Lyon v Bayern Munich - looking for an early goal...
Wednesday 19th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Champions League semi final…
- Lyon v Bayern Munich…
- Analysis & advice…
Looking for an early goal tonight…
After PSG were a strong 3-0 winner over RB Leipzig last night, a box office Champions League final between PSG & Bayern Munich is now very short odds-on…
Bayern are just 1/10 (1.1) at best To Qualify for the final. The German giants have won 19 games in a row in all competitions, and are on a 28-game unbeaten run.
The bookies make Bayern no bigger than 1/4 (1.25) to record victory number 20 this evening. For the upset hunters, Lyon at 12/1 to win the match, and 7/1 To Qualify.
Lyon v Bayern Munich
Eleven games in to this new UEFA Final Eight knockout format, and we’ve still only seen one tie go to extra time (and that was in the Europa League). None have gone to penalties.
With Bayern Munich’s dominance in the 90-minute markets, the Method of Victory options for extra time or pens are at larger odds than usual today. For example, Bet365 have Bayern to win on penalties at 28/1, with Lyon at 33/1.
Of course, those prices are that size for a reason. The German champions are overwhelming favourites to win in normal time, and to win well…
German dominance…
- 13 of the victories in Bayern’s 19-game winning streak have been by more than one goal, covering a -1 Match Handicap
That winning-margin stat includes each of Munich’s last five games. With scores of: 8-2, 4-1, 4-2, 4-0, 3-1.
In the Match Handicap markets, Bayern are 8/13 (1.62) to win by more than one goal and beat a -1 Handicap. And a top-price 8/5 (2.6) to beat the -2 Handicap for what would be a third straight game.
- In the Champions League this season, Hans Flick’s side have won 9 out of 9 games, and 6 of those wins have covered a -2 Match Handicap
Those European results include some absolutely thumping score-lines against some very respectable teams. Most recently of course, 8-2 against Barcelona. As well as 3-0 (away) and 4-1 (home) v Chelsea. And a huge 7-2 win at Tottenham.
One glimmer for Lyon is that this Munich team don’t always keep it completely tight at the back…
- Bayern have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 9 games
That stat means Bayern to Win & Both Teams to Score has paid out seven times out of nine. That option is a 6/4 (2.5) shot this evening, which to be honest is a bit bigger than I was expecting, and a lot better than 1/4 for the standard Match Win.
- Since the Champions League resumed this month, all 9 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. Over 2.5 is priced at 2/5 (1.4) tonight
Crazy Correct Scores…
If it’s a big price you’re after, then that list of Bayern score-lines suggests that a high or even crazy Correct Score is a fair possibility…
After last week’s thrashing of Barcelona, a repeat of the bizarre 8-2 score is 450/1. That’s probably a little too far-fetched…
Looking at the results for all Bayern matches, in a season where they’ve won 41 out of 50 games in all comps. We can narrow the Correct Score options down to some extent by noting that 20 of those 41 wins have started with a 3 or a 4. And you’ll get the bigger prices for the outcomes starting with a 4…
That includes three of the four most recent outings, winning 4-1, 4-2 and 4-0.
The best prices for those scores tonight:
4-0 Bayern is 12/1 (BetVictor)
4-1 Bayern is 15/1 (BetVictor)
4-2 Bayern is 40/1 (Skybet)
We also have to be careful not to get too carried away with a Bayern-centric approach here…
Lyon require respect, too. They’ve reached the Champions League semi finals, were unbeaten over two matches against fellow semi finalists RB Leipzig in the group stage, and knocked out Man City 3-1 in the quarter finals. Before the City game, Lyon had taken out Italian champions Juventus on aggregate over two legs.
However, Lyon’s 5-1 defeat to PSG in the French Cup in March shows that when a world-class outfit hit top gear, they can rack up goals against anyone.
High line on the Corners…
Last time out against Barcelona, we had a successful -2 Corner Handicap pick on Bayern Munich (corners score 9-6).
Today, however, the bookies have set the bar twice as high, with a -4 Corner Handicap. The Germans have covered that higher line in just three of their last 10 games in all comps.
A convincing case for an early goal….
- In 5 of their 9 Champions League games this season, Bayern have scored within the first 15 minutes
In the Bundesliga 2019/20, the average Time of First Goal in Bayern home games was 23 mins, with Before 27th Minute bets paying out in 76% of games. In away games, the average time was 22 mins, with a 71% strike-rate for Before 27th Minute bets.
Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this season:
Fast starters…
In recent weeks, Bayern have been very fast starters…
8-2 win v Barcelona: First Goal 4 mins (Thomas Muller)
4-1 win v Chelsea: First Goal 10 mins (Robert Lewandowski, pen)
4-2 win v Bayer Leverkusen: First Goal 16 mins (David Alaba)
4-0 win v Wolfsburg: First Goals 4 mins (Kingsley Coman)
3-1 win v Freiburg: First Goal 15 mins (Joshua Kimmich)
Overall:
- 9 of Bayern’s last 10 games have paid out on the First Goal in the 27th Minute or Before. With 8 of those 10 seeing the First Goal (for either team) within the first 18 mins
Those are some very fast numbers. I remember Barcelona used to post similar First Goal figures in their heyday a few years back. Going after an early goal is one way to sniff out an attractive price when there’s a dominant team involved.
Underdogs Lyon also bring some early-goal form here:
- The First Goal has been scored before the 25th minute in 6 of Lyon’s 9 Champions League games. Before 13 mins on 5 occasions, and before 10 mins in 3 out of 9 games
From the standard, fixed odds firms, Boylesports will give you 20/21 (1.95) for the Time of First Goal to be 23rd Min or Before.
Elsewhere, you can get 5/2 (3.5) for 1-10 mins.
There’s certainly a decent case for an early strike this evening…
Spread potential…
Spread betting isn’t for everyone, but if we do see a fast goal tonight, the spread options would produce the biggest profits.
For example, at SpreadEx, you can Sell (bet low) on the 1st Match Goal at 28 minutes. In that example, if the first goal came on 10 minutes, you’d win 18 x your nominated stake (the difference between 28 and 10).
- Note: the spread-bet warning is that if things go the other way, you can lose way more than you would with a normal fixed-odds bet. In this instance, if you made the Sell at 28 minutes and the first goal didn’t come until the 88th minute, then you’d lose 60 x your stake (the difference between 28 and 88). Beware of the risks
SpreadEx also have a 1st Bayern Goal market, with the Sell available at 34 minutes. The goal time figures in today’s analysis suggest the Germans are well capable of scoring much earlier than that. But there are never any guarantees. All I can say is, it’s up to you, but tread carefully.
Sporting Index also offer these spread markets. With the 1st Match Goal available to Sell at 27.5 mins. And 1st Bayern Munich Goal at 32.5 mins.
With the First Goalscorer betting stacked with Bayern players such as Robert Lewandowski at just 15/8 (2.88), Serge Gnabry at 4/1 and Thomas Muller at 5/1. The approach I’m taking is for an early goal to come from any player on the pitch. With the 0-10 minutes option my recommendation of the day.
Today’s pick
Champions League
Lyon v Bayern Munich
8pm, BT Sport
- Time of First Goal : 1-10 minutes @ 13/5 (3.6) with SpreadEx (fixed odds), 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet
Other ‘First Goal Time’ options are also available (such as 0-15 mins), with bookies including William Hill, Betway and Marathonbet.
I’ll be back tomorrow with our plan of action for the ante post markets for the new 2020/21 season.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
