Weekend Stats Picks for the Bundesliga...
Friday 15th May 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- German Bundesliga…
- Head-2-Heads online now…
- Weekend Stats Picks…
Stats Picks…
After two months without any top-flight football to keep us entertained, we finally have some action back on our screens this weekend with the return of the German Bundesliga.
There are six fixtures on Saturday afternoon, two on Sunday, and one on Monday night. BT Sport are showing every game.
The Bundesliga coming back is a big deal in the football world. The excitement seems to have gone to some people’s heads…
Augsburg’s manager will have to miss his team’s game v Wolfsburg, as he broke quarantine rules by leaving the team hotel to buy toothpaste. And with no supporters allowed in the stadiums, Borussia Monchengladbach fans have been donating cardboard cut-outs to help create some ‘atmosphere’ in their ground.
It’s time to get back down to business with a look at the standout stats, match-ups and betting markets…
Everything you need online…
For the last couple of weeks, we’ve been building up to kick off in Germany. That includes our three-part, Team-by-Team stats guide to the Bundesliga over the last few days. You can catch up on all those emails by logging-in to your members-only Across the Leagues website and selecting Email Archive from the Picks & Analysis tab.
The site is fully loaded-up ready for the German games. Go to European Leagues and then select Bundesliga:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
As well as League Stats, Team Stats, Form, Totals and Results sections for the Bundesliga, you’ll also find Head-2-Head stats comparisons for all of this weekend’s games. Giving you an at-glance guide to the home v away form and standout stats & betting markets for each game.
Within each Head-2-Head, you’ll then find the info spilt into the following headings: Match Results, Goals, Cards & Bookings, Half Time Results, and Player Stats.
For example, here’s the Head-2-Head home page, with Borussia Dortmund v Schalke as the selected game:
BUNDESLIGA – STATS PICKS
The first thing we can do regarding this weekend’s Stats Picks is refer back to our initial look at Week 26 of the Bundesliga schedule, which was originally supposed to take place on the weekend of 13th March.
Back then, we’d pinpointed these two games as Over 2.5 Goals prospects. Here’s a refresher of what we said first time around…
OVER 2.5 GOALS
The numbers are clear here. These sides – especially title-chasing Bayern Munich & Leipzig, who between them boast the league’s two top scorers in Robert Lewandowski & Timo Werner – are very consistent for ‘high goals’…
RB Leipzig v Freiburg – Over 2.5 Goals (@ 4/7)
Saturday 2.30pm
- RB Leipzig – 7 of last 8 home league games Over 2.5 Goals, 75% for season at home
- Freiburg – 4 of last 7 away games Over 2.5 Goals. Beat Leipzig 2-1 in the reverse fixture
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich – Over 2.5 Goals (@ 4/9)
Sunday 5pm
- Union Berlin – last 4 games all Over 2.5 Goals, with score-lines of: 3-1, 2-2, 1-2, 2-3
- Bayern Munich – 1st in Bundesliga for this bet, including a 92% away record for Over 2.5 Goals (11 out of 12 games). Bayern’s last 10 away league games have all seen 3+ Total Goals
The odds available are slightly increased from when we first looked at these games. Our Stats Pick is a double:
- ACCA – Double: Over 2.5 Goals in the two games above @ 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365 and in general
ANYTIME SCORERS
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke
Saturday 2.30pm
This is the headline match on the returning Bundesliga schedule, and in the first kick-off slot on Saturday afternoon.
This is also a derby game – billed as the biggest derby in Germany, in fact – so it puts a question mark next to the season-long Cards & Bookings form…
- The Head-2-Head on our site shows this is a strong 100% v 75% match-up for the home v away form for UNDER 4.5 Cards. That bet is priced at 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365
- However, 7 of the last 10 Dortmund-Schalke derbies have gone OVER 4.5 Cards
The Bundesliga League Stats Referees page on our site shows that Denis Aytekin, the man in black for this game, is averaging 4.4 Cards per game. Which is just about bang-on that Bet365 Under/ Over line.
With contrasting stats to work with there, and the unknown factor of how ‘tasty’ a derby will be behind closed doors with no fans, the Cards & Bookings markets are best left alone for this one.
However, the Anytime Scorer stats are of interest…
As reported in our Team-by-Team guide this week, Dortmund striker Erling Bruat Haaland has hit the ground running since arriving from Salzburg in January:
- The 19-year-old Norwegian has bagged a remarkable 12 goals in his first 11 appearances in a yellow shirt
- In the Bundesliga, Haaland has racked up 9 goals in 8 games – landing 5 Anytime Scorer payouts
- Haaland has scored in 4 out of 5 home games for Dortmund in all competitions
Dortmund are 2nd in the league and unbeaten at home so far, and have scored in 100% of Bundesliga games at the Westfalenstadion this season. The home win is 1/2 (1.50). Once again, though, the derby factor needs considering here:
- From their last 10 clashes with Schalke, Dortmund have managed a total of just 3 victories
The young striker stands out as our Stats Pick here:
- Anytime Scorer – Erling Braut Haaland @ 5/6 (1.83) with Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 4/5 (1.80) Betway, William Hill
FC Koln v Mainz 05
Sunday 2.30pm
This is 10th v 15th in the table. Koln (or Cologne) have scored in 10 of their 12 home games, and as reported in our Team-by-Team stats guide this week, Jhon Cordoba is their top scorer…
- Corboba has 10 league goals – twice as many as the nearest contender in the squad
- He’s given 8 Anytime Scorer payouts this season. Before the break in play, the Colombian striker had scored in 6 of his last 10 Bundesliga appearances
Mainz have managed just one Clean Sheet in 12 away games so far.
Like Haaland for Dortmund, Cordoba is being linked with a big-money transfer this summer. The 27-year-old has scored a total of 10 goals in his last 13 games for Koln, and is our Stats Pick to find the net against his old club Mainz this weekend:
- Anytime Scorer – John Cordoba @ 13/8 (2.63) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/4 (2.50) 888 Sport, Unibet, 7/5 (2.40) Bet365, 11/8 (2.38) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. This week’s Stats Picks are:
RB Leipzig v Freiburg & Union Berlin v Bayern Munich:
- ACCA – Double: Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/4
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke:
- Anytime Scorer – Erling Braut Haaland @ 5/6
FC Koln v Mainz 05:
- Anytime Scoer – John Cordoba @ 13/8
That’s all from me for today. Remember, every game is live on the BT Sport channels. We’ll be covering every round of Bundesliga fixtures, and we’ll have lots more stats to look at as the new form settles in.
And don’t forget, your members-only website is fully loaded with Head-2-Head stats comparisons for all nine of this weekend’s Bundesliga games:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
I’ll be back next week with much more on the German football. Enjoy the first weekend back…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
