Bundesliga Preview and 3 Stats Picks...

Friday 22nd May 2020

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Preview…
• German Bundesliga…
• Stats Picks & Analysis…

Stats Picks & Analysis…

The German football continues behind closed doors this weekend. There’s a full set of 9 games in the Bundesliga, with every match live on the BT Sport channels.

The big one at the top end of the table is Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen. See below for our take on that game, guided by the stats and prices.

Worth knowing…

The second division is also in action in Germany. Dresden have got players testing positive for coronavirus, so their fixtures are postponed for a couple of weeks. The other teams in Bundesliga II got underway last weekend though, and this stat could be worth looking out for…

• There were Under 10.5 Total Corners in 7 of the 8 games played in Bundesliga II last weekend

The only game that went ‘Over’ that betting line was St Pauli at home – they have the highest average in the division, so no surprise there. But even still, there were only 11 corners in St Pauli’s 1-0 win over Nuremberg, so only one over the Over 10.5 Corners line.

• In comparison, in the previous fixtures, ‘pre-lockdown’ in March, 6 out of 9 Bundesliga II games went Under 10.5 Corners

Are last week’s low corner totals down to the empty stadiums, no fans and a lack of pace in the games? And/ or tired legs with players perhaps not yet at full match fitness in the second division? I’m not going to pretend to know. But it would be a trend worth keeping an eye on.

For this weekend’s games in Bundesliga II, bookies including Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook have Total Corners markets up. If last week’s stats are anything to go by, then the Under 11 Corners or Under 10.5 Corners options are the ones to look out for….

• For example, leaving out St Pauli’s game this weekend, a 7-fold acca on the other Bundesliga II games to all go Under 10.5 Corners comes out as a 45/1 shot with BetVictor. Multiples and combos involving those games might also be worth considering. We’ll keep an eye on trends like that in the weeks to come

Back to the top tier now…

German goal machines…

So far this season well over 60% of all Bundesliga games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. That pattern continued last weekend with 6 of the 9 behind-closed-doors games generating 3+ Total Goals (67%).

As reported in our stats update email on Wednesday, teams with notable goals streaks include Monchengladbach with 8 payouts in a row for Both Teams to Score.

And Borussia Dortmund with Over 2.5 Goals in 15 of their last 17 league games…

Dortmund are away to Wolfsburg on Saturday afternoon. That game is a mis-match in terms of the Under/ Over 2.5 Goals tables on the Bundesliga League Stats pages on our website. With Wolfsburg ranked No.1 for Under 2.5 Goals, but Dortmund in 1st place for the Over bet.

With that in mind, odds-on prices of 8/13 (1.62) for Over 2.5 Goals don’t appeal much. There will be many more opportunities ahead to try and profit from Dortmund’s high-goals record.

That M’gladbach stat is worth pursuing this weekend, though…

STATS PICKS

Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen

Saturday 2.30pm

This should be a good one to watch on TV on Saturday afternoon. Both clubs are having impressive seasons in the Bundesliga – Borussia Monchengladbach are 3rd in the league and Bayer Leverkusen are 5th…

M’gladbach have won 3 of their last 4 games. Leverkusen have won 5 out of 6. Both sides returned to action with strong away wins against bottom-half opponents last weekend, 1-3 and 1-4 respectively.

Marco Rose’s side boast the same home record as champions & leaders Bayern Munich this season, W9 D2 L2. And as highlighted in our team-by-team stats prep before the Bundesliga returned last week, 8 of Monchengladbach’s 9 home wins have paid out in the Win & Both Teams to Score market

That’s a very good trend to know about. The ‘Win & BTTS’ option invariably boosts up the Match Result odds. And with M’gladbach currently on an 8-game run for Both Teams to Score in general – and that option odds-on at 4/9 (1.44) – this alternative market provides a Stats Pick for us at 11/4 (3.75). That’s a good point higher than the standard match win price for the home side here.

Leverkusen fit the bills for goals at both ends, with Both Teams to Score bets landing in each of their last 5 away games.

The home form leads the thinking in terms of the Match Result here, and considering 11 of Monchengladbach’s last 12 league wins overall have delivered in the Win & Both Teams to Score department – including a 2-1 victory over Bayern Munich – this option stands out here…

• Borussia Monchengladbach to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 11/4 (3.75) with Betway, 13/5 (3.60) in general

Freiburg v Werder Bremen

Saturday 2.30pm

Freiburg are 7th and gave a good account of themselves at title-chasing RB Leipzig last weekend, drawing 1-1 after leading for a long time, and denied a last-minute winner after a VAR replay, too.

Werder Bremen are in big relegation trouble, and their defence looked leaky to say the least in Monday night’s 1-4 home defeat v Leverkusen. Bremen have lost 7 of their last 8 games, and 10 of their last 12. On the road, the 17th place side have lost 4 out of 6.

At 23/20 (2.15) and above across the board, there’s a solid case for backing the Home Win.

• Freiburg to win @ 6/5 (2.20) with William Hill, Betfred, 23/20 (2.15) in general

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt

Saturday 5.30pm

Bayern Munich are 4 points clear at the top of the table and have won 5 in a row, and 11 of their last 12. The leaders are short odds-on for the win at just 1/7 (1.14), against an Eintracht Frankfurt side that have suffered 4 straight defeats.

The Corners stats signpost us to more acceptable odds about the champions…

Bayern have won the Most Corners in 13 of their last 14 Bundesliga games. They’ve dominated the corners tally by some distance in the majority of those, landing the -4 Corner Handicap in 8 of their last 10 games, including in each of their last 6 outings.

Frankfurt have managed a corners win in just 2 of their last 7 road trips.

• Bayern Munich -4 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, 22/25 (1.88) 888 Sport, Unibet, 7/8 (1.87) Betway, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365

Stats Picks Summary

See above for full details. This weekend’s picks are:

Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen:

• Borussia Monchengladbach to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 11/4 (3.75) with Betway, 13/5 (3.60) in general

Freiburg v Werder Bremen:

• Freiburg to beat win @ 6/5 (2.20) with William Hill, Betfred, 23/20 (2.15) in general

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt:

• Bayern Munich -4 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, 22/25 (1.88) 888 Sport, Unibet, 7/8 (1.87) Betway, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365

Looking for more stats and trends, and fancy picking out your own selections? Our website will help you out…

Head-2-Head stats online…

Your members-only website is fully loaded ready for the Bundesliga games. Go to European Leagues and then select Bundesliga:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

As well as League Stats, Team Stats, Form, Totals and Results sections for the Bundesliga, you’ll also find Head-2-Head stats comparisons for all of this weekend’s games.

Giving you an at-glance guide to the home v away form and standout stats & betting markets for each game.

Within each Head-2-Head, you’ll then find the info spilt into the following headings: Match Results, Goals, Cards & Bookings, Half Time Results, and Player Stats.

For example, here’s the Head-2-Head home page, with Monchengladbach v Leverkusen as the selected game:

I’ll be back on Tuesday with a first look at the stats & prices for the midweek Bundesliga games.

Best wishes,

Shaun Humphris

Across the Leagues