Premier League corners, Lionel Messi - and a 35/1 shot...
Friday 19th June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Five picks for the weekend…
- Including Lionel Messi this evening…
- And a 35/1 shot…
Weekend Preview – Stats Picks & Analysis…
There are some 50-odd fixtures on our schedule this weekend.
Every one of those games across the Premier League, Championship, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A has a Head-2-Head stats comparison available to view right now on your Across the Leagues website.
With the first full round in the Premier League starting this evening, plus the return of the Championship and Italy’s Serie A this weekend, we have a wealth of stats, markets and opportunities to consider.
Let’s get into our weekend preview…
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
We’re kicking off in Spain, with the league leaders in action tonight…
Sevilla v Barcelona
Spain – La Liga
TONIGHT 9pm, La Liga TV
This is 3rd v 1st in the table. After hitting the ground running with 2 wins out of 2 since the restart, Barcelona are looking to keep up the momentum and build on their 2-point lead over Real Madrid at the top of La Liga…
Those wins were 2-0 and 4-0, and the league’s top scorer Lionel Messi got the last goal in both games, in the 90th and 69th minutes, respectively. That last-goal point is a noteworthy one for Messi:
- Messi has landed Last Goalscorer bets in 7 of his last 10 scoring appearances in all competitions
A look at the goal times shows Leo is a danger, right until the final whistle. With goal times of: 69, 90, 81, 87, 89, 76, 51, 69, 83, 86 mins across those 10 games.
With 6 of those strikes coming in the last 10 minutes of play, it’s no surprise that when we consult the La Liga Scorer tables on our website, Messi is ranked joint-1st for Last Goalscorer bets, with 7 for the season.
When we looked at Messi earlier in the week, he was odds-on at just 8/15 (1.53) to score Anytime against Leganes. For this evening’s trip to Sevilla, he’s Evens (2.00) in general. But with that late-goal trend in mind, taking the bigger price for the Last Goalscorer option might prove the best way to make a profit from the Argentinean star…
STATS PICK:
- Last Goalscorer – Lionel Messi @ 18/5 (4.60) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/3 (4.33) Betway, 16/5 (4.20) Paddy Power, 3/1 (4.00) in general
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Augsburg
Germany – Bundesliga
Saturday 2.30pm, BT Sport
This is a crunch game in the relegation battle. A win would guarantee Augsburg stay up, while Dusseldorf are in the drop-zone and desperate to keep their survival hopes alive.
Cometh the hour, cometh the man, and Dusseldorf captain Rouwen Hennings is the one to look out for here…
Hennings has got 14 Bundesliga goals this season, with only star names Robert Lewandowski, Timo Werner and Jadon Sancho ahead of him. That’s some going, considering that trio all play for clubs in the Top 3 in the table.
The 32-year-old German striker is just behind those three in our Anytime Scorer standings, too. And when it comes to the First Goalscorer market, Hennings is 2nd only to Lewandowski, with 8 first-goal payouts to his name for Dusseldorf in the league this season.
He's scored in 2 of his last 4 appearances, and his team might need him to deliver something for them again this weekend…
STATS PICK:
- First Goalscorer – Rouwen Hennings @ 4/1 (5.00) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 15/4 (4.75) Bet365, 10/3 (4.33) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, 3/1 (4.00) in general
Watford v Leicester
Premier League
Saturday 12.30pm, BT Sport
We’re off to the Premier League, where two away teams stand out in the Most Corners stats…
First up, Leicester who have won the Most Corners in 7 of their last 10 away league games, including 4 out of 5 on the road before the season went on hold. The Foxes have a 71% away record for the season for this bet (10 out of 14 games).
Opponents Watford haven’t won the Most Corners in any of their 6 home games v Top 8 teams this season. Leicester are 3rd in the Premier League…
STATS PICK:
- Most Corners – Leicester @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365, Skybet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 8/11+ (1.73+) William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway. Note: some bookies call this the ‘Corners Match Bet’ or ‘Full Time Corners Win’
West Ham v Wolves
Premier League
Saturday 5.30pm, Sky Sports
A similar match-up here, with the away team boasting the stronger corner-winning stats…
West Ham have been out-cornered in 4 of their last 6 at home v Top Half sides.
Wolves have a 79% away record for Most Corners bets, which the table on our site shows is the joint-highest strike-rate on the road (level with Chelsea).
Wolves have landed this bet in a remarkable 18 of their last 19 Premier League games, including 10 in a row on their travels…
STATS PICK:
- Most Corners – Wolves @ 3/4 (1.75) with Boylesports, 8/11 (1.73) Skybet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 7/10 (1.70) BetVictor, William Hill. Note: some bookies call this the ‘Corners Match Bet’ or ‘Full Time Corners Win’
Weekend treble at 35/1…
Last but not least, we’re referring to the Goals, Both Teams to Score and Match Result stats on our website to inform our selections for an eye-catching Treble in the Win & Both Teams to Score markets…
This option can be a good route to take when teams fit the bill for both the win, and for high-scoring encounters. With the trio rolling up to a large price, these three stand out in that market this weekend:
QPR to Win & Both Teams to Score v Barnsley – QPR are the No.1 team in the Championship for Both Teams to Score bets, and the ‘Win & BTTS’ option had come home in 4 of their last 5 victories before the break. Barnsley are bottom of the league. There were 8 goals in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
Eintracht Frankfurt to Win & Both Teams to Score at FC Koln – these sides are joint-top of the Bundesliga for games with goals at both ends (66%), and 3 of Frankfurt’s last 4 wins have gone the way of the Win & BTTS odds. Koln are on a 9-game run for Both Teams to Score, and each of their last 7 defeats have seen them get on the score-sheet. Those are strong stats.
Atalanta to Win & Both Teams to Score v Sassuolo. Talking of strong stats, the goals form for Atalanta is the best in Serie A, with the team 4th in the league table and chasing Champions League qualification ranked 1st in the Italian top-flight for Goals Scored, Over 2.5 Goals results and 2nd for Both Teams to Score. In the reverse fixture, Atalanta won 4-1 at mid-table Sassuolo.
STATS PICK:
- Treble – Win & Both Teams to Score: QPR, Eintracht Frankfurt & Atalanta @ 35/1 (36.00) with Betway, 34/1 (35.00) Bet365, 33/1 (34.00) Boylesports, 30/1+ (31.00+) in general
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Sevilla v Barcelona:
- Last Goalscorer – Lionel Messi @ 18/5 (4.60) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/3 (4.33) Betway, 16/5 (4.20) Paddy Power, 3/1 (4.00) in general
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Augsburg:
- First Goalscorer – Rouwen Hennings @ 4/1 (5.00) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 15/4 (4.75) Bet365, 10/3 (4.33) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, 3/1 (4.00) in general
Watford v Leicester:
- Most Corners – Leicester @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365, Skybet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 8/11+ (1.73+) William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway. Note: some bookies call this the ‘Corners Match Bet’ or ‘Full Time Corners Win’
West Ham v Wolves:
- Most Corners – Wolves @ 3/4 (1.75) with Boylesports, 8/11 (1.73) Skybet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 7/10 (1.70) BetVictor, William Hill. Note: some bookies call this the ‘Corners Match Bet’ or ‘Full Time Corners Win’
Treble:
QPR v Barnsley
FC Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt
Atalanta v Sassuolo
- Treble – Win & Both Teams to Score: QPR, Eintracht Frankfurt & Atalanta @ 35/1 (36.00) with Betway, 34/1 (35.00) Bet365, 33/1 (34.00) Boylesports, 30/1+ (31.00+) in general
We’ll be back on Monday, with the fixtures continuing in England and across Europe…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
