Weekend analysis & advice - including Tottenham v Arsenal...
Friday 10th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Home & away angles for the North London derby…
- Corners stats…
- 7/1 for a Half Time/Full Time upset…
Weekend analysis & advice – including Tottenham v Arsenal…
There are some 40-odd games on the weekend fixture list, across the Premier League, Championship, La Liga and Serie A.
A few of them feature in my notes and analysis today. And, as ever, being selective with our picks and the prices that we go for, my research focuses on four games in particular.
- Note: Our website is nearly back up to speed; we’re running some final checks on the stats over the weekend. We’ll be back online on Monday
Home & away angles for the North London derby…
Some trends present themselves on the very latest form. Other stats can be returned to time and time again over the course of several seasons…
That can especially be the case with derby matches. While the most current formbook can be ‘thrown out the window,’ as the pundits say. Historical head-to-heads can prove fruitful to follow.
In recent seasons, these two angles have proved profitable and reliable for the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal:
- 13 of the last 14 North London derbies in all competitions have seen the home team win the Most Corners
- 8 of last 10 meetings in the Premier League have seen the away team receive the Most Cards & Booking Points
Those are some very strong patterns, stretching as far back as 2013.
If we consult the recent league form, both Tottenham and Arsenal are decent corner-winners. Spurs have landed Most Corners bets in four out of five games since the restart. The Gunners have come out on top on the corners count in each of their last four games.
In terms of the discipline stats, Arsenal have delivered on Most Cards & Booking Points bets in five of their last seven away games in the Premier League. Spurs have landed that bet in just two of their last seven at home in the league.
There will be no fans inside the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this time, of course. But this is still a derby match, and there’s plenty enough evidence here to trust in these home & away stats trends: Tottenham for the Most Corners, and Arsenal for the Most Cards.
Sunday double on the Corners…
I love a good Corners stat. Sunday’s Premier League fixture list also throws up two other good match-ups on the home v away Most Corners form…
Wolves v Everton:
- Wolves have won the Most Corners in 10 of their last 12 league games at Molineux. Everton have been out-cornered in 7 of their last 9 games overall
Bournemouth v Leicester:
- After Thursday night’s 8-12 corners score v Tottenham, Bournemouth have been out-cornered in 8 out of 9 home games v Top Half teams this season. Leicester have won the Most Corners in 8 of their last 10 on the road in the Premier League
Wolves are around 8/13 (1.62) to land the Most Corners against the Toffees. Leicester are around 2/5 (1.4) for that Corners Match Bet at Bournemouth. The double is my pick, paying a top price 6/4 (2.5) with Skybet, and 5/4 (2.25) elsewhere.
Form teams since the restart…
Whereas long-term trends guide the way for us in the Tottenham-Arsenal game this weekend, sometimes the most recent form is everything. If that’s the case, then these four teams are ones to look out for this weekend:
Man Utd have won four in a row, all by a three-goal winning margin (3 x 3-0, and a 5-2), which is a new Premier League record. Man Utd are 3/10 (1.30) to beat Southampton on Monday night. We’ll look closer at the markets for that game in our first email next week.
Brentford have won five in a row since the restart, conceding just one goal in that time. The Bees are 20/23 (1.87) to keep that run going at our promotion outsiders Derby County. I’m always wary of an odds-on price for an away in the Championship, regardless of what the formbook says.
Atalanta are on a magnificent run, with six straight victories since returning from lockdown, and nine wins in a row overall in Serie A. Atalanta go to the leaders Juventus this weekend. Juve were on a seven-game winning streak of their own in the league, until letting a 2-0 lead slip in midweek at AC Milan, going down 4-2 in a 100/1 second-half turnaround. The away team are 5/2 (3.50) to keep their run going and upset the champions on Saturday night.
Real Madrid are the front-runners in Spanish title race, one point clear of Barcelona, with a game in hand. Real have won seven out of seven in La Liga since play resumed last month, conceding just two goals. The Madrid club are just 1/4 (1.25) at best to make it eight wins in a row v Alaves tonight, and odds-on in the To Win to Nil betting, too, at around 4/5 (1.80). Real have won 1-0, three times in a row. Another 1-0 Correct Score is a top price 13/2 (7.5) with BetVictor.
7/1 for a Half Time/Full Time upset…
From those four form teams, with the prices in mind, the one I like are Atalanta. To squeeze out the very best odds regarding the potential upset at Juventus, the Half Time/Full Time (HT/FT) market might be the place to go…
Five of Juve’s seven games in all comps since the restart have been level at half time. Atlanta have been drawing at half time and winning at full time in three of their last four games. Two of their last three Serie A meetings with Juventus have also been all-square after 45 minutes.
With the upside in the odds being for the away team here, odds of 7/1 for the Draw/Atalanta option present us with a nice price to put those HT/FT trends to work.
Today’s picks
Tottenham v Arsenal (Sun 4.30pm, Sky Sports)
Premier League
- Most Corners: Tottenham @ 17/20 (1.85) with Sportingbet, Bwin, 4/5 (1.8) Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, 3/4 (1.75) William Hill, 8/11 (1.73) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet
Some bookies call Most Corners the Corners Match Bet, or Full Time Corners Win.
- Most Cards: Arsenal @ 6/5 (2.2) with Betway, Bet365 (0 Card Handicap), 57/50 (2.14) 888 Sport, Unibet
Also available – Most Booking Points: Arsenal @ Evens (2.0) with William Hill, 4/5 (1.8) Skybet. Various Cards & Bookings markets are also offered by Marathonbet, NetBet, 10Bet, Sportingbet, Bwin, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
Wolves v Everton (Sun 12 noon, Sky Sports)
Bournemouth v Leicester (Sun 7pm, Sky Sports)
Premier League
- Double – Most Corners: Wolves & Leicester @ 6/4 (2.5) with Skybet, 5/4+ (2.25+) BetVictor, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet
Juventus v Atalanta (Sat 8.45pm, Premier Sports)
Italy, Serie A
- Half Time/Full Time: Draw/Atalanta @ 7/1 (8.0) with Betway, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, 888 Sport, Unibet, 13/2 (7.5) elsewhere
UEFA competitions to consider…
The Champions League and Europa League draws were made today. I’ll be running the rule over the match-ups and revised Outright prices in our Monday email. As well as supplying you with my latest analysis for the Monday fixtures, too.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
