Follow these German goals trends tonight...
Wednesday 27th May 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Midweek Preview…
- German Bundesliga…
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
Stats Picks & Analysis…
The return of the Bundesliga is 22 games in, and we’re starting to see a few trends emerge…
The headline-maker has been the ‘loss of home advantage’ from playing games behind closed doors. With no fans in the grounds and a strange atmosphere, this does seem to be having an impact:
- So far there have been just 3 Home Wins from the 22 Bundesliga games played since the restart (14%)
Add in the fact that two of those three home victories were for the Top 2 in the league as short, odds-on favourites – Bayern Munich & Borussia Dortmund – and the numbers become even more interesting. There’s certainly a warning here regarding jumping on home teams at short prices, especially those outside of the immediate title race.
On the flipside of that, backing away sides could lead to some nice prices & payouts in the weeks to come.
One trend that has so far stayed the same under the new conditions, though, is the amount of goals in the German top-flight…
For the season as a whole, the Over 2.5 Goals strike-rate is over 60% of games in the Bundesliga:
- Since play returned earlier this month, 14 out of 22 games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals (64%)
In the first two rounds of the Bundesliga coming back, 6 out of 9 games each weekend have gone Over 2.5 Goals.
So far in the midweek fixtures that started last night, 2 of the 4 games have gone over that line. If the trend is to continue, then 4 of tonight’s 5 games will be candidates to see 3+ goals…
BUNDESLIGA – STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
Three games standout on today’s fixture list, with teams boasting some long-running streaks for Over 2.5 Goals…
Over 2.5 Goals
- Koln – 10 games in a row Over 2.5 Goals
- Hertha Berlin – 8 games in a row Over 2.5 Goals
- Mainz ranked No.1 for Over 2.5 Goals in away games – 12 out of 13 (92%)
Those three teams are all in action tonight…
Koln (Cologne) are at Hoffenheim, who have had 7 home payouts in a row for Over 2.5 Goals.
Hertha Berlin are at 3rd place RB Leipzig. Leipzig are the shortest price of the day for a Home Win, at 1/3 (1.33). The Red Bull club have won 15 league games this season, and all of them have gone Over 2.5 Goals.
Mainz travel to Union Berlin, who have seen 3+ Total Goals in 5 of their last 6 games.
Those three games combine at odds approaching 3/1 for the treble on Over 2.5 Goals:
- TREBLE: Over 2.5 Goals @ 29/10+ (3.90+) Vbet, Bet365, William Hill
Hoffenheim v Koln
7.30pm
Tonight’s game at Hoffenheim stands out in two other areas, too, with the away team’s stats informing our picks…
- Only four men have scored more Bundesliga goals than Koln striker Jhon Cordoba this season. He’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 of his last 10 games
With goals expected in this one, and Hoffenheim 8 games without a Clean Sheet, backing the away team’s top scorer is the play here.
In the Cards & Booking Points stats on our website, this is also a good match-up to back the away side:
- Hoffenheim – Most Cards/ Booking Points in just one of last 12 games. And in just one of 14 home games all season – joint-best home record for good behaviour
- Koln – joint-2nd for Total Yellow Cards received this season, and only two teams have landed more Most Cards/ Booking Points bets overall. Koln have produced a payout in that market in 63% of their away games
The stats point us to two singles here…
- Anytime Scorer – John Cordoba @ 7/4 (2.75) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 13/8 (2.63) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/5 (2.40) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betfred
- Team with Most Cards – Koln (Cologne) @ 5/6 (1.83) with Betway, 4/5 (1.80) 888 Sport, Unibet. Or, Cologne 0 Card Handicap @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365. Team with Most Booking Points – Koln @ 4/5 (1.80) with Skybet
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Over 2.5 Goals:
RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin, 5.30pm
Hoffenheim v Koln, 7.30pm
Union Berlin v Mainz, 7.30pm
- TREBLE: Over 2.5 Goals @ 29/10+ (3.90+) Vbet, Bet365, William Hill
Hoffenheim v Koln:
- Anytime Scorer – John Cordoba @ 7/4 (2.75) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 13/8 (2.63) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/5 (2.40) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betfred
- Team with Most Cards – Koln (Cologne) @ 5/6 (1.83) with Betway, 4/5 (1.80) 888 Sport, Unibet. Or, Cologne 0 Card Handicap @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365. Team with Most Booking Points – Koln @ 4/5 (1.80) with Skybet
P.S
Remember, your members-only Across the Leagues website is fully loaded with Team Stats, League Stats and Head-2-Head home v away comparisons for every Bundesliga game:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
I’ll be back on Friday with your weekend preview, analysis and stats picks.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
