Stats Picks - RB Leipzig v Tottenham tonight...
Tuesday 10th March 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Midweek Stats Picks…
- Champions League tonight…
- RB Leipzig v Tottenham...
Stats Picks…
The Champions League Last 16, 2nd Legs start this week. With aggregate scores to consider and quarter final places up for grabs, it should be entertaining...
Tuesday:
(1st Leg scores in brackets)
RB Leipzig (1) v Tottenham (0)
Valencia (1) v Atalanta (4) - to be played behind closed doors
Wednesday:
Liverpool (0) v Atletico Madrid (1)
PSG (1) v Borussia Dortmund (2) - to be played behind closed doors
- All kick offs 8pm, live on BT Sport
- Two games are being played without fans in the stadiums, due to the outbreak of the coronavirus
There’s also a handful of midweek league fixtures, including Man City v Arsenal in the Premier League on Wednesday.
Along with four games tonight in League One, and one in League Two. Head-2-Head stats for all those league games are available to view on our website now:
www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Here are our Stats Picks and analysis for tonight:
RB Leipzig v Tottenham
TONIGHT 8pm
Under 2.5 Goals
Tottenham are 1-0 down on aggregate. They need to score…
Often an occasion like this would point to a ‘high goals’ bet. Indeed, Spurs are 73% away in the Premier League for Over 2.5 Goals this season, and 3 out of 3 on the road in Europe for that bet. In the German Bundesliga, Leipzig are 75% at home for 3+ Total Goals results.
However, Leipzig have some potentially significant ‘low goals’ score-lines in their recent formbook. And Tottenham are missing several first team players through injury, most notably their main scoring threats Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son.
Three of Leipzig’s last 4 games in all comps - and 4 of their last 6 - have actually gone Under 2.5 Goals…
That includes the 1-0 win at Tottenham in the 1st Leg. Along with three low-scoring draws against teams in the Top 7 places in the Bundesliga: 0-0 at Bayern Munich, 1-1 v Bayer Leverkusen and most recently 0-0 at Wolfsburg at the weekend.
With Spurs & Jose Mourinho in underdog mode and needing to find a big result by any means necessary, and Leipzig looking to break new ground and reach a first Champions League quarter final. Going against the 4/6 (1.67) ‘Over 2.5’ favourite in the Total Goals market tonight and instead betting Under 2.5 Goals could prove the best way to go.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/4 (2.25) with BetVictor, Marathonbet, 6/5 (2.20) in general
RB Leipzig -1 Corner Handicap
The Corners stats are also of interest here…
Leipzig have played 15 home games in all comps this season, and visiting teams have only managed to win the Most Corners on 2 of those 15 occasions (13%).
Tottenham have won the Most Corners in 10 of their 21 away games (48%). Again, a 2nd Leg assumption here would be that the away team, needing to score at least one goal to stand a chance of staying in the Champions League, will go ‘all out’ in attack. But that’s never been the Mourinho way. If this one is 0-0 with 10 minutes to go, Spurs are still very much in the tie. And playing on the counter attack could be an option, too.
Leipzig are used to being in control at home. They’ve lost just once in 14 games at the Red Bull Arena this season.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side are around 4/7 (1.57) to win the Most Corners this evening. Leipzig have covered a -1 Corner Handicap in 7 of their last 10 home games. That option is available at slightly bigger odds.
- RB Leipzig -1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 (2.05) with Bet365, 49/50 (1.98) 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor, 17/20 (1.85) William Hill, Betway, 5/6 (1.83) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s Stats Picks are:
- RB Leipzig v Tottenham - Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/4
- RB Leipzig v Tottenham - Leipzig -1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Stats Picks for Wednesday’s games.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
