Across the Leagues Logo

Promotion outsiders at 28/1 and 40/1...

Wednesday 8th July 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Outright prices…
  • Two picks in the Championship…
  • Kick-offs from 3pm…

Promotion outsiders at 28/1 and 40/1…

Outright betting will form a significant part of your new Across the Leagues service. As well as coverage of weekly matches and stats-trends selections, I’ll be naming picks throughout the year in the ante post, season-long league & cup markets…

These could be Each Way, 33/1 or 20/1 Top Goalscorer selections, a 66/1 shot for the FA Cup or Champions League, an early-bird pick for the European Championships next summer. A League Winner or Relegation bet. Or, as is the case today, making a move in the Promotion market.

Whatever the league or competition, one thing will be consistent: we’ll be going for attractive prices. Hunting for value. Looking for a bet that can give us a great run for our money, with the potential of some very decent returns when it all falls into place.

And at odds like 28/1 and 40/1 that we’re focusing on today, you don’t need things to fall into place very often to get ahead in the long run.

A big month in the Championship…

This evening marks the midway point in the Championship ‘mini season’ created by the return to action, post-lockdown. When play resumed last month, there were nine rounds of games to be completed. After the current midweek fixtures, every team will have four fixtures each left to play.

The promotion race and battle for the playoff places is looking very interesting. And by interesting, I mean it’s going to be close…

Here’s how the top of the Championship table looks right now:

Championship Table 080720

Leeds and West Brom are in the automatic promotion spots. Brentford have won five games in a row since the restart. Fulham have just reeled off three straight victories, despite having their top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic missing through suspension for all three.

Forest and Cardiff are in the other two playoff positions as it stands, but both suffered defeats last night. Derby and Swansea are not far behind, with their games in hand coming this evening at West Brom and Birmingham respectively.

At this point we should consult the betting. The current top prices in the Promotion market for those teams are as follows:

Leeds 1/10 (1.1)
West Brom 1/5 (1.2)
Brentford 4/6 (1.67)
Fulham 5/2 (3.5)
Nottingham Forest 6/1 (7.0)
Cardiff 12/1 (13.0)
Derby 28/1 (29.0)
Swansea 40/1 (41.0)
Millwall 40/1 (41.0)
100/1+ bar

In the Top 6 Finish (eg. to finish in the playoff places) market, the odds are:

Forest 1/20 (1.05)
Cardiff 8/11 (1.73)
Derby 6/1 (7.0)
Millwall 6/1 (7.0)
Swansea 6/1 (7.0)
Preston 20/1 (21.0)
Blackburn 25/1 (26.0)

All to play for…

When we look at the remaining fixtures, things get really intriguing…

Upcoming big games in the promotion & playoff races include:

West Brom v Derby (tonight)
Derby v Brentford
Cardiff v Derby
Derby v Leeds
Fulham v Cardiff
Forest v Swansea
Swansea v Leeds
West Brom v Fulham

As that selection shows, a lot of these teams have still got to play each other. Automatic promotion, and qualification for the playoffs, could swing depending on some of those results.

28/1 for the Rams…

Derby are a case in point. Games against West Brom, Brentford, Cardiff & Leeds gives the Rams the toughest schedule of the teams in the top half of the table. That batch of matches could either see Derby’s challenge fade away – or pick up steam…

From the playoff contenders below Brentford and Fulham, Derby have started the best of the rest since lockdown. With County unbeaten in four, winning three (against Millwall, Reading and Preston) and drawing at Nottingham Forest.

With Wayne Rooney in the team, and Phillip Cocu in the dugout, the Pride Park club certainly have a couple of very experienced heads that know how to win things.

Derby have reached the playoffs in three of the last four seasons. The fixture list is tough – but the opportunity is there as this truncated campaign reaches its climax, and there’s a nice price to go with it.

Going into today’s fixtures, County are 28/1 and 25/1 To be Promoted. If they get a result at West Brom tonight, then it will be game on…

A win or draw at the Hawthorns is not out of the question at all. West Brom have won just nine home games in the league this season, which is less than Leeds, Fulham, Brentford, Forest and Derby. And even if they don’t get points this evening, Derby will still be just three points behind Cardiff, and on equal games played.

40/1 for the Swans…

Sticking with the big prices, and the case for a team currently outside of the playoff places to make a charge, Swansea at 40/1 should go in the book, too…

After being relegated from the Premier League in 2017/18, the Swans had a consolidation year last season, finishing 10th in the Championship. With some big games coming up this month, a win at Birmingham this evening could put them right in with a chance of the playoff places. Birmingham are without a win in nine games, and W0 D2 L2 since the restart.

Add in the fact that Swansea have Andre Ayew looking sharp up front (four goals in his last eight games), and a shot at a return to the top-flight doesn’t look too far-fetched.

At these odds, we’re having two outside bets in the Championship 2019/20 Promotion market today. If one of Derby or Swansea makes the cut and reaches the playoffs, we’ll have a very good price on our side to play with.

Today’s picks

Championship 2019/20

  • To be Promoted: Derby County @ 28/1 with William Hill, 25/1 Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
  • To be Promoted: Swansea @ 40/1 with William Hill, Bet365, Skybet, NetBet, 10Bet, 33/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Boylesports

The Championship action kicks off from 3pm this afternoon. Derby play at 5pm. Swansea are on at 6pm.

The games continue every day. I’ll be back tomorrow with my next angles, analysis & advice for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues

We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this email. All prices correct at time of sending to subscribers.

Gambling is high risk and Oxfordshire Press Ltd and its writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred.

Never bet with money you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly, for more information and advice visit the gambleaware website at: www.begambleaware.org.

Copyright © Oxfordshire Press Ltd, 2020.