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Stats Picks - including Tottenham v RB Leipzig tonight...

Wednesday 19th February 2020

In your Across the Leagues email today:

  • Midweek Stats Picks…
  • Champions League tonight…
  • Scorer stats...

Stats Picks…

The Champions League saw two home wins last night. Atletico Madrid beat holders Liverpool, 1-0. And Borussia Dortmund won 2-1 against PSG.

Those games produced two out of two winners for our Stats Picks.

Liverpool got two Yellow Cards to Atletico’s one (Booking Points score = 10-20). With the Reds landing Most Booking Points bets for the 3rd time in 4 away games in this season’s competition.

Dortmund’s 19-year-old striker justified the hype once again. Erling Braut Haaland scored the first & last goals of the game to help his side to a 2-1 victory. In doing so, the Norwegian teenager became the youngest player ever to reach 10 Champions League goals.

Haaland has now landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 out of 7 games since signing for Dortmund in January.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

The Last 16 continues with two more 1st Leg ties this evening...

Atalanta v Valencia

Tottenham v RB Leipzig

All kick offs 8pm, live on BT Sport

Here are our Stats Picks:

Atalanta v Valencia

TONIGHT 8pm

Anytime Scorer: Duvan Zapata

Atalanta’s stats point to Goals. The Italian side are in 1st place on our Serie A standings for Over 2.5 Goals (92% home record), and ranked 2nd for Both Teams to Score payouts (75% at home). They are also the top-scoring team in Serie A this season overall.

However, in the Champions League, Atalanta don’t actually play their ‘home’ games in their own stadium. A failure to meet up to UEFA’s standards means they play instead at the San Siro in Milan…

At that venue, so far, 2 of Atalanta’s 3 ‘home’ Champions League games have ended up going Under 2.5 Goals. With the scores: 1-2, 1-1 and 2-0.

In comparison, each of their last 7 Serie A games at their own Bergamo ground have gone Over 2.5 Goals, with a couple of 5-0 wins in there, along with a 3-2 and a 1-3.

Valencia’s away record in Spain’s La Liga is 75% for Both Teams to Score (3rd in the division for that bet). With 7 of their 11 away league games going Over 2.5 Goals (64%).

But in the Champions League, all 3 of Valencia’s away trips during the Group stage went Under 2.5 Goals: 0-1, 1-1 and 0-1.

It’s swings & roundabouts on the Under/ Over and Both Teams to Score stats, then. But one thing that’s not in doubt is the level of goal-scoring threat in the Atalanta attack…

Luis Muriel (forward) and Josip Ilicic (midfielder) are the top scorers in the squad this season.

But in terms of a goal-per-games-played ratio, the Duvan Zapata is the top man. Injury kept the striker out of action in the autumn. But the Colombian is back now, starting each of Atalanta’s last 6 league games.

Zapata has got one goal from two Champions League appearances this season. Overall, he’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in 8 out of 16 appearances in all competitions.

With this being a huge night for Atalanta - their first ever Champions League Knockout tie - their most direct attacker is the one to follow in the Scorer markets.

  • Anytime Scorer: Duvan Zapata @ 7/5 (2.40) with Sportingbet, 5/4 (2.25) Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, BetVictor

Tottenham v RB Leipzig

TONIGHT 8pm

Anytime Scorer: Timo Werner

There’s evidence for a high-scoring encounter here, too. All 6 of Tottenham’s Group games went Over 2.5 Goals and also Over 3.5 Goals. RB Leipzig scored 2+ goals in 5 of their 6 Group matches.

But sticking with the Scorers theme, Tottenham are without their two main men now…

Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son are both out injured. Midfielders Dele Alli and Lucas Moura are the next two highest scorers in the Spurs squad.

Leipzig’s top scorer is Timo Werner. The speedy 23-year-old German is 2nd in the Bundesliga chart this season, with 20 goals from 22 appearances.

In the Champions League Group stage, Werner landed Anytime Scorer bets in 2 out of 3 away games. In his young Champions League career to date, Timo has found the net in 4 out of 6 away outings overall…

  • Anytime Scorer: Timo Werner @ 6/5 (2.20) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/10 (2.10) Betfred, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor

Stats Picks Summary

See above for full details. Today’s Stats Picks are:

  • Atalanta v Valencia - Anytime Scorer: Duvan Zapata @ 7/5
  • Tottenham v RB Leipzig - Anytime Scorer: Timo Werner @ 6/5

I’ll be back on Friday with your Stats Picks for the weekend games.

Best wishes,

Shaun Humphris

Shaun Humphris

Across the Leagues

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