A table where Man Utd are top of the league...
Friday 27th March 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Top Trends - in more depth...
- Manchester United...
- High Cards but not Most Cards...
A table where Man Utd are top of the league...
We’re using the current pause in the football fixtures to take a deeper dive into some of the top trends to be found on your members-only Across the Leagues website.
In our last email, we looked at Sheffield United’s top-of-the-league performance for Under 2.5 Goals bets this season.
We noted that, although the Blades are ranked rock bottom of the Premier League for Shots taken, their superb defensive record has helped them sit nicely in 7th place in the league table proper.
That’s a good example of how being ranked the ‘worst’ for something on the stats doesn’t necessarily lead to a negative overall outcome for a team...
Sheff Utd have the most watertight defence in the top-flight bar leaders Liverpool. That has more than made up for their lack of prowess at the other end of the pitch.
Looking in more detail at the stats allows us to learn more about the teams. And the more we learn, then better equipped we are to make good decisions in the betting markets.
Here’s another interesting one from our website...
Red Devils and Cards...
On the League Stats pages on the Across the League site, Manchester United are ranked No.1 in the Premier League for Over 3.5 Cards bets:
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 69% of Man Utd games overall, including in 12 of their 14 away games (86%)
The screenshot below shows the top of the Premier League table for Over 3.5 Cards, with Man Utd’s away record highlighted:
Should we assume, then, that the Red Devils are a ‘dirty’ team?
Perhaps not…
In the Premier League Totals tables on our site, there are five teams that have committed more Fouls than Man Utd this season.
And on the Yellow Cards totals, there are six clubs ahead of the Old Trafford outfit.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side are also one of just three teams in the division to have not had any players Sent Off this season (zero Red Cards).
Head over to the Team Stats pages and you’ll see that Man Utd are around the Division Average when it comes to Booking Points For...
One Yellow Card is worth 10 Booking Points. At home, Man Utd’s average is 16.0 Pts For, and the Division Average is 18.1. Away, United’s average is 22.9 Pts For, with the Division Average at 20.8.
Click back over to the League Stats section of the site and you’ll see that under the Bookings tab, Man Utd are joint-bottom of the Premier League for Most Booking Points bets:
- Bets on Man Utd to receive the Most Cards or Booking Points have paid out in just 6 of their 29 games all season (21%)
What’s the ‘best bet?’
To confirm that contradiction in the stats...
Man Utd are in 1st place for Over 3.5 Cards payouts, but joint-20th for Most Cards payouts.
Man Utd are involved in more games that produce Over 3.5 Cards results than any other team in the Premier League...
But. Leicester City aside, every other team in the Premier League gets the Most Cards in a game more often than the Red Devils.
So, what’s the ‘best bet’? Let’s look to the numbers again, this time in the form of the results from their recent games…
The away form is worthy of particular attention:
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 8 of Man Utd’s last 10 away games.
In those 10 away games, the home team has got the Most Cards on 6 occasions.
This is where the match-day markets and prices come in, alongside the Head-2-Head comparison tool on our website…
It depends on the opponent, of course, but a home team is often priced up as an underdog to get the Most Cards. In that instance, there could be a good opportunity to back the home team at decent odds.
On other occasions, the opponent may match-up best of all to contribute to a high overall total, and therefore, betting Over 3.5 Cards would be the preferable option.
Narrowing down 400 markets to one bet...
Each game needs to be treated on its merits. But in the examples above, the season-long averages and recent-form stats can help us narrow down the betting markets from the 400+ available for each Premier League game on a site like William Hill… to one or two strongly-supported picks in the Cards & Booking Points markets.
And that’s where your Across the Leagues emails and Stats Picks advice comes in, along with all the information at your fingertips on the website.
We’ll be picking up on this topic in the weeks ahead, as we continue to sharpen our tools ready for when the football returns.
Take care.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
