Big Match Preview - Dortmund v Bayern Munich, 5.30pm...
Tuesday 26th May 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Midweek Preview…
- German Bundesliga…
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
Stats Picks & Analysis…
Things are looking up on the football front…
The Germans are already back, Spain’s La Liga is set for 8th June, and Italy’s Serie A are edging towards a mid-June resumption.
We just need the Premier League to sort things out now, and we’ll have a good stack of top-level football to enjoy on TV into the summer.
Busy in the Bundesliga…
Our weekend stats picks & analysis in Germany returned one winner from three in the Bundesliga, with Bayern Munich dominating the corners yet again…
Bayern thumped Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2, with a corners score of 7-2, covering the -4 Corner Handicap for a 7th straight game.
Two rounds in and we’ve made a decent start to our dedicated Bundesliga coverage. Our most profitable pick has been Kai Havertz…
Havertz landed First Goalscorer odds of 5/1 for us at Werder Bremen a week ago. The talented 20-year-old Bayer Leverkusen forward was at it again on Saturday, bagging a brace including another first goal payout, this time at Monchengladbach. See below for more on Kai today.
Another scorer that’s been in our Bundesliga notes this month is Koln’s Jhon Cordoba. The Colombian striker got a last-gasp goal at the weekend. Koln go to Hoffenheim on Wednesday.
And talking of the Scorer markets, two of the Bundesliga’s star names will be on show in the big match this evening…
BUNDESLIGA – STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
We have a full midweek Bundesliga fixture list to enjoy, with every game live on BT Sport.
There are 4 games this evening, and 5 on Wednesday. We’ll be targeting standout stats and prices each day.
The midweek action kicks off with a big one, Der Klassiker, Dortmund v Bayern, at 5.30pm today. That’s 2nd v 1st in the title race.
And remember, your members-only Across the Leagues website is fully loaded with Team Stats, League Stats and Head-2-Head home v away comparisons for every Bundesliga game:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
5.30pm
This is a huge game at the top of the table. There’d normally be 80,000 fans bouncing up and down in the Westfalenstadion, including Dortmund’s famous ‘Yellow Wall’ of support. But of course, this one will be behind closed doors with the only noise coming from the players and the touchline.
As well as the seasonal form and Head-2-Head stats on our website, with this being a big rivalry clash, I’ve looked at the key trends from the last 10 Bundesliga encounters between Dortmund and Bayern Munich:
- 8 of last 10 Bundesliga meetings – Bayern have won the Most Corners. The away team are as short as 4/9 (1.44) for today’s game, though
- 6 of last 10 meetings – Under 4.5 Total Cards. Bet365’s ‘Asian Total Cards’ line has the Under 4 option at 4/5 (1.80). That pays out on 3 or less yellow cards, with stakes returned for exactly 4 Cards (Reds count as 2)
- 7 of last 10 – Over 2.5 Goals. Each of last 6 encounters – Over 2.5 Goals AND Over 3.5 Goals. The standard Over 2.5 option is a big favourite today, at just 4/11 (1.36). Over 3.5 Goals is 10/11 (1.91), which is shorter than it would be for a lot of other games
- Home team has won 7 of last 10 meetings. Dortmund are the only team in the league with an unbeaten home record this season (W10 D13 L0). However, Bayern have got the best away form – W9 D2 L2. Match Result prices today: Dortmund 13/5 (3.60), Draw 16/5 (4.20), Bayern 10/11 (1.91)
Stacks of stats there, and this evening’s game will certainly be intriguing. Even without the usual thumping atmosphere, the stakes are high in the title race. In terms of individual players, we should look for the cream to rise to the top…
In front of goal, that means Robert Lewandowski for Bayern, and Erling Braut Haaland for Dortmund:
- Lewandowski is Top Scorer in the Bundesliga, landing Anytime Scorer bets in 9 of his last 11 league appearances
- Haaland has scored in 6 of his 10 league games since arriving at Dortmund in January, and has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 5 out of 6 home appearances so far in all competitions
Unsurprisingly, these two are the leading men in the Scorer markets for today’s game. Lewandowski is odds-on favourite, 8/13 (1.62) in general and as short as 2/5 (1.40).
Haaland is the bigger price of the two, at 6/5 (2.20). That’s a rare chance to back this exciting teenager at larger than Evens. Haaland is our pick here. The 19-year-old can show once again that he’s a big-game player…
- Anytime Scorer – Erling Braut Haaland @ 6/5 (2.20) with Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 23/20 (2.15) 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/10 (2.10) Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
7.30pm
Leverkusen have won 3 in a row, and 6 of their last 7. They’ve scored a total of 7 goals in 2 games on the road since the restart. That man Kai Havertz has got 4 of those 7 goals, including the opening strike in both games…
The Home Win is 8/11 (1.73) here, but it’s worth noting that Wolfsburg can be tough to break down. Only three teams in the division have conceded fewer goals away from home than Wolfsburg. And on our website, the team in green are ranked No.1 in the German top-flight for Under 2.5 Goals.
What’s more, while Leverkusen are undoubtedly in form, Wolfsburg are unbeaten in 4 away trips, with 3 wins and a draw to their name.
Leaving aside the odds-on Home Win price, then, we return to the genuine danger man up front for Bayer Leverkusen…
Kai Havertz has ended up on a hat-trick in each of his last two games, takes penalties, and is oozing with confidence when it comes to his finishing. In all comps, the 20-year-old German is on a remarkable 4-game run for First Goalscorer payouts. On each occasion, he’s opening the scoring during the first half.
Havertz is a top price 23/20 (2.15) in the Anytime Scorer betting today. But considering his form and the fact that one goal might settle this one against a robust away side, the bigger odds for the first goal make the most appeal…
- First Goalscorer – Kai Havertz @ 19/5 (4.80) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 15/4 (4.75) Betway, 7/2 (4.50) in general
Werder Bremen v Borussia Monchengladbach
7.30pm
This is 17th v 5th and Monchengladbach are 8/11 (1.73) for the Away Win. However, they looked sluggish in their 1-3 defeat v Leverkusen on Saturday afternoon, while Bremen boosted their survival hopes with a surprise 1-0 win at Freiburg.
Where the away team stand out for us today is in the Both Teams to Score stats. M’gladbach are on a 9-game streak for that bet, and are in 1st place on our Bundesliga table for goals at both ends this season.
With Bremen in relegation-fight mode and finding the net themselves in 2 out of 2 games since play resumed, Both Teams to Score is the stats pick here.
- Both Teams to Score @ 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365, 3/5 (1.60) William Hill, 4/7 (1.57) in general
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich:
- Anytime Scorer – Erling Braut Haaland @ 6/5 (2.20) with Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 23/20 (2.15) 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/10 (2.10) Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg:
- First Goalscorer – Kai Havertz @ 19/5 (4.80) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 15/4 (4.75) Betway, 7/2 (4.50) in general
Werder Bremen v Borussia Monchengladbach:
- Both Teams to Score @ 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365, 3/5 (1.60) William Hill, 4/7 (1.57) in general
I’ll be back tomorrow with match previews, stats & analysis for Wednesday’s games.
P.S
Lookout for ATL Extra this afternoon, too, where we’ll be naming our Bundesliga Predictions for all 9 midweek fixtures. At the weekend we got a couple of Correct Scores, at odds of 13/2 (7.50) and 17/2 (9.50)…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
