Europa League Quarter Finals - Day Two picks & analysis...
Tuesday 11th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Europa League quarter finals tonight…
- Wolves v Sevilla…
- Shakhtar Donetsk v Basel…
Europa League Quarter Finals – Day Two picks & analysis…
Not many people would’ve predicted a goalless draw between Man Utd and Copenhagen last night.
As noted in yesterday’s email, the Premier League outfit were short odds-on at 2/9 (1.22) to win in normal time. Anyone taking those short odds would’ve been stung. United eventually got the job done, winning 1-0 in extra time, thanks to a penalty from talisman Bruno Fernandes.
First Goalscorer bets only apply to normal time, so all 12 Man Utd players at the top of the betting yesterday (including Fernandes) came up dry in that market. And yes, that was 12 Man Utd players – more than you can have on the pitch at any one time – all ahead of any Copenhagen names…
Of course, you could point out that the Danish rank outsiders didn’t register a single shot on target. And you’d be right. But when it came to the Scorer markets, none of the United players at the top of the betting did any better than our 14/1 long-shot Jonas Wind. The 21-year-old is one to look out for next season, in the Danish league and in Europe.
Stats and pointers for tonight…
The Champions League returns tomorrow. Tonight, the Europa League knockout action continues, with the remaining two quarter finals.
On Monday our research flagged up a couple of areas that went to form on the night. Romelu Lukuku scored for Inter Milan, and Nicolo Barella was booked again for the Italians (Barella scored the opening goal, too). Man Utd won the Most Corners against Copenhagen, and the 6-2 tally in normal time was enough to beat the -3 Corner Handicap discussed in yesterday’s analysis.
On to tonight’s games…
Sevilla v Wolves
After Inter Milan beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 last night, we have Inter through to the semi finals. Tonight, for our 16/1 or 14/1 Name the Finalists selection, we’re looking for Sevilla to get through and keep the chance of that payout alive.
The bookmakers make the Spanish side 8/13 (1.62) favourites to go through.
- If you’re looking for a saver bet to protect/ recoup your original Name the Finalists stake, then you could put the same size stake on Wolves To Qualify at 6/5 (2.2)
The leading names in the Anytime Scorer markets are two familiar men from recent weeks. For Wolves, the star player is Raul Jimenez. For Sevilla, the key scorer and penalty taker is Lucas Ocampos. Both players can be backed at over 2/1 (3.0+) in places today. That’s bigger than in last week’s round of Europa League ties.
The reason for those slightly larger Scorer prices is because goals could be hard to come by in this one. Expect plenty of tidy and attractive possession football. But defence might come out on top…
Eleven of Wolves’ last 12 games in all competitions have gone Under 2.5 Goals. Likewise, five of Sevilla’s last six have seen 2 or less Total Goals. The Under/ Over market has Under 2.5 Goals as a clear 1/2 (1.5) favourite.
As with Inter yesterday, we’re looking for Sevilla to get through tonight – and we’ll be happy with any score-line, or method of victory. Skybet go 5/1 (6.0) for either team to win in extra time, and 5/1 for it to be decided by a penalty shootout.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Basel
The Total Goals stats are the other way up for the evening’s second quarter final…
Since the restart, seven out of 10 Shakhtar games in all comps have gone Over 2.5 Goals. And six of those also went over the higher Over 3.5 Goals line.
Basel have just had three Under 2.5 results in a row. But before that, the Swiss side were involved in 4-4, 0-5, 2-2, 4-0 and 3-2 score-lines in July.
Over 2.5 Goals is 8/11 (1.73) in this one.
Shakhtar are the 10/11 (1.91) favourites to win the game in normal time. If we’re going to see goalmouth action, then the Ukrainian side’s top scorer should be the first name to consider…
At 33 years of age, Junior Moraes is vastly experienced. This season, he’s been prolific in two areas: scoring goals, and receiving yellow cards…
The Shakhtar striker finished top scorer in the Ukrainian league this season. Moraes has bagged a total of 14 goals in 18 appearances for the club in 2019/20. He’s also been booked on nine occasions.
Isolating the form to the last five games, Moraes has scored six goals and picked up three yellow cards. Landing Anytime Scorer bets in four out of five games, scoring the first goal twice. And giving three payouts in the Player to be Booked market.
At odds-against to score tonight, Moraes is a bigger price than Shakhtar to win, or the game to go Over 2.5 Goals. And at 3/1+ to be booked, he looks value for another yellow card, in what is a high-pressure knockout game…
Today’s picks
Europa League
Shakhtar Donetsk v Basel
8pm, BT Sport
- Anytime Scorer: Junior Moraes @ 7/5 (2.4) with Sportingbet, Bwin, 11/8 (2.38) with Betfred, 5/4 (2.25) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 6/5 (2.2) Boylesports
- Player to be Booked: Junior Moraes @ 16/5 (4.2) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1 (4.0) Bet365, Boylesports
I’ll be back tomorrow, when we’ll be turning our attention to the Champions League quarter finals.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
