Stats Picks for tonight - including Liverpool v Atletico...
Wednesday 11th March 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Champions League Stats Picks...
- Liverpool v Atletico Madrid...
- PSG v Borussia Dortmund...
Stats Picks…
We weren’t far off landing two out of two winners on the stats last night.
RB Leipzig covered the -1 Corner Handicap, 6-3. But an 87th minute goal from substitute Emil Forsberg, with basically his first touch after coming on, nudged the Total Goals tally to 3, edging out our Under 2.5 Goals pick. Final score: RB Leipzig 3 Tottenham 0.
Tottenham are now 6 games without a win in all competitions. And Leipzig have now kept 6 Clean Sheets out of 7.
The Champions League Last 16, 2nd Legs continue this evening:
(1st Leg scores in brackets)
Liverpool (0) v Atletico Madrid (1)
PSG (1) v Borussia Dortmund (2) - to be played behind closed doors
- All kick offs 8pm, live on BT Sport
The PSG game is being played without fans in the stadium, due to the coronavirus outbreak. This evening’s Premier League fixture between Man City and Arsenal has been postponed as a precautionary measure, too.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Here are our Stats Picks and analysis for tonight:
Liverpool v Atletico Madrid
TONIGHT 8pm
Most Bookings: Atletico Madrid
In the 1st Leg in Spain, we followed what the stats & formbook were saying and successfully backed Liverpool to receive the Most Bookings. This evening at Anfield, that betting opportunity is reversed, with Atletico now our contenders in this market…
Here are Liverpool’s Cards & Booking Points For figures from their last 8 home games in all comps:
0 Cards (0 Pts) v Bournemouth
0 Cards (0 Pts) v West Ham
1 Yellow (10 Pts) v Shrewsbury*
0 Cards (0 Pts) v Southampton
1 Yellow (10 Pts) v Man Utd
0 Cards (0 Pts) v Everton*
0 Cards (0 Pts) v Sheffield Utd
1 Card (10 Pts) v Wolves
*FA Cup - Liverpool fielded youth team players
In terms of Yellow Cards form, you won’t really find better behaviour than that.
Yes, the emphasis tonight is for Liverpool to ‘fight’ to stay in the competition, trailing as they are, 1-0 on aggregate. But the flipside of that plotline is that Atletico have a lead to defend. And Diego Simeone’s team are one of the best in the business at digging in to a task and making it gritty...
Atletico have played 3 Champions League away games this season, receiving at least 2 Cards For in all of them: 2 Yellows (20 Pts) at Lokomotiv Moscow, 2 Yellows (20 Pts) at Bayer Leverkusen, then 4 Yellows (40 Pts) at Juventus.
That 2+ Cards For trend continues into the recent form. In their last 8 games in all comps played away from their own ground, Atletico have picked up at least 2 Yellows every time.
In 4 of Liverpool’s last 5 Champions League home games, the visiting team has got the Most Cards & Booking Points. That includes 2 out of 3 European nights at Anfield this season.
- Most Booking Points: Atletico @ 3/4 (1.75) with Boylesports, 4/6 (1.67) Skybet, 6/10 (1.60) William Hill
Or:
- Atletico 0 Card Handicap @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365. Asian Handicap Total Bookings: Atletico -0.5 @ 5/7 (1.71) NetBet, 10Bet. Most Cards: Atletico @ 8/13 (1.62) Betway, 888 Sport, Unibet
PSG v Borussia Dortmund
TONIGHT 8pm
PSG -2 Corner Handicap
PSG are 2-1 down from the 1st Leg. Playing in an empty stadium tonight, the Paris club are looking to overturn that deficit…
A 1-0 win would actually be enough to put PSG through to the quarter finals on the away goals rule. But as both managers have alluded to in their comments to the press this week, that’s not really how both teams play.
With the attacking styles of both sides, and the likes of Neymar (PSG) and Erling Braut Haaland (Dortmund) lethal threats in front of goal, it’s no real surprise that the bookies are short odds-on for another Over 2.5 Goals result. That option is just 1/3 (1.33).
The Corners markets hold a more appealing prospect...
With PSG starting the game behind on the scoreboard, they’re going to need to go in search of a goal or two this evening. Against stubborn and/ or high quality opponents, that scenario can often lead to a high corners score for the attacking side.
Dortmund have won the Most Corners in just 2 of 7 Champions League games this season.
PSG -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 5 of their last 6 home games in the French league, winning 3+ corners more than opponents in those 5 games.
PSG have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 3 home games in the Champions League, and in 8 of their last 10 at Le Parc des Princes in this competition over the last three seasons.
- PSG -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with Skybet, BetVictor, 21/20 (2.05) William Hill, 23/25 (1.92) 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 17/20 (1.85) Betway
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s Stats Picks are:
- Liverpool v Atletico Madrid - Most Booking Points: Atletico @ 3/4
- PSG v Borussia Dortmund - PSG -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10
I’ll be back on Friday with your Stats Picks for the weekend games. Including a detailed look at the stats for the Old Firm derby, Rangers v Celtic.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
