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Atalanta v PSG tonight - 33/1 for a turnaround...

Wednesday 12th August 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • UEFA Final Eight analysis & advice…
  • Champions League quarter finals…
  • Atalanta v PSG…

Atalanta v PSG tonight – 33/1 for a turnaround…

We’re on Champions League duty this evening. But first, a few words on our Europa League position, and on the picks & pointers that I deliver in your Across the Leagues emails…

Last night’s stats…

It took Junior Moraes just two minutes to open the scoring last night…

Our man to watch in the Shakhtar Donetsk game got his team up and running early on. And the Ukrainian side never looked back, romping to a 4-1 win over Basel – and it could’ve been more.

Moraes didn’t get a card – which was my other pick in that game, along with him to score.

There were plenty of other pointers in yesterday’s match preview and analysis that hopefully help steer you in a profitable direction…

For example, the Shakhtar game went Over 2.5 Goals, and Wolves-Sevilla went Under 2.5. With both franking the recent Total Goals form as mentioned in our match-day email.

On the player front, as well as Moraes getting on the score-sheet, the two men earmarked as most likely in the evening’s other Europa League quarter final also proved the key players of interest. Raul Jimenez missed a first-half penalty for Wolves. Lucas Ocampus sent Sevilla through with a late winner…

  • Despite the narrow margin of victory, the match stats show just how strong Sevilla were last night: bossing the possession with 75%, the corners 14-0, and the total shots, 10-3

That 1-0 win for the Spanish side keeps our ‘Name the Finalists’ pick alive…

Inter & Sevilla now 2/1 at best…

The Europa League semi final line-up is as follows:

  • Sevilla v Man Utd (Sunday 8pm)
  • Inter Milan v Shakhtar Donetsk (Monday 8pm)

In the To Qualify markets, the bookies make Sevilla an Even-Money chance (2.0), and Inter odds-on at 2/5 (1.4). That double comes out at 9/5 (2.8).

Skybet have that same combo at 2/1 (3.0) in the Name the Finalists market. We’re on that Inter & Sevilla option at a standout 16/1 or 14/1 from last week. We have a very good price on our side.

Picks v Pointers…

As this week’s Europa League coverage has hopefully demonstrated, your Across the Leagues package gives you plenty of betting ammo, and food for thought.

With a few new members onboard this month (hello and welcome to you), here’s a brief note on how the service works:

In your member emails each week, I share with you my analysis and research, and my reading of the unique betting stats from our website. My own observations, thoughts and opinions…

You’ll find plenty of useful pointers in the stats on your members-only Across the Leagues website. And in the research, previews, write-ups and analysis that I fill your emails with each week.

Just because something doesn’t make it to the ‘Today’s Picks’ section at the end of the email, it doesn’t mean there is no betting merit to it. I present all the analysis, so you can make your own informed choices, should you wish to do so. Actually, there’s no better email I like to receive from members than someone telling me about their own wins and profits.

My picks will usually be something going for an attractive price. A chance to grab some value. Odds that catch my eye as too big. Or simply the bet that I like the look of the most, having done all my research. These picks are my opinion and choices. You can follow me. Or make your own picks.

  • In other news… we’ll be announcing some new leagues and new stats on our website this summer. Meaning your Across the Leagues site will, once again, be bigger & better as we head towards a new season. More on that soon

Moving on to today’s football…

Atalanta v PSG tonight…

There are three Scottish Premiership games this evening. It’s still early day there. I’m monitoring the form. It’s been a bit stop-start so far, with a few games postponed due to various coronavirus-related issues. All the 2020/21 Scottish Premiership stats and Head-2-Heads are on our website for you.

My sole focus today is the Champions League

The UEFA ‘Final Eight’ event continues with the start of the quarter finals. As with the Europa League, all these ties are played as one-off games, to be decided on the night, and played at neutral venues. Portugal is hosting the conclusion of the Champions League.

The action kicks off tonight with Atalanta v PSG.

This is an interesting one, as PSG are the favourites, Evens (2.0) to win in normal time, and 4/7 (1.57) To Qualify. But Atalanta have match sharpness on their side, having played 13 times to complete the Italian season since June. While in France, PSG were crowned champions without having to play another game after the country went into lockdown.

Goals & Scorers…

For the season overall, you can’t ignore the goals stats for these teams. Atalanta were top scorers in Serie A, and had a 71% record for Over 2.5 Goals bets.

  • In the Champions League this season, 6 out of 8 Atalanta games have gone Over 2.5 Goals (75%)

As the Serie A League Stats table on our website shows, Atalanta had three players in the Top 10 scorers for the season: Duvan Zapata (18 goals), Luis Muriel (18), and Josep Ilicic (15):

Serie A Top Scorers

Ilicic is out tonight. Muriel got the same amount of goals as Zapata this season, although the latter made fewer appearances, having been out injured half-way through the campaign.

In the Scorer markets, Zapata is the man to follow on the Italian side. He’s around 6/4 (2.5) to score Anytime, and a top price 6/1 (7.0) to score First.

  • Duvan Zapata has scored 7 goals in 13 games since the restart. Landing 6 x Anytime Scorer bets and 3 x First Scorer

PSG’s star players lead the markets. Neymar, and the returning from injury Kylian Mbappe, are both shorter in the betting than the Atalanta frontman.

Before the 2019/20 season was halted prematurely in France, PSG were on a run of nine out of 10 games going Over 2.5 Goals.

Considering the firepower on show, it’s not surprising at all, then, that the bookies make Over 2.5 Goals a clear favourite at 4/7 (1.57) in the Under/ Over betting tonight.

In the Win & Both Teams to Score options, PSG are around 12/5 (3.4), with Atalanta at 9/2 (5.5).

Returning to this 28/1 angle…

With all that goal-scoring potential in the melting pot, this one-off, knockout game could prove the right time to return to the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/FT) angle I mentioned on Atalanta a few weeks ago…

Atalanta have had five HT/FT turnarounds (either way) in their last 21 games in all competitions. And four going their way (half time losing, full time winning) from their last 18 games.

With odds of 20/1+ generally available for HT/FT comebacks in matches, you can see just how profitable this speculative betting tactic can be…

The Serie A side have done this twice since play resumed in June:

  • If you’d taken the HT Lose/ FT Atalanta Win route at 20/1 in all 13 of Atalanta’s games since the restart in Italy, you’d have staked 13 points, and returned 42 pts. Giving 29 pts profit, for a 223% ROI

For this evening’s game against the French champions, you can get 28/1 and even 33/1 for that Atalanta turnaround option. And around 25/1 for the PSG half time/ full time flip-flop.

For their part, PSG have conceded the first goal and come back to win the game on two occasions in their last six competitive matches…

Some bookies offer a ‘Win From Behind’ market. Skybet have the best prices on that outcome tonight, with PSG at 17/2 (9.5) and Atalanta at 14/1 (15.0).

The potential script…

With the thinking being that PSG could be a bit rusty of slow off the mark tonight, taking Atalanta striker Zapata at 6/1 to open the scoring is my pick. Along with those HT/FT options at fancy prices of 25/1 and 33/1.

You can’t rule out Neymar and co turning on the magic at some point for PSG. But it could make for an exciting evening if the underdogs Atalanta strike first. The Italian side are just 5/4 (2.25) in the Team to Score First market. I’m drawn to much bigger prices…

Today’s picks

Champions League

Atalanta v PSG
8pm, BT Sport

  • First Goalscorer: Duvan Zapata @ 6/1 (7.0) with Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/2 (6.5) Betway, 5/1 (6.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 
  • Half Time/ Full Time: Atalanta/ PSG @ 25/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, 22/1 Betfred, Vbet, 20/1 Bet365, Betway, Boylesports
  • Half Time/ Full Time: PSG/ Atalanta @ 33/1 with Betfred, 30/1 Vbet, 28/1 Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports 

I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of the second quarter final, RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues

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