Two 10/1 picks for the Seville derby tonight...
Thursday 11th June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- La Liga – Big Match Preview…
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
- Sevilla v Real Betis…
La Liga – Big Match Preview…
Top-flight football returns in Spain tonight…
So far this week we’ve been building up to kick off in La Liga. You can view our two standout stats guides in the Email Archive by logging-in to our website and going to the Picks & Analysis tab.
You’ll also find a Head-2-Head home v away stats comparison for tonight’s first game back, Sevilla v Real Betis…
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
Sevilla v Real Betis
Spain – La Liga
9pm, live on Premier Sports
Scorers…
In Wednesday’s email we looked at five La Liga players to consider in the Scorer markets in the games & weeks to come, beyond the top two of Barcelona’s Lionel Messi and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema.
One of those names was Sevilla’s top scorer this season, Lucas Ocampos. The Argentinean is priced up around 2/1 (3.00) for tonight’s game, but the team news reports suggest that he might not be fit enough to take part.
Sevilla forwards Youssef En-Nesyri and Luuk de Jong are at the top of the Anytime Scorer betting, in the region of 6/4 (2.50) each to find the net.
The disciplinary category gets our attention in this game…
Cards & Bookings…
In Tuesday’s email we highlighted the historical high-cards trends in the Seville derby. In our research, we noted that:
- Each of the last 15 Seville derbies in La Liga have gone Over 4.5 Cards – with 7 of them seeing a Red Card
No surprise then that the bookies are expecting a high Cards & Bookings total in tonight’s game…
Bet365 have set their line at Over 7.5 Cards, at odds of 11/10 (2.10). Skybet are in similar territory, with 80+ Booking Points priced at 10/11 (1.91).
Both of those options require 8 Yellow Cards to be dished out. Or 6 Yellows and a Red. Find out more about how Cards & Booking Points bets work here.
How the ‘derby’ aspect pans out behind closed doors with no fans remains to be seen. The first game back after lockdown in the German Bundesliga last month was also a derby with the no-crowd factor, Borussia Dortmund v Schalke, and we saw just 4 Yellows in that one (40 Booking Points).
Two player picks…
Rather than stretch for a high Cards total in today’s game, the derby & discipline backdrop leads us to a couple player picks in the Cards & Bookings markets…
On our website, the Player Stats tab of the Head-2-Head points out three players worthy of particular consideration here:
Zouhair Feddal is the favourite for a card tonight, odds-on across the board, with 3/4 (1.75) with Skybet and William Hill the best offer.
Andres Guardado and Fernando are two men set to line up in the midfield battle, and both are available on the better side of Evens (2.00).
Betis man Guardado has been booked in 4 out of 8 away league games this season, and in 6 of his last 9 La Liga appearances overall before the halt in play. The Mexican has got a total of 9 yellows in the league so far in 2019/20. No player in the division has got more than 11.
For Sevilla, Fernando has collected yellow cards in 5 out of 11 home league starts, and in 6 of his last 9 games in all competitions. He also picked up a card in the last meeting between these sides, at Betis in November. The Brazilian is high up the La Liga list with a total of 10 yellows to his name this season.
Options and prices…
In the To Be Booked market – which covers the whole game, much like an Anytime Scorer bet does – Guardado is a top price 11/8 (2.38) with BetVictor to get a card, 5/4 (2.25) with William Hill and Evens (2.00) with Skybet. Fernando is best price 7/5 (2.40) with Skybet and William Hill, and around Evens elsewhere.
For a more speculative choice, but with greater rewards on the table, the First Player Carded markets have both men at 10/1+…
Guardado is a standout 16/1 with BetVictor, and 10/1 elsewhere. Fernando’s last two bookings before the halt in play were both actually the first of the game. He’s a top price 11/1 with William Hill.
With the Cards & Bookings stats the focus for this and many other derby fixtures, you could do worse than follow those two card-happy midfielders at the ‘First Card’ prices tonight…
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Sevilla v Real Betis
- First Player Carded – Andres Guardado @ 16/1 (17.00) with BetVictor, 10/1 (11.00) William Hill, Skybet
And
- First Player Carded – Fernando @ 11/1 (12.00) with William Hill, 10/1 (11.00) BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook, 9/1 (10.00) Bet365, Skybet
I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with your full weekend preview, including Stats Picks & Analysis for the Bundesliga and La Liga…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
