Leipzig v Atletico tonight - 11/1 for the last man...
Thursday 13th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- UEFA Final Eight analysis & advice…
- Champions League quarter finals…
- RB Leipzig v Atletico Madid…
Leipzig v Atletico tonight – 11/1 for the last man…
When you’ve got the world’s two most expensive footballers on the pitch, you’ve always got a chance…
PSG’s injury-time winner last night saw Neymar play in Kylian Mbappe. A lightning-quick move, culminating in the ball being slid across the six-yard box for Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting to bury it in the net.
Neymar cost £200 million. Mbappe was £162m. And the goalscorer, Choupo-Moting? A free transfer from Stoke City in 2018. It’s a funny ol’ game.
That late turnaround saw last night’s opening Champions League quarter final end in high drama. And the ‘script’ went just about as we hoped it would...
Underdogs Atalanta got their noses in front in the first half, 1-0. Favourites PSG flipped the score on its head in the second half, stealing it 2-1, late on.
The flip-flop landed odds of 25/1 on the Atalanta/ PSG option in the Half Time/ Full Time market, as flagged up in yesterday’s analysis.
That’s a great example of how going for the big prices can pay off.
Plenty of other potential bets came up in the course of Wednesday’s match preview and research: Atalanta scored first at 5/4 (2.25). The game went Over 2.5 Goals at 4/7 (1.57). PSG Win & Both Teams to Score was 12/5 (3.4). PSG To Win From Behind was 17/2 (9.5).
But the HT/ FT route was the biggest price and most speculative of the lot.
Playing the long game…
We won’t land 25/1 shots very often. In fact, the last time I had a successful Half Time/ Full Time pick like that was in the Champions League semi finals last season, May 2019.
Since then, I’ve flagged up a couple of games with decent criteria for that option, at odds of 22/1 and 28/1. And come up empty-handed.
But at those prices, you don’t need to win very often. And it’s well worth the wait when the good nights do come along…
Across the Leagues member Sunil (who I’m assuming is a Man Utd fan), emailed in last night:
“Well what can I say about that....even The Phoenix wouldn't leave it that late....reminds me of my team in the 1999 CL Final”
And Fiona got in touch this morning to say that she got 34/1. Brilliant stuff.
How did you do? Email me at: info@oxonpress.co.uk
Keep that Atalanta angle in mind…
If Atalanta play the same brand of attacking football next season, we should keep them on the radar for Half Time/ Full Time bets at fancy prices:
- Last night’s result was the 6th time in their last 22 games that Atalanta have been involved in a HT/ FT turnaround (to either team)
RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid tonight…
On to today’s match now, and the Champions League quarter finals continue with what should be another quality affair.
The Over 2.5 Goals stats went to form in the end last night, but for over an hour the score sat at 1-0. If Atletico Madrid revert to type this evening, then the 1-0 Correct Score wouldn’t be a bad one to follow…
With a total of 49 games played, Atletico’s most common score-lines in all competitions this season have been:
1-0 x 8
2-0 x 6
In the Champions League, Atleti have played eight matches, and three of them have seen just one goal scored (with two 1-0 wins for the Spanish club).
Diego Simeone’s side finished 2019/20 joint-top of the La Liga standings on our website for Under 2.5 Goals, with a 71% strike-rate for that bet. They also had the second-best defensive record, with only league champions Real Madrid conceding fewer goals.
Low score-line a distinct possibility…
After the restart in Spain, seven of Atletico’s 11 games went Under 2.5 Goals.
RB Leipzig ended the campaign in Germany with three of their five fixtures producing Under 2.5 Goals. Their top scorer for the season, and the man who scored each of their last three goals, Timo Werner has now departed for Chelsea.
The bookies make Under 2.5 Goals a 4/7 (1.57) favourite tonight.
In the Match Result betting, the vastly-experienced Spanish club are 5/4 (2.25) to win, and 8/13 (1.62) To Qualify.
With the goals stats and Atletico’s defensive strengths in mind, I make the 1-0 Correct Score a good percentage pick here. That option is around 5/1 (6.0).
Over the course of all 49 games played by the Madrid club this season, you’d only have just about hit break-even by backing that score at that price in every game. However, in the Champions League, the Atletico 1-0 route has produced a 50% ROI.
And considering that eight of Atletico’s last 10 match wins in the Champions League have been To Nil (going back to 2017, all under Simeone), the 1-0 score-line has plenty going for it here.
If the Spanish club are going to win in normal time this evening, then the evidence says that 1-0 is the most likely result.
11/1 for the last scorer…
There’s one more angle I like for this game. With Timo Werner off to try his hand in the Premier League next season, Leipzig’s front-line has taken a big blow.
The forwards who will be looking to make their name in Werner’s absence, for now at least, are Yussef Poulsen, Patrick Schick and Emil Forsberg.
Schick scored three times in seven games after the Bundesliga returned from lockdown (scoring the first goal on two occasions), but picked up an injury in June and hasn’t played since. Poulsen has also been out injured. Both men could feature tonight, but there are no guarantees. They are both ahead of Forsberg in the betting.
With Atletico likely to prioritise a clean sheet, it makes sense to tread carefully with any Scorer selections from the opposition line-up. But taking a look at a Leipzig player with a noteworthy record, and available at underdog prices, is an option with merit…
Forsberg is something of a late-goal specialist:
- The Swedish forward has found the net in 9 games this season for club & country. On no less than 7 occasions, he’s landed Last Goalscorer bets
That includes last-goal payouts in the Champions League against Tottenham and Benfica, where the 28-year-old struck a total of three times, all coming after the 87th minute.
His last two goals for the Red Bull club have both come in the closing stages of matches, after coming off the bench in the final 15 minutes.
Yesterday we spoke about the potential ‘script’ in the Atalanta-PSG game. If Atletico are a goal to the good tonight and the clock is running down, Forsberg could be the man to pop up with an important late goal for the German side. His form-sheet certainly suggests Emil has a knack for a last-ditch goal. And he takes penalties, too.
At odds of 11/1, Forsberg for Last Goalscorer stands out as an attractive outside bet.
Today’s picks
Champions League
RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid
8pm, BT Sport
- Correct Score: Atletico 1-0 @ 11/2 (6.5) with Boylesports, Paddy Power, BetVictor, Skybet, 5/1 (6.0) in general
- Last Goalscorer: Emil Forsberg @ 11/1 with 888 Sport, Unibet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 10/1 Bet365, Betway
I’ll be back tomorrow with previews for the weekend’s knockout games in the Champions League and Europa League.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
