Stats Picks - including Chelsea v Bayern Munich tonight...
Tuesday 25th February 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Midweek Stats Picks…
- Champions League & Championship tonight…
- Corners & Scorer stats...
Stats Picks…
The Corner Handicap stats were flipped on their head in the weekend Premier League games at Chelsea and Man Utd, with the home team out-cornered 3-5 in both matches.
We fared better on the Match Result stats though, with our 7/2 (4.50) win treble paying out on Lazio (won 3-2), Coventry (won 2-1) and Bayer Leverkusen (won 2-0).
This week the Champions League Last 16, 1st Leg ties continues with two games this evening and two more tomorrow:
Tuesday:
Chelsea v Bayern Munich
Napoli v Barcelona
Wednesday:
Lyon v Juventus
Real Madrid v Man City
All kick offs 8pm, live on BT Sport
There’s also a full midweek programme in the Championship, six games in League One and a couple of games in League Two tonight, too.
Here are our Stats Picks for today’s games…
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Chelsea v Bayern Munich
TONIGHT 8pm
Chelsea’s young side have got their work cut out this evening…
Bayern are the 10/11 (1.91) favourites to win. The German league leaders have won 10 of their last 11 games in all competitions. In the Champions League Group stage, Bayern won 6 out of 6, scoring at least 2 Goals For in each game.
Total Corners: Over 10.5 Corners
The Corners stats feature some high numbers here. All 6 of Chelsea’s Group games had 10+ Total Corners, with 5 of the 6 paying out on both Over 10.5 Corners and Over 11.5 Corners bets.
In the Premier League this season, Chelsea are ranked 2nd in the division in the Totals stats on our website for overall Corners Won.
Bayern have long been a dominant corner winner in Europe, topping the chart in our Historical Champions League Stats. This season, all 6 of Bayern’s Group matches saw 10+ corners, with 4 of the 6 producing 14+ Total Corners.
- Over 10.5 Corners @ Evens (2.00) with BetVictor, 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365, 4/5 (1.80) Betway, Boylesports, Sportingbet
Note: some bookies call this market Over 10 Corners.
Total Corners options also available with William Hill, Skybet, 888 Sport, Unibet, VirginBet, Marathonbet, SpreadEx.
Anytime Scorer: Robert Lewandowski
Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski is joint-top scorer in the Champions League this season with 10 goals from just 5 appearances. His manager says he’s in the ‘form of his life’ – and it’s hard to argue with the numbers…
Lewandowski is top scorer in the German Bundesliga this season with 25 goals in 23 games. The Polish forward has netted 8 times in his last 7 games in all comps, landing 3 First Scorer bets and 6 Anytime Scorer payouts in that spell.
- Anytime Scorer: Robert Lewandowski @ 10/13 (1.77) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 8/11 (1.73) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/6 (1.67) Skybet, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Betway, BetVictor
Napoli v Barcelona
TONIGHT 8pm
The away side are also the favourites here, with Barcelona priced at 6/5 (2.20) to win. Barca have won 5 of their last 6 in all comps – although 4 of those wins were at home. In the Champions League Group stage, the Spanish club were unbeaten, including 2 wins a draw on the road.
However, Barcelona have actually won just one of their last 8 away games in the Champions League Knockout rounds.
And Napoli come into this in good form, too. The Italian side have won 6 of their last 7 in all comps, and were also unbeaten in the Group stage (W2 D1 L0).
Away from the Match Result markets, one Scorer option clearly stands out…
Anytime Scorer: Lionel Messi
Nothing original about this selection, but sometimes you simply have to follow the standout stat – especially when the odds are favourable…
Lionel Messi scored 4 in one game last weekend, and with other Barca forwards like Luis Suarez out injured, Leo is very much the main man here.
In most Spanish league games, you won’t get Evens+ (2.00+) for Messi to score. Those odds are available in Europe tonight.
And when it comes to the Champions League Knockout stage, Messi typically delivers. He’s scored a total of 9 goals across his last 9 appearances in such matches…
- Anytime Scorer: Lionel Messi @ 23/20 (2.15) with 888 Sport, Unibet, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor
Moving onto this evening’s action in the English Football League…
CHAMPIONSHIP
QPR v Derby County
TONIGHT 7.45pm, Sky Sports (Red Button/ Interactive)
This is a midtable clash with neither side bringing much form from a Match Result perspective. The Corners stats make a good case for the home side though…
Most Corners: QPR
The Head-2-Head on our website shows that QPR average 5.3 Corners For per home game, with Derby’s away figure just 3.4 (see screenshot below).
QPR have won the Most Corners in 4 of their last 6 Championship games at Loftus Road.
Derby have the worst away record in the division for Most Corners results – landing that bet just once from 16 attempts on their travels.
Derby have been out-cornered in 7 of their last 8 away games. Including each of the last 5, beaten on the corners scores 9-6 at Bristol City, 3-2 at Swansea, 10-3 at Luton, 5-2 at Middlesbrough and 10-2 at Wigan.
- Most Corners: QPR @ 3/4 (1.75) with Betway, 8/11 (1.73) Skybet, Boylesports, 4/6 (1.67) Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, 8/13 (1.62) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor
Note: some bookies call this the Full Time Corners Win (Betway), or the Corners Match Bet.
Derby County’s away Corners form, taken from the Head-2-Head on our website:
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s Stats Picks are:
- Chelsea v Bayern Munich – Total Corners: Over 10.5 Corners @ Evens
- Chelsea v Bayern Munich – Anytime Scorer: Robert Lewandowski @ 10/13
- Napoli v Barcelona – Anytime Scorer: Lionel Messi @ 23/20
- QPR v Derby County – Most Corners: QPR @ 3/4
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Stats Picks for Wednesday’s games.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
