Go for goals in Italy tonight...
Wednesday 24th June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
- Tonight’s prices…
- Atalanta v Lazio, 8.45pm…
Own Goals and Clean Sheets…
Since the restart, goals have been hard to come by in Spain and England…
In La Liga, 15 of the last 25 games have gone Under 2.5 Goals, including 4 out of 5 matches in this week’s current round of fixtures.
Barcelona won 1-0 last night, and are yet to concede a goal in 4 outings since returning to action.
Atletico Madrid won 1-0 for the second game running. The only goal of the game was an Own Goal. Our Atletico man Alvaro Morata didn’t get on the pitch until they were inside the last 10 minutes (substitute).
And in the Premier League, just 4 of the 14 games played so far have seen both teams find the net…
That includes both of last night’s results, with Leicester and our pick Jamie Vardy drawing a blank in a 0-0 v Brighton, and Tottenham winning 2-0 v West Ham.
Brighton missed a penalty. The opening goal at Spurs was an Own Goal, meaning Harry Kane’s 82nd finish for 2-0 would’ve paid out in the First Goalscorer market as well as for Anytime Scorer (Own Goals don’t count in those markets).
Tonight’s prices…
Once again there are plenty of matches likely to get the attention of short-odds backers this week….
On Friday, in Italy, Juventus are just 2/13 (1.15) to beat Lecce, and Cristiano Ronaldo is just 1/3 (1.33) to score. Juve are yet to concede since the restart, with two 0-0 draws in the cup, and a 2-0 win in the league.
In Spain tonight, Real Madrid are the same odds-on Home Win price of 2/13 to beat Mallorca. And Karim Benzema is an 8/15 (1.53) favourite to score Anytime.
On the corners stats, Wolves are riding a formidable Most Corners streak, landing that bet in a remarkable 20 of their last 21 Premier League games. The Midlands club sit 3rd in our Premier League table for Most Corners bets, with a 77% overall record for 2019/20.
We got a decent price on Wolves on the road in the first game back (won the Most Corners, 5-7, at West Ham). But for this evening’s home match v Bournemouth, that option is short odds-on at 3/10 (1.30) at best. Only one Premier League team (Newcastle) have won the Most Corners in fewer games than Bournemouth this season.
Wolves v Bournemouth is a 6pm kick off.
You can view Head-2-Heads and League & Team Stats covering all of today’s games in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A by logging-in to your members-only Across the Leagues website:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
One game where we think goals won’t be in short supply tonight is this one, at the top end of Serie A…
Atalanta v Lazio
Italy – Serie A
8.45pm, Premier Sports
On our Form table, these two are right up there with fellow Top 5 sides Juventus and Napoli, with Atalanta and Lazio both also boasting 4 wins from their last 5.
The hosts are 4th in Serie A and looking to consolidate that Champions League qualification spot. Lazio are in the title race – a win will take them back to just one point behind Juventus. The Home Win is 6/5 (2.20). The visitors are 21/10 (3.10).
This is Lazio’s first game since 29th February. Their top scorer Ciro Immobile is also the top scoring player in the league this season, with 27 goals. Immobile is around Evens (2.00) to score tonight.
Atalanta returned to action on Sunday, and it was straight back to business as usual, with a convincing 4-1 score-line. Duvan Zapata got a brace in that game. The Colombian forward is 6/4 (2.50) to find the net again here.
Go for goals this evening…
Goals, goals and more goals has been the theme for the men in blue & black this season…
As we mentioned when looking at the Win & Both Teams to Score market last week, Atalanta have posted some big score-lines, with Sunday’s 4-1 win in keeping with pre-lockdown results such as 4-3 and 7-2 wins.
Atalanta are the top scoring team in the division. And ranked No.1 on our Serie A stats for Over 2.5 Goals, including a massive 92% home strike-rate for that bet (12 out of 13 home games). They are also 77% at home for Both Teams to Score.
The hosts are on a 7-game run in all competitions for both of those bets. Over 2.5 Goals is an 8/15 (1.53) shot today. Both Teams to Score is 1/2 (1.50) at best. The ‘double’ on both outcomes – Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score – is 4/5 (1.80) with Skybet.
Lazio bring plenty of goals potential here, too. With a 75% away record for Over 2.5 Goals, and also 75% for Both Teams to Score.
Recent meetings between these clubs also paint the picture for goals…
Last time out they drew 3-3, and 6 of their last 7 Serie A clashes between Atalanta & Lazio have seen Over 2.5 Goals and both teams finding the net at least once, including another 3-3 back in 2017.
BetVictor have gone up with an industry-best 35/1 price for another 3-3 Correct Score this evening. In the Win & Both Teams to Score market, Bet365 are 10/3 (4.33) for the Score Draw.
As you can see, there are a stack of goal-related options that you could consider today.
Of course, all bar one of those Atalanta games mentioned above came with crowds in the stadiums – and Lazio haven’t played a competitive match since the end of February.
But even with that cautionary note, Atalanta scored 4 behind closed doors on Sunday, and the season-to-date stats for these sides make a mighty case for there to be goals here.
Six of Atalanta’s last 8 home games have gone over the Over 3.5 Goals line. If this was two German clubs lining up for a game in the goal-happy Bundesliga, we’d be looking at odds of 10/11 (1.91) for that 4+ Goals total. But this is Italy, and a best price 7/5 (2.40) is available…
STATS PICK:
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 7/5 (2.40) with Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/8 (2.38) BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, VBet, 13/10 (2.30) Bet365, Boylesports
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s pick is:
Atalanta v Lazio
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 7/5 (2.40) with Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/8 (2.38) BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, VBet, 13/10 (2.30) Bet365, Boylesports
The action continues on Thursday evening, including Chelsea v Man City in the Premier League. See you tomorrow with more stats & analysis….
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
