Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen tonight...
Monday 18th May 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- German Bundesliga…
- Match preview for tonight’s game…
- Stats Picks…
Stats Picks & Analysis…
The German Bundesliga returned at the weekend, and although the empty stadiums and face masks make it all seem a bit surreal, it was nevertheless good to have some top-flight football back.
The story so far…
Erling Braut Haaland showed his class, with the teenager opening the scoring for Borussia Dortmund in their 4-0 win over Schalke.
Our other scorer pick Jhon Cordoba put in a good shift up front for Koln, put didn’t get on the score-sheet, despite a couple of close calls from goalmouth scrambles. That game ended Koln 2 Mainz 2.
So far this season well over 60% of Bundesliga games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. So far on the matchday 26 fixture list, 5 of the 8 games have gone Over that line, with one match still to come this evening (see below).
Our weekend Over 2.5 Goals picks were one strike each off going into that category, with Bayern Munich winning 2-0 at Union Berlin, and RB Leipzig drawing 1-1 v Freiburg. The away team thought they’d snatched a surprise 2-1 win, but their injury time goal claim was ruled out after a VAR review.
Three of the Top 4 teams in the Bundesliga won at the weekend, with Leipzig the only exception. The other three all covered a -1 Match Handicap (winning by 2+ goals). With Borussia Monchengladbach winning 3-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt, along with those 4-0 and 2-0 victories for Dortmund and Bayern respectively.
The 5th place side are odds-on favourites to win on the road in this evening’s game…
BUNDESLIGA – STATS PICKS
Werder Bremen v Bayern Leverkusen tonight…
7.30pm – BT Sport
Before the halt in play in March, Werder Bremen had lost 11 of their last 15 games, including 6 home defeats in a row going right back to November. Bayer Leverkusen on the other hand had won 10 out of 15, including 3 of their last 5 away.
With Bremen second-bottom of the table and in big relegation trouble, while Leverkusen are 5th and pushing for Champions League qualification, it’s no surprise that the bookies have the Away Win as the favourite this evening. Leverkusen are 8/11 (1.73) and 4/6 (1.67) in general.
Using the stats to look at some other options, higher odds can be achieved in alternative markets such as:
- -1 Match Handicap. Bremen have been beaten by a 2+ goals margin in each of their last 4 home games – and 6 of their last 8 Bundesliga defeats overall have gone that way. Leverkusen have won a total of 9 away wins in all competitions this season, and 7 of them have landed the -1 Match Handicap. That option is 7/4+ (2.75+) tonight
- Half Time/ Full Time. Bremen may have lost each of their last 6 home league games, but 4 of the last 5 of those were 0-0 at Half Time. Five of Leverkusen’s last 6 leagues games have been all-square at Half Time. HT/ FT – Draw/ Leverkusen is a top price 4/1 (5.00) and 7/2 (4.50) in general
- First & Anytime Goalscorer. Leverkusen midfielder Kai Havertz has scored 10 times in all comps this season, and 6 of those strikes came away from home. Havertz landed Anytime Scorer bets in 5 of 8 games before play was halted, giving him more prolific ‘recent’ scoring form than Leverkusen’s other leading scorers this season, Kevin Volland and Lucas Alario. Havertz is a best price 6/4 (2.50) to score Anytime in today’s game, and 5/1 (6.00) and 9/2 (5.50) to be the First Goalscorer
Havertz is Leverkusen’s chief penalty taker, bagging two from the spot so far this season. There were penalties scored in 3 of the 8 Bundesliga games played at the weekend, with 2 of them the source of the First Goal…
Before the football was suspended, Havertz had landed First Goalscorer payouts in each of this last two appearances.
The two options that stand out most for us here are Leverkusen -1 Match Handicap, which appeals more than the odds-on price for the standard Away Win, and is backed up by the stats. And Havertz to open the scoring is the pick of the more speculative prices…
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen
- Leverkusen -1 Match Handicap @ 2/1 (3.00) with Unibet, 888 Sport, 15/8 (2.88) BetVictor, 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
- First Goalscorer – Kai Havertz @ 5/1 (6.00) with Unibet, 888 Sport, 9/2 (5.50) Bet365, Boylesports, Betway
Remember you can view a full home v away Head-2-Head for tonight’s game on your members-only website:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
I’ll be back on Wednesday with a stats update, and a look ahead to the upcoming second weekend of Bundesliga action…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
