Two Premier League picks for this evening...
Thursday 9th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- 40/1 Swansea now 16/1…
- Suspensions, scorers & spot kicks…
- Analysis & advice for today’s games…
Two Premier League picks for this evening…
A good win for Swansea last night has moved them to just one point off the playoff places in the Championship…
Promotion prices…
That 3-1 victory at Birmingham means the promotion race is definitely on for our 40/1 outsider selection. There are four games to go.
Our other speculative promotion picks, Derby County (28/1), went down 2-0 at table-topping West Brom. County are three points off the playoff positions.
Derby’s price has drifted after last night’s result, but we’re still better off than 24 hours ago, thanks to 40/1 Swansea who have been cut to a general 16/1 for promotion.
As I said yesterday, at the big prices, we’ll be happy if we get one of those two teams into the playoff hunt come the end of the regular season.
- In the League One playoffs, we’ve got 11/4 (3.75) Oxford in the final v Wycombe next Monday night. Oxford are now 8/13 (1.62) favourites to triumph at Wembley and win promotion
Suspensions, scorers & spot kicks…
A handful of players have featured in my notes recently. Connected by all being scorers, on the receiving end of suspensions for yellow or red cards, and also for all being chief penalty takers at their clubs:
Real Madrid’s goal-scoring central defender Sergio Ramos has got five goals in seven games, but will serve a one-match ban and miss the game v Alaves tomorrow night.
Raul Garcia is top scorer for Athletic Bilbao, but after picking up a 10th La Liga yellow of the season v Real Madrid last week, Garcia will be missing for Bilbao’s game v Sevilla tonight (see below).
On Tuesday, we took standout Anytime Scorer odds of 11/2 (6.50) on Atletico Madrid’s penalty taker, Saul Niguez. He drew a blank at Celta Vigo on the night, although he did almost get the chance to take a spot kick, late on. The referee was alerted to a VAR review in the 90th minute, but it got overturned.
Aleksandar Mitrovic is joint-top scorer in the Championship. The Fulham forward – and their number one penalty taker – will be back in contention v Cardiff on Friday.
Ciro Immobile is the leading scorer in the Serie A (and a 16/1 pick from my previous Football Angles service from the start of the season), and has scored a hatful of penalties for Lazio this campaign. Immobile recently served a one-match ban. He got booked again in his first game back v Lecce in midweek.
Analysis & advice for today’s games…
Sticking with the Anytime Scorers, there are two players that I like the look of today in the European leagues.
Sevilla forward Lucas Ocampos looks a good price to score, at a standout 3/1. Up until Christmas, Ocampos had got more bookings than goals this season. But since the turn of the year, the 25-year-old Argentinean has turned that around, with 10 goals in 20 games (and just two yellow cards).
Since the restart, Ocampos has found the net in three out of seven La Liga games, with two of them coming from the penalty spot. Tonight’s opponents Athletic Bilbao have conceded from a penalty in three of their six games since the return to action.
In Italy, Inter Milan go to Verona this evening, and goals can be expected…
Verona have a leaky defence, yet to keep a clean sheet in five games, post-lockdown. And conceding two or more goals in each of their last four games. Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in five out five Inter games since the restart. That option is a 4/6 (1.67) at best today.
The player for us is Romelu Lukaku. The big Belgian has been more hit than miss this season, sitting 3rd in the Serie A Top Goalscorer standings with 19 goals. Lukaku has got three in his last five appearances, and, continuing our theme – he also takes penalties.
Lukaku is at the top of the betting for tonight’s game, as he is for most Inter Milan matches. But with the recent goals form in mind, he can justify the odds at Verona this evening.
Two Premier League picks…
We’re expected the stats on your Across the Leagues website to be available again ready for the weekend fixtures. I’ll give you an update tomorrow. But all being well, you’ll be able to access most areas, such as our Corners stats for the Premier League…
I’ve been consulting those numbers with the midweek games in mind, and the home v away form says we should back Tottenham to get the Most Corners at Bournemouth today (6pm, Sky Sports):
- Bournemouth have been out-cornered in 7 out of 8 home games v Top Half teams this season
Adding weight to that corners pattern, the Cherries only had the most possession in six of those eight games v top-half opposition (v Sheff Utd and Burnley). Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd and Wolves have all gone to the Vitality Stadium this season and bossed both the possession and corners stats.
Spurs have landed the Most Corners bet in each of their last three away games, at Sheff Utd, Burnley and Chelsea.
Aston Villa v Man Utd also leads us to the away team. This time it’s the Match Handicap market that gets our attention…
Man Utd have been one of the form teams since play restarted (W3 D1 L0), winning three in a row. Overall, United are unbeaten in 16 games in all competitions. On the historical form, Man Utd haven’t lost to Villa in 15 encounters going back to 2009.
Villa are W0 D2 L3 since getting back into action. And nine league games without a win overall. The Midlands club are in dire need of points this evening as they bid to get out of the relegation zone. Unfortunately for Dean Smith and his players, Man Utd also need points, with the 4th-place Champions League qualification spot a priority.
United’s results-when-winning provide the key stat for me here:
- Man Utd’s last 8 league wins have all been by more than one goal
That includes recent 5-2, 0-3 and 3-0 victories, all covering the -1 Match Handicap with a goal to spare.
The away win is 1/3 (1.33) this evening. That Handicap option gives you more like 10/11 (1.91).
Today’s picks
Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla (9pm)
Spain, La Liga
- Anytime Scorer: Lucas Ocampos @ 3/1 (4.0) with Bet365, 29/10 (3.90) 888 Sport, Unibet, 2/1+ (3.0+) in general
Verona v Inter Milan (8.45pm)
Italy, Serie A
- Anytime Scorer: Romelu Lukaku @ 11/10 (2.1) with Sportingbet, Bwin, 19/20 (1.95) Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill Betway, 888 Sport, Unibet
Bournemouth v Tottenham (6pm, Sky Sports)
Premier League
- Most Corners: Tottenham @ 3/4 (1.75) with Boylesports, BetVictor, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet
Aston Villa v Man Utd (8.15pm, Sky Sports)
Premier League
I’ll be back tomorrow with a weekend preview for you, and an update regarding our website.
P.S
From this week’s additional Across the Leagues EXTRA email, we need Tottenham and Man Utd to win tonight to land our 9/1 midweek acca. Look out for more Premier League predictions on Friday, too.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
