out of four since the restart, without conceding a single goal.
At first glance, the Bees would seem a home win pick here. But I’d be a little wary of Charlton, who are involved in the serious business of trying to stay out of the relegation places. Lee Bowyer’s side won the reverse fixture, 1-0. And the recent goals form says this one could be tight…
- Charlton’s results since the restart (first to last): 0-1 win, 1-0 lose, 0-0 draw, 0-1 lose
- Overall, each of Charlton’s last 7 league games have only seen one team get on the score sheet – paying on the ‘Both Teams to Score: No’ option
Spanish trends…
La Liga saw two more Under 2.5 Goals results on Monday night. Since 1st July, 13 out of 17 games in the Spanish league have seen 2 or less Total Goals.
Valencia v Valladolid looks a contender for another low-scoring affair today. Four of Valencia’s last five games have gone Under 2.5. As have six in a row for Valladolid, with four draws in there – a brace of 1-1 score-lines, and two 0-0 stalemates.
The bookmakers have Under 2.5 Goals odds-on at 8/15 (1.53) there.
If you like the sound of any of the players, prices and goal scenarios I’ve mentioned there, don’t let me put you off backing them. For me, though, the main game of interest this evening is the 9pm kick off in Spain…
Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid
These two sides have produced more low-goals games than not over the course of the season, but recent form suggests a bit more end-to-end activity than usual.
Celta Vigo held Barcelona to a 2-2 draw, with that result sandwiched between 6-0 and 1-1 home results. With a 5-1 away defeat in there, too.
Atletico are on a three-game spin for Over 2.5 Goals, which is the first time that’s happened in the league for Diego Simeone’s since right back in February 2017. That’s a pretty eye-opening stat.
There’s a slight asterix by those recent 2-1 (win), 2-2 and 3-0 (win) scores, though: four of those seven Atletico goals came from the penalty spot.
The reverse fixture in September ended 0-0, in a game that saw eight yellow cards. The Player Cards stats and markets are in my thoughts for this evening’s match, along with the goal-scoring (and penalty-taking) potential…
A couple of contenders…
Both teams are missing players through suspension this evening. Celta defender Nestor Araujo is serving a one-match ban for collecting five bookings. And it’s the same for Atletico forward Diego Costa.
I like one player each from both teams tonight….
For the home side, striker Iago Aspas has been in good form since the restart, bagging four goals in his last five games. The former Liverpool man takes penalties, too. With 13 league goals in 2019/20, only four men in La Liga have got more goals to their name than the 32-year-old.
Aspas is also no stranger to a booking. He’s been carded in three games in a row, and nine times in total in La Liga this campaign. One more yellow and he’ll get a one-match ban, too…
Aspas was booked in the 0-0 at Madrid when these sides last met. He’s either scored or been carded in each of his last three appearances against Atletico.
Saul Niguez is right up there on that head-to-head form, too. Saul has been shown a yellow card in no fewer than four of his last five games against Celta Vigo. And on current form, he’s got three yellows in four outings for Atletico since 23rd June.
He’s in with the goals lately, too…
Saul Niguez scored two penalties at Barcelona last week. He’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in two out of six games since La Liga got back underway. A recent-form 33% strike-rate that is double the percentage chance suggested by odds of 5/1+ to score this evening.
At the prices, both Aspas and Niguez are worth following in the Cards and Scorer markets tonight…
Today’s picks
Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid
Spain, La Liga
9pm, LaLigaTV (Premier Sports) – also Live Streaming on Bet365
Anytime Scorer:
- Iago Aspas @ 10/3 (4.33) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/10 (4.30) 888 Sport, Unibet, 5/2 (3.50) Betway
- Saul Niguez @ 11/2 (6.50) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betway, 5/1 (6.00) general
Player to be Booked:
- Iago Aspas @ 11/4 (3.75) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 23/10 (3.30) with Skybet, William Hill, 21/10 (3.10) BetVictor
- Saul Niguez @ 13/5 (3.60) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 9/4 (3.25) Bet365, 11/5 (3.20) Skybet, William Hill
I’ll be back tomorrow with more angles, analysis & advice for you.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
