Previews & Picks for the Finals...
Friday 21st August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Europa League & Champions League Finals…
- Sevilla v Inter Milan tonight…
- PSG v Bayern Munich on Sunday…
Previews & Picks for the Finals…
If you’ve been following my picks, then this month’s UEFA Final Eight knockout competitions have been a success. Thanks to a 25/1 Half Time/ Full Time winner on PSG v Atalanta in the Champions League quarter finals. And a 16/1 or 14/1 payout on Inter Milan & Sevilla in the Name the Finalists market for the Europa League.
But we’re not done yet. We have the two biggest matches still to come. The Europa League final is tonight. Followed by the Champions League showpiece on Sunday.
There’s lots to get through, so let’s get straight to it. Here’s my analysis for the finals…
Sevilla v Inter Milan
Europa League Final, Germany
Friday 8pm – BT Sport
Match Winner: Sevilla 12/5 (3.4), Draw 12/5 (3.4), Inter 6/5 (2.2)
To Lift the Trophy: Sevilla 5/4 (2.25), Inter 8/13 (1.62)
The Spanish side are the underdogs, but Sevilla are serial winners of this trophy, lifting the Europa League (or UEFA Cup) a record five times. Including three times in the last six seasons. The pressure is on Inter Milan, with the Italians searching for a first trophy in nine years…
I’m expecting this one to be close. Sevilla are on a 20-game unbeaten run in all competitions. Inter are unbeaten in 12, and have lost just one of their last 17.
11/1 each to win on penalties…
With just the finals to go in this month’s one-off UEFA Final Eight knockout competitions, only one of the 12 matches played across the Europa League & Champions League has gone to extra time. And none have gone to penalties…
Out of this weekend’s two finals, I make this one the more likely to go the distance.
A 1-1 draw is the 5/1 favourite in the Correct Score market. In the Method of Victory betting, Inter to Win on Penalties is 11/1 with Bet365, with Sevilla at the same price.
The top two up front…
With Sevilla’s top scorer Lucas Ocampos an injury doubt for the final, the Inter forwards are the names to look out for in front of goal.
Romelu Lukaku is 4/1 favourite to score First, with strike partner Lautaro Martinez at 5/1. Lukaku has scored in a record 10 Europa League games in a row. Martinez opened the scoring in the 5-0 semi final win over Shakhtar Donetsk.
Man of the Match mystery…
The Man of the Match market makes an appearance today. Although the bookies aren’t making it easy to determine how exactly they’re settling that award tonight…
Bet365’s rules page says that it goes by the official governing body (eg. UEFA), or the main TV broadcaster (eg. BT Sport in this case). Not much help.
Paddy Power’s market is called the ‘WhoScored’ Man of the Match, which presumably refers to the WhoScored website… but, Paddy Power’s rules page makes no mention of that, and talks about TV broadcaster announcements. So, best left alone I think.
Sevilla on the corners…
The Corners stats make a very decent case for the Spaniards:
- Sevilla have won the Most Corners in 8 out of 11 Europa League games this season
- Inter Most have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 11 games (Champions League & Europa League)
Sevilla are the No.1 team in the competition for total Corners Won, averaging 7.0 per game For, and 3.55 Against. In comparison, Inter are averaging just 4.2 per game, with 5.0 Against.
The League Stats on our Across the Leagues website show that Sevilla were ranked No.1 in La Liga in Spain this season for Most Corners payouts. In Italy, Inter were joint-6th in Serie A for that bet.
In recent weeks, Inter have won the Most Corners in just one of five games in all comps. In four of those games, their opponents landed the -1 Corner Handicap, winning 2+ corners more than Inter.
Sevilla are the stats pick here. And if the favourites Inter do score first and/ or get a lead to protect, the onus would be on Sevilla to push forward in search of a goal…
Sevilla are around 8/11 (1.73) for the Most Corners (or Corners Match Bet). With the best price 4/5 (1.8) with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. For one corner more, I prefer the odds-against prices available for the -1 Corner Handicap.
Carlos for a card…
Last but not least, the Cards & Bookings stats lead to one of the men most likely in a Sevilla shirt…
With Inter’s counter attack genuinely dangerous and pacey, spearheaded by the in-form Lukaku and Martinez, the Sevilla defensive line should be tested tonight. Central defender Diego Carlos is one to follow in the Player to be Booked market.
The Brazilian has got himself a yellow card in all three Europa League games since play resumed, against Man Utd (21st minute), Wolves (12th min) and Roma (61st min). William Hill have Diego Carlos as a top-price 11/1 to be the First Player Carded tonight.
Odds of 2/1+ for him to go in the ref’s book at any time in the game (in normal time) make the cut for me, with a standout 11/4 (3.75) available.
And in the big game on Sunday night…
PSG v Bayern Munich
Champions League Final, Portugal
Sunday 8pm – BT Sport
Match Winner: PSG 9/4 (3.25), Draw 16/5 (4.2), Bayern Evens (2.0)
To Lift the Trophy: PSG 6/4 (2.5), Bayern 4/7 (1.57)
Bayern have won 20 games in a row, and with that stat in mind, Evens for the win will appeal to many this weekend. PSG are in a first Champions League final, and will likely need some magic from star men Neymar and Kylian Mbappe…
Lewandowski the goal machine…
Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski has been writing his name in the history books again this season, finishing top scorer in the Bundesliga with a huge 34-goal tally, and out in front in the Champions League charts, too.
The Polish goal machine has scored in nine out of nine Champions League appearances this season, and in each of his last 10 games in all comps. Interestingly though, he has only landed First Goalscorer bets in two of those last 10 games.
Lewandowski is the odds-on 4/6 (1.67) favourite in the Anytime Scorer market, and the 3/1 (4.0) frontrunner to score First.
An early goal could make this a classic…
Following on from my First Goal Time research ahead of the semi final win against Lyon, Bayern continue to be fast starters:
3-0 win v Lyon: First Goal 18 mins (Serge Gnabry)
8-2 win v Barcelona: First Goal 4 mins (Thomas Muller)
4-1 win v Chelsea: First Goal 10 mins (Robert Lewandowski, pen)
4-2 win v Bayer Leverkusen: First Goal 16 mins (David Alaba)
4-0 win v Wolfsburg: First Goals 4 mins (Kingsley Coman)
3-1 win v Freiburg: First Goal 15 mins (Joshua Kimmich)
If we get an early goal on Sunday night, it could set the scene for an exciting 90 minutes of attacking football…
Betway will give you odds of 6/4 (2.5) for a goal in the first 15 minutes. If you fancy the spread betting route, it’s a case of weighing up the risk against the potential rewards:
SpreadEx have the 1st Match Goal available to Sell (bet low) at 28 minutes. In that example, if there was a goal in the 10th min, the Sell would pay 18 x stakes profit (28 minus 10 = 18). However, if the first goal didn’t come until the 78th minute, then that move would result in a loss of 50 x stakes (78 minus 28 = 50).
SpreadEx have the 1st Bayern Goal to Sell at 41 minutes. There’s a key stat I can tell you regarding that market:
- Bayern have scored their first goal before half time (45 mins) in each of their last 14 games. And before the 41st min in 12 of those matches
The goal times from recent Champions League finals suggest a fast start could be on the cards here, too…
- 4 of the last 5 Finals have seen the First Goal scored in the 20th Minute or Before. With 3 seeing the first goal within 15 mins, and 2 withing the opening 10 mins
In last season’s Champions League final, Mo Salah scored a penalty for Liverpool after just two minutes.
I’ll leave the spread betting options to your own discretion (remember, you can lose more than your original stake with those).
The fixed odds option & price that I like is the ‘1-10 Minutes’ Time of First Goal bracket, at 5/2 (3.50).
The corner kings…
Our Champions League Historical Stats show Bayern Munich have been the top team for Most Corners bets over the last seven seasons…
Bayern are ranked No.1. Winning the Most Corners in 65 out of 78 Champions League games prior to the start of 2019/20. And maintaining that 83% strike-rate with eight out of 10 corner victories so far in this season’s competition.
The German champions have won the Most Corners in 20 of their last 22 outings in all competitions. Bossing the corners tally by enough to land a -2 Corner Handicap in 14 of those matches (winning 3+ corners more than opponents).
- Bayern Munich are the top corner-kick winners in the Champions League this season. With a total of 86 Corners Won, at an average of 8.6 per game
In comparison, PSG have won the Most Corners in five of their 10 Champions League games this season. The Paris club were out-cornered in both the semi final and quarter final, v RB Leipzig and Atalanta.
For the competition as a whole, PSG have won exactly half as many corners as Bayern (43 v 86). With the French side averaging 4.3 Corners For per game.
Bayern -2 Corner Handicap is the stat pick here. You don’t get many chances to back the German champs on that handicap at odds-against prices.
Man of the Match longshot…
As with the Europa League final, the Man of the Match market is a confusing one. There is an official UEFA award for this, selected by a committee featuring former players. In the semi finals, it went to Angel Di Maria for PSG, and Serge Gnabry for Bayern. Both men scored in those games.
For Sunday’s final, Bet365 have Lewandowski as the 7/2 (4.5) favourite, followed by Neyman and Mbappe at 5/1 each. Gnabry is 7/1, with Di Maria at 20/1 outsider. Bayern’s teenage wingback Alphonso Davies could be one to look out for as a 20/1 longshot, too.
Today’s picks
Sevilla v Inter Milan:
- Sevilla -1 Corner Handicap @ 6/5 (2.2) with Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 23/20 (2.15) Betway, BetVictor, 11/10 (2.1) Skybet
- Player to be Booked: Diego Carlos @ 11/4 (3.75) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, Boylesports, 21/10 (3.1) William Hill, Skybet, Betway
PSG v Bayern Munich:
- Bayern -2 Corner Handicap @ 5/4 (2.25) with Betway, 6/5 (2.2) Bet365, 23/20 (2.15) BetVictor, 21/20 (2.05) William Hill, Evens (2.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet
- Time of First Goal: 1-10 Minutes @ 5/2 (3.5) with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, SpreadEx, 9/4 (3.25) Skybet
Enjoy the finals this weekend. I’ll be back next week, when we’ll be starting work on our pre-season picks for 2020/21.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
