Stats Picks - including Real Madrid tonight...
Wednesday 25th September 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Stats Picks…
- Serie A, La Liga & Bundesliga…
- Coming up…
Stats Picks…
We’ve added three European leagues to our stats coverage this season. In Italy, Germany and Spain the top-flight divisions are all 5 games or so in. Some form is starting to show…
There are fixtures in Serie A and La Liga this evening. Here’s a round-up of some of the key points so far – and two Stat Picks for tonight.
GERMANY – BUNDESLIGA
‘High goals’ is the dominant theme in the Bundesliga. Five rounds in, and so far, 75% of games have gone Over 2.5 Goals.
We’ve yet to click with one of our Goals multiples in our Stats Picks (3 out of 4 correct last weekend – with Freiburg v Augsburg finishing 1-1). But these prolific German Goals stats will serve us well throughout the course of the season.
The Bundesliga resumes on Friday night.
ITALY – SERIE A
There are 7 games in Serie A this evening. Inter Milan v Lazio is the big one. The Cards stats are an area of interest here…
In the last 7 league & cup meetings between these clubs, there have been a total of 8 Red Cards.
The most recent meeting was an anomaly, with no cards shown, yellow or otherwise. But barring that game, Over 5.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of their last 6 clashes.
Bookies are going odds-on for Over 5.5 Cards tonight, with Bet365 and 888 Sport two of the firms with markets up as I write. However, that stat doesn’t translate to the early-season league form for each side. Inter have given just one Over 5.5 Cards payout from 4 games so far, and Lazio 2 from 4.
Tonight’s referee is Fabio Maresca. He’s taken charge of two Serie A games so far in 2019/20, with Yellow Card tallies of 5 and 8. Last season, Maresca dished out Red Cards in no fewer than 7 of his 16 outings.
In the 2018/19 campaign, there were 21 refs that had 15+ games in Serie A – and only two of them gave more Reds than Maresca…
You can get odds of 2/1+ (3.00+) for a Sending Off in tonight’s game. Along with the stats, that price makes the Red Card a more enticing prospect than Over 5.5 Cards.
Stats Pick:
Inter Milan v Lazio (tonight 8pm)
- ‘Red Card given – Yes’ @ 29/10 (3.90) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 13/5 (3.60) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 64/25 (3.56) Marathonbet, 2/1 (3.00) Skybet
SPAIN – LA LIGA
Barcelona are odds-on to win the league but have made a poor start by their standards, winning just 3 of their opening 6 fixtures. The away form has been the issue. The Catalan outfit have lost at Athletic Bilbao and Granada, and drawn at Osasuna.
Granada are a point better off than Lionel Messi & Co, sitting joint-top of the early La Liga table with 6 games played. A handful of teams could overtake them this evening though, including Real Madrid who are at home v Osasuna (see below). The bookies aren’t reading much into Granada’s good start, with Betfred still a confident 2,000/1 for the outsiders to go on and win the title.
On the Goals stats, Bilbao are 100% for Under 2.5 Goals results so far (5 out of 5). They’re away at Leganes this evening. Under 2.5 Goals is a strong favourite in the betting at 4/11 (1.36).
Real Madrid are usually at the other end of the Total Goals spectrum. So far this season Real have given Over 2.5 Goals payouts in 4 out of 6 games in all competitions, and Both Teams to Score in 4 out of 5 in La Liga.
This evening Madrid take on Osasuna, and the historical head-to-head says to expect a high-scoring performance from the home favourites…
Real have scored at least twice in each of their last 7 meetings with Osasuna in all comps. That includes big wins in each of their 3 most recent league encounters: 1-3, 5-2 and 4-0.
In 4 of their last 5 La Liga match-ups with Osasuna, Madrid have landed the Win & Over 2.5 Goals bet. That option is available at a top price 4/5 (1.80) this evening – which is a fair combination of the individual odds for the Match Result and for Over 2.5 Goals.
Stats Pick:
Real Madrid v Osasuna (tonight 8pm)
- ‘Real Madrid to Win & Over 2.5 Goals’ @ 4/5 (1.80) with Coral, 3/4 (1.75) Ladbrokes, Betway, Boylesports, 8/11 (1.73) Betfred
Stats Picks Summary
In summary, today’s Stats Picks are:
Inter Milan v Lazio (tonight 8pm)
- ‘Red Card given – Yes’ @ 29/10 (3.90) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 13/5 (3.60) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 64/25 (3.56) Marathonbet, 2/1 (3.00) Skybet
Real Madrid v Osasuna (tonight 8pm)
- ‘Real Madrid to Win & Over 2.5 Goals’ @ 4/5 (1.80) with Coral, 3/4 (1.75) Ladbrokes, Betway, Boylesports, 8/11 (1.73) Betfred
I’ll be back on Friday with your Stats Picks for the weekend…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
