Weekend Preview - with 4 Stats Picks...
Friday 29th May 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Preview…
- German Bundesliga…
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
Bundesliga – Stats Picks & Analysis…
The weekend is here and we’re off to Germany with the latest round of Bundesliga action to look forward to. See below for our weekend preview, stats picks, and analysis.
Things are looking up in England, too, with yesterday’s announcement that the Premier League is due back on 17th June.
And with La Liga in Spain aiming for 8th June, we’ll be reporting on stacks of stats for those top leagues in the next couple of weeks, all covered on your Across the Leagues members-only website.
For today though, we’re all about the Bundesliga…
GOALS
The German top-flight is always worth looking at for Over 2.5 Goals opportunities, and this weekend the stats highlight the game at Hertha Berlin as one to pursue in that category…
Hertha Berlin v Augsburg
Saturday 2.30pm
Hertha Berlin have an overall 79% strike-rate for Over 2.5 Goals bets this season – a figure that puts them joint-1st for Over 2.5 Goals payouts in the Bundesliga chart on our website, alongside league leaders Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
While Bayern & Dortmund games are invariably short prices in this market, a team like Hertha don’t carry the same kind of price tag.
For example, Over 2.5 Goals is 1/5 (1.20) at best for Bayern’s game against Dusseldorf this weekend. And that bet is 4/9 (1.44) for Dortmund at Paderborn.
In comparison, that 3+ Total Goals option is 8/11+ (1.73+) for the game in Berlin. Hertha have produced an Over 2.5 Goals result in each of their last 8 league games, including 4 in a row at home.
Let’s not forget the other team here, too. Augsburg are 64% for the season for Over 2.5 Goals. And in recent meetings with Hertha, that bet has paid our 4 times in a row, with score-lines of: 4-0 this term, and 3-4, 2-2 and 2-2 before that.
STATS PICK:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (1.80) with William Hill, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365 and in general
MATCH RESULTS
The Bundesliga form ‘behind closed doors’ says to choose wisely with Home Wins right now. Since the league returned from lockdown, there have been just 5 home victories from 27 games played (18.5%). That’s down from a 43.3% Home Win average for the season-to-date before the coronavirus crisis halted play.
This weekend’s game at Wolfsburg looks a contender though, with the home side in decent form and taking on an opponent in the midst of a real slump…
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 2.30pm
Frankfurt are 6 games without a win – losing 5 – and only rescued a point at home v Freiburg in midweek thanks to a late comeback from 1-3 down, drawing 3-3.
During that 6-game spell, Frankfurt have conceded a whopping 21 goals, at an average of 3.5 Goals Against per game.
Wolfsburg have won 2 out of 3 since the restart, only losing to 2nd place Dortmund. And the team in green looked very good in a 4-1 win at 5th place Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday night.
Wolfsburg are a solid 6th in the league, while Frankfurt have skidded to just 2 points off the relegation zone. At around Evens for the Home Win, Wolfsburg tick plenty of boxes here.
STATS PICK:
- Wolfsburg to win @ Evens (2.00) with Vbet, 19/20 (1.95) Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Betway, 10/11 (1.91) elsewhere
Schalke v Werder Bremen
Saturday 2.30pm
Going back to that ‘no home advantage’ point, Schalke look a ropey home side this weekend…
David Wagner’s side have lost 3 in a row since the restart, and are without a win in 10 games overall. Schalke sit slap-bang in mid-table, in 9th place with realistically pretty much nothing to play for between now and the end of the season.
On the Bundesliga last-5-games Form table on our website, Schalke are bottom.
That’s a backdrop that gives Werder Bremen fans reason to be optimistic this weekend…
Bremen are in the relegation zone, but have shown signs of fight recently. Florian Kohfeldt’s side have avoided defeat in their last couple of outings, both against top-half opposition. Winning 1-0 at Freiburg last weekend, then drawing 0-0 on Tuesday v Champions League qualification contenders Borussia Monchengladbach.
With a huge game in hand coming up against struggling Frankfurt next Wednesday, Bremen have big incentive to get a result here and really ignite their chances of staying in the top-flight.
The Away Win is around 15/8 (2.88). The Draw No Bet market gets the nod for us though, returning stakes in the event of a draw. (The 0 Asian Handicap is the same bet with a different name.)
STATS PICK:
- Werder Bremen – Draw No Bet @ 6/5 (2.20) with Skybet, 11/10 (2.10) Boylesports, Evens (2.00) with Bet365 and in general
SCORERS
On any given weekend there are dozens of players to consider in the First & Anytime Scorer markets. As well as recent & season form as a guide, we need to make sure we’re following players at worthwhile prices…
The Bundesliga’s leading scorer Robert Lewandowski cannot be argued with in terms of his stats. The Bayern Munich striker has 27 goals in 26 appearances, providing 20 Anytime Scorer payouts and landing 10 First Goalscorer bets.
However, if you’d backed Lewandowski to level stakes in every game this season at the same prices that he’s trading at for this weekend’s match against Dusseldorf, which are 2/9 (1.22) to score Anytime, and 13/8 (2.63) to score First. You’d actually be running at a slight loss for the season overall on Lewandowski in the Anytime market, and only at break-even for the First Goalscorer betting.
It’s important, then, to look for a player not only with some form and scoring potential, but also at more profitable price points. Hoffenheim’s Christoph Baumgartner is man that fits the that bill going into this weekend’s games…
Mainz v Hoffenheim
Saturday 2.30pm
This is 15th plays 7th in the league table. Mainz are still looking for a first win after the restart. Hoffenheim beat Koln 3-1 on Wednesday.
Christoph Baumgartner scored a brace in that midweek win. Just 20 years old, the young Austrian is having a breakthrough season, really making his mark for Hoffenheim since December…
The attacking midfielder – who sometimes gets deployed as striker – has now landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 of his last 10 Bundesliga appearances. That’s eye-catching form.
Baumgartner is 2/1+ (3.00+) to score on Saturday. Backing him at odds of 2/1 in the Anytime Scorer market in those 10 most recent games would have produced an 80% ROI to level stakes.
We’ve already latched on to one very promising 20-year-old in Germany recently. Kai Havertz is around Evens (2.00) to score again for Bayer Leverkusen at Freiburg this evening. Baumgartner is another young prospect worth following, especially right now with the odds in our favour, and against vulnerable-looking opponents in Mainz.
STATS PICK:
- Anytime Scorer – Christoph Baumgartner @ 9/4 (3.25) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/5 (3.20) Betfred, 21/10 (3.10) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, 2/1 (3.00) Bet365, Betway
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. This weekend’s picks are:
Hertha Berlin v Augsburg:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (1.80) with William Hill, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365 and in general
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt:
- Wolfsburg to win @ Evens (2.00) with Vbet, 19/20 (1.95) Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Betway, 10/11 (1.91) elsewhere
Schalke v Werder Bremen:
- Werder Bremen – Draw No Bet @ 6/5 (2.20) with Skybet, 11/10 (2.10) Boylesports, Evens (2.00) with Bet365 and in general
Mainz v Hoffenheim:
- Anytime Scorer – Christoph Baumgartner @ 9/4 (3.25) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/5 (3.20) Betfred, 21/10 (3.10) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, 2/1 (3.00) Bet365, Betway
Head-2-Head stats online…
Looking for more stats and trends, and fancy picking out your own selections? Our website will help you out…
Your members-only website is fully loaded ready for the Bundesliga games. Go to European Leagues and then select Bundesliga:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
I’ll be back at the start of next week with a look at the Monday night game between Koln and RB Leipzig.
P.S
Remember every Bundesliga game is being shown live on BT Sport. And with the Premier League and Spanish La Liga both due back soon with several free-to-air games, there’s plenty of live football for us to look forward to.
Have a good weekend,
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
