Play your cards right in the Premier League...
Wednesday 17th June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
- Aston Villa v Sheff Utd…
- Man City v Arsenal…
Play your cards right in the Premier League…
The big day is finally here.
At one time, it was hard to see a date when the 2019/20 season would be back. But here we are, with the Premier League ready to kick off again, behind closed doors. The action starts from 6pm on Sky Sports…
Aston Villa v Sheff Utd is the first game back – that’s sure to be a pub quiz question in years to come. That game is swiftly followed by Man City v Arsenal at 8.15pm.
See below for our take on the stats and markets for tonight’s games. We’re focusing on three attractive prices.
- There are also fixtures in the Bundesliga and La Liga this evening. As ever, you can view all our League & Team Stats pages for those divisions, and Head-2-Head comparisons for every game, by logging-in to your members-only Across the Leagues website
Before we get started with tonight’s Premier League matches, here are a handful of eye-catching stats from the season so far. These are not the kind of thing you hear too much about in the mainstream media – but they’re right up our street, as they can lead to some decent bets…
5 surprising standout stats…
Using the unique betting stats on our site, we’ve spotted 5 trends to watch out for. Chances are, a lot of bettors out there won’t know about these…
Give yourself a bit of an edge by taking note of these hidden gems:
- Tottenham have kept just 4 Clean Sheets in 29 games this season. That’s not very Jose Mourinho-like, is it? The Special One’s Spurs side have the joint-worst record in the Premier League for keeping Clean Sheets. That lowly 14% strike-rate puts 8th-in-the-league Tottenham level with relegation-zone Bournemouth for that poor defensive stat
- Sheffield United have won the Most Corners in 13 of their 15 home games. The Blades have been a surprise package this season, in more ways than one. As well as being 7th in the Premier League and also into the FA Cup quarter finals, Chris Wilder’s boys have an 87% home record for Most Corners bets that’s only bettered by reigning league champions Man City (92%). Most weeks, you’re going to get greater odds on Sheff Utd for that bet than you are for Pep Guardiola’s side
- Manchester United are in 1st place for Over 3.5 Cards bets – but in last place for Most Cards. Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have paid out in 69% of Man Utd games, including an unrivalled 12 out of 14 on the road (86%). However, the Red Devils themselves are not committing most of those fouls… United are actually the joint-best-behaved team in the Premier League when it comes to getting the Most Cards. Delivering on that bet in just 6 of their 29 games overall (21%)
- Chris Wood is ranked No.1 for First Goalscorer bets. The Burnley forward has got 11 league goals so far this season, and 7 of them have paid out in the First Goalscorer market. That’s a higher number of first-scorer payouts than big names like Mo Salah (3) and Harry Kane (3) – and any other player in the Premier League, for that matter. Wood is one to look out for. He’s due back from injury soon, and likely to be available at larger odds than the household names. Also worth knowing: 5 of Wood’s 11 goals have been from headers
- Danny Ings is joint-1st for Anytime Scorer payouts. The Southampton striker has been having the season of his life, bagging a total of 15 goals. All but one of those have come in separate games, meaning Ings has produced 14 Anytime Scorer payouts. That strike-rate puts the Saints man level with Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and ahead of everyone else
Our website carries stats for all those Premier League bet categories – Goals, Clean Sheets, Match Results, Cards, Corners, Scorers and more.
Plus, you’re getting daily email updates & analysis this week and beyond. We’ll be focusing on identifying the best value prices and eye-catching opportunities from a variety of betting markets – wherever our stats, research and lines of enquiry take us…
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
Without further ado, let’s get into the numbers and prices for today, with a look at the first Premier League games to be played since March.
Aston Villa v Sheffield United
Premier League
6pm – Sky Sports
Contrasting fortunes with these two promoted sides this season. Before play was stopped, Villa were on a 4-game losing streak. The Midlands club sit second-bottom of the Premier League.
Sheff Utd on the other hand, sit pretty in 7th, with Europe on their minds, and still in the FA Cup, too. The Blades had won 3 out of 4 before the break.
An Away Win is the Match Result favourite tonight, with Sheff Utd at 7/5 (2.40) to complete the season double over Villa. The price for us is 3/1 (4.00) for the Sheffield side To Win to Nil…
Key stats:
- 9 of Sheff Utd’s 11 league wins have been To Nil
- 6 of those 11 wins have paid out on the 1-0 Correct Score
Only the Top 2 of Liverpool and Man City have posted more Wins to Nil than Chris Wilder’s impressive outfit this season. And with Wilder’s team also boasted the second-best defensive record, the Win to Nil option appeals here, against a Villa side that have conceded more goals than anyone else in the Premier League this season.
STATS PICK:
- Sheff Utd – To Win to Nil @ 16/5 (4.20) with Paddy Power , Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, Betfred, Betway, Boylesports
The second area we want to look at is the Cards & Bookings stats…
As ever, there are a number of players on the radar here. And the Head-2-Head tool on our site can help us out.
For Sheff Utd, John Fleck is averaging a Yellow Card every 3.57 Premier League games this season (7 from 25 appearances). In the 5 games before the league was suspended, Fleck had got two bookings, then none in three games…
If the averages are anything to go by, then the Blades midfielder will be getting another yellow to his name in one of the first games back. Fleck is priced at around 5/2 (3.50) to pick up a card this evening.
With 5 Yellows from 13 away league appearances, defender George Baldock is also up there on the list of card candidates for the visitors. He’s alongside teammate Fleck as a 5/2 market leader in the To Be Shown a Card betting.
However, the home team gets our attention here. And with the relegation battle and first-game-back setting, Villa’s talisman (and top scorer), Jack Grealish could be the man to watch tonight.
Grealish has got 7 league goals. He’s also got 7 bookings – a disciplinary stat that puts him on a par with any other player on the pitch tonight. The socks-rolled-down, tackles & dribbles playmaker is a firm fan favourite, and wears the badge with pride. One angle tonight is that Grealish comes out a bit too keen, and gets himself in the book again…
At odds of 12/1 and 11/1, the Villa captain is a nice price for the First Card.
STATS PICK:
- First Player Booking – Jack Grealish @ 12/1 (13.00) with Bet365, 11/1 (12.00) Skybet, Betfred, 10/1 (11.00) William Hill, BetVictor, Betway
Manchester City v Arsenal
Premier League
8.15pm – Sky Sports
Man City have beaten Arsenal 6 times in a row in all competitions. City are odds-on for the Home Win tonight, at just 1/3 (1.33).
In the Corners stats on our website, Man City are ranked No.1 in the Premier League for Most Corners bets, with an almighty 92% home record for that bet (12 out of 13 games).
That option is also short odds-on, at just 1/14 (1.07). That’s a £10 stake to win you 70 pence.
Our route to more palatable odds for corner-winning teams is usually the Corner Handicap market. For tonight’s game, City are 11/10 (2.10) to beat a -5 Corner Handicap.
That’s a big ask – requiring them to win 6+ corners more than Arsenal. And while Pep Guardiola’s side are capable of some huge corners scores, they had only covered that -5 Handicap in one out of 5 home Premier League games before the break.
The enthusiastic first-game-back Cards angle is in our thoughts for this game, too…
Key stat:
- Granit Xhaka has got 4 yellows in his last 6 appearances v Man City
Granit Xhaka was booked in 5 out of 10 games in all comps before the halt in play (3 out of 6 in the league)
The Arsenal midfielder has committed 46 Fouls in the Premier League this season. Out of all the players in the league, only Watford’s Etienne Capoue has got more (47) – and he’s made two more appearances than the Arsenal man.
Xhaka is the kind of player who will have the adrenaline going, occasionally gets the red mist, and could fly in early with an overly aggressive or mistimed tackle…
He’s 17/10 (2.70) to get a card tonight. The Swiss international stands out at juicier prices to be the first name in referee Anthony Taylor’s book.
These First Booking picks are speculative, of course. But the rewards are there in the prices – and the stats and situation make them well worth our attention this evening.
STATS PICK:
- First Player Booking – Granit Xhaka @ 7/1 (8.00) with Betfair Sportsbook , 13/2 (7.50) Bet365, 6/1 (7.00) Skybet, Betfred, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betway
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Aston Villa v Sheffield United
- Sheff Utd – To Win to Nil @ 16/5 (4.20) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, Betfred, Betway, Boylesports
- First Player Booking – Jack Grealish @ 12/1 (13.00) with Bet365, 11/1 (12.00) Skybet, Betfred, 10/1 (11.00) William Hill, BetVictor, Betway
Manchester City v Arsenal
- First Player Booking – Granit Xhaka @ 7/1 (8.00) with Betfair Sportsbook, 13/2 (7.50) Bet365, 6/1 (7.00) Skybet, Betfred, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betway
I’ll be back tomorrow with more stats, and more on the daily fixture list across Europe.
As well as a first full round of Premier League games coming up at the weekend, we also have the return of both the Championship and Italy’s Serie A to prepare for. It’s all happening.
Enjoy the first games back tonight…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
