Weekend picks & analysis - including a 14/1 outsider...
Friday 14th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Barcelona v Bayern Munich – tonight…
- Man City v Lyon – Saturday…
- Sevilla v Man Utd – Sunday…
Weekend picks & analysis – including a 14/1 outsider…
RB Leipzig’s 2-1 victory over Atletico Madrid means that we’ve seen two out of two Champions League quarter finals settled by a 2-1 score-line this week.
Both matches also featured late goals…
Leipzig substitute Tyler Adams came on in the 72nd minute, and scored the deflected winner in the 88th min.
We weren’t far off with our ‘Last Goalscorer’ angle for the German side, then. Emil Forsberg didn’t get the chance to play super-sub for Leipzig this time, though. He was kept on the bench for the whole game. Bookies void scorer bets in those circumstances.
And we already know all about PSG’s late goals on Wednesday night…
‘My wife looked at me funny…’
After our 25/1 winner in the HT/ FT market, Across the Leagues members Eric and William wrote in with their stories:
‘My wife looked at me in a funny sort of way…’
“PSG stole it alright, makes up for all the hard luck stories we all have, thought it was another ticket to tear up coming into the 90 minute and bang PSG goal, even then thought too late, but bang again PSG 2 goal. My wife looked at me in a funny sort of way - I think the words on her lips were "IDIOT". But that's what European football nights bring…”
‘I nipped out to the garden at 88 mins…’
“Great outcome on the half time / full time bet. I had been watching the game and at 88 minutes was resigned to the bet failure. I nipped out to the garden at 88 mins and came back in about 4 minutes later to cheering and wailing and thought PSG had just equalised to take the game into extra time. Then I saw the scoreline pop up. Well, it was then me that was cheering and wailing. What a result. Just goes to show you should never give up…”
Absolutely loved reading those when they landed in the inbox. My living room was a similar scene that night.
Talking of 25/1 winners, Mike also emailed in with news of a great result. Along with our 7/2 pick on Luka Modric to be booked in last Friday’s Man City v Real Madrid game, Mike went one step further and swooped on the First Booking market…
‘A standout 25/1…’
“Made me hunt out this beauty. [Modric] First booking with BetVictor was a standout 25-1 when all the other bookmakers were going 12 to 16's”
Let’s see if we can get some more late-night celebrations going between now and the finals…
- In the Europa League, we’re on ‘Inter Milan & Sevilla’ in the Name the Finalists market. That 16/1 or 14/1 pick is now a 2/1 chance. For it to land, we need Sevilla to knock out Man Utd on Sunday night. And then Inter to get past Shakhtar on Monday
Odds of 16/1 and 25/1 (and bigger) are just the kind of thing we’ll be focusing on in the ante post markets for the upcoming 2020/21 season. More on those next week.
Weekend picks & analysis…
There are three big knockout games in the UEFA Final Eight tournaments this weekend:
Champions League – Quarter Finals:
Barcelona v Bayern Munich (tonight 8pm)
Man City v Lyon (Sat 8pm)
Europa League – Semi Final:
Sevilla v Man Utd (Sun 8pm)
- Played at neutral venues. All games live on BT Sport
There’s also a five-match fixture list in the Scottish Premiership. Home Win backers might be looking to jump on Hibernian’s three-match winning streak…
Hibs have started the season with a trio of match wins. They’re at home v Motherwell, who are yet to register a win in the new league campaign. The bookies make Hibs an Even Money (2.0) chance to make it four in a row.
If you like your historical head-to-heads, then it’s also worth knowing that Hibernian have won each of their last four home meetings against Motherwell, 3-1, 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1, going back to 2018.
My focus is on the UEFA matches. Starting with the big match tonight…
Barcelona v Bayern Munich
This is the tie of the round on paper, with two European heavyweights going toe-to-toe in this one-off, winner-takes-all clash for a place in the semi finals.
Having won 18 games in a row in all competitions, and 26 of their last 27, the bookies make Bayern the favourites. The Bundesliga winners are Evens (2.0) to win in normal time, and 8/15 (1.53) To Qualify for the semi final by any means tonight.
While everyone else will be talking about Lionel Messi and Robert Lewandowski, and trying to pick a winner between the two sides. I’m concentrating on an area you won’t hear Gary Lineker and the boys at BT Sport giving much airtime to…
Corner kings…
Our Champions League Historical Stats shows these two have been the top sides for Most Corners bets over the last seven seasons:
Bayern Munich are ranked No.1. Winning the Most Corners in 65 out of 78 Champions League games prior to the start of 2019/20. And maintaining that 83% strike-rate with six out of eight corner victories so far in this season’s competition.
Barcelona are No.2 on our historical list. Producing Most Corners payouts in 56 out of 76 Champions League games up to the end of 2018/19 (74%). This season, however, Barca’s win ratio for that bet has dropped off, with just two Most Corners wins from eight attempts across the Group stage and Last 16.
Long-time readers will know that we’ve long referred to Bayern as the ‘corner kings’ of Europe. Their current form only enforces that nametag…
The German champions have won the Most Corners in 18 of their last 20 outings in all competitions. Bossing the corners tally by enough to land a -2 Corner Handicap in 13 of those matches (winning 3+ corners more than opponents).
After a 2-6 corners reverse v Napoli last Saturday, Barcelona’s only Most Corners triumph in their last seven Champions Leagues games was a rare ‘1-0’ corners score v Borussia Dortmund in the Group stage.
- Bayern Munich are the top corner-kick winners in the Champions League this season. With a total of 71 Corners Won, at an average of 8.88 per game
- Barcelona have got 29 in total in the competition, averaging 3.63 Corners For per game
With the occasion a big one and the standard of opposition high, this game presents a fairly rare chance to back Bayern with a -2 Corner Handicap at odds of Evens or better. For most games involving the German giants, the handicap would be bigger, or the price would be short odds-on.
Man City v Lyon
Man City are the big favourites of the weekend. The Premier League club are short prices in all the win-based markets. Including odds-on quotes of just 1/4 (1.25) to get the job done in 90 minutes, and 1/10 (1.1) To Qualify.
City are also odds-on to win by more than one goal, priced at 8/11 (1.73) with a -1 Match Handicap. Pep Guardiola’s side have achieved that 2+ goals margin of victory in six of their last 10 games in all comps.
Man City players dominate the Anytime Scorer list. With nine men in sky blue at the head of the betting, including Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus at around Evens (2.0) each. Sterling has delivered in the Anytime Scorer market in five of his last seven appearances, and ditto for Jesus.
14/1 shot for the outsiders…
The Etihad club are priced at Evens for the Win to Nil, but I wouldn’t go rushing to take that option:
- Man City’s last 4 wins in the Champions League (and 7 of their last 10 in this competition) have paid out on Win & Both Teams to Score
The City Win & Both Teams to Score option is a 2/1 (3.0) shot this weekend.
With outsiders Lyon having a chance of getting on the scoresheet on Saturday night, I’m drawn to their main man in front of goal in Europe…
Ex-Man Utd player Memphis Depay has scored in six out of six Champions League appearances this season. The Dutchman takes penalties, too. Most recently finding the net from the spot against Juventus last week.
Only two players have scored more Champions League goals than Depay this season (Lewandowski, and Erling Braut Haaland).
- Depay has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 7 of his last 10 games for Lyon. Three of those saw the 26-year-old deliver in the First Goalscorer market, too
In three of their last six Champions League games, Man City have conceded the first goal…
As an outsider selection for the French underdogs, Depay stands out as the man to follow at a nice price. He’s 4/1 to score Anytime, and 14/1 to strike first.
Sevilla v Man Utd
Sunday night’s Europa League semi final looks 50-50 on paper…
Man Utd have lost just once in 24 games, and finished 3rd in the Premier League.
Sevilla are on a 19-game unbeaten run, and finished 4th in La Liga.
United lifted this trophy in 2017. Before that, the Spanish club had won it three years in a row.
The bookies have Man Utd as the slight favourites, 6/4 (2.5) to win the match, and 8/11 (1.73) to go through. With Sevilla 11/5 (3.2) for the win, and 21/20 (2.05) to reach the final.
For our Name the Finalists bet from earlier in the month, we’re looking for Sevilla to go through. Keeping the dream of the 16/1 win alive, with the other half of our selection, Inter Milan, playing their semi on Monday.
Sticking with the 50-50 theme, Sevilla and Man Utd are the top two clubs in the Europa League for Corners Won this season:
- Sevilla are 1st with an average of 7.4 corners per game. Man Utd are 2nd with an average of 5.64
These two are also the top teams in the Europa League for average Possession, and total Attempts on goal. With Sevilla just in front in both departments.
In the Premier League this season, Man Utd won the Most Corners in 58% of games. In La Liga in Spain, Sevilla were the No.1 team for that bet, winning the Most Corners in 66% of games.
Since the restart in June, United have won the Most Corners in eight of 13 matches in all comps. Sevilla have a matching record.
It’s 50-50 all the way, then, with a couple of bookies making Man Utd the slight favourite to win the Corners Match Bet on Sunday night, while others have the Spanish club slight odds-on.
My opinion is, Sevilla will see more of the ball. And if they play anything like their level against Wolves this week – where the possession was 75%, and the corners tally was 14-0 in their favour – then the men from Spain are the ones to back here.
Today’s picks
Champions League:
Barcelona v Bayern Munich
8pm, BT Sport
- Bayern Munich -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.1) with William Hill, Evens (2.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, Marathonbet (-2.5 Corner Handicap), 888 Sport, Unibet
Also available at 10/11+ (1.91+) with Betway, BetVictor, Bet365.
Man City v Lyon
Sat 8pm, BT Sport
- First Goalscorer – EACH WAY: Memphis Depay @ 14/1 with Bet365 (Each Way terms: 1/3rd odds Unlimited goals)
Alternatively, take the best prices you can get on Depay in the individual Anytime Scorer and First Goalscorer markets. Eg. 9/2 (5.5) Anytime and 14/1 First with Betway.
Europa League:
Sevilla v Man Utd
Sun 8pm, BT Sport
- Most Corners: Sevilla @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365, 23/20 (2.15) BetVictor
Some bookies call the Most Corners market the ‘Corners Match Bet.’ Other firms will price up by Sunday, eg. Skybet, Paddy Power, Betway.
I’ll be back on Monday with a look at the Europa League semi final between Inter Milan and Shaktar Donetsk…
Next week I’ll also be outlining our plan of action for targeting the 2020/21 ante post markets. After some great Top Goalscorer results this year, that’s one area we’ll be covering for sure.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
