Weekend angles – including Oxford this evening…
Friday 3rd July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- League One Playoffs – kick off 5.30pm…
- A final visit to Austria…
- 2/1 and 3/1 scorers…
Weekend angles – including Oxford this evening…
We didn’t get the Half Time/Full Time flip-flop in the Atalanta game last night, but that’s definitely a market and an approach that we’ll be returning to…
Since May last year, I’ve put forward that tactic in three matches, and landed one 28/1 winner (Ajax 2 Tottenham 3 in the Champions League last season). At prices like that, we don’t need to hit the mark every time – and we won’t.
Atalanta have now won seven in a row in Serie A, but only been ahead at half time in one of them. Last night v Napoli, they were 0-0 at half time and 2-0 at full time. That Draw/Win HT/FT option was a 5/1 chance. We’ll keep Atalanta firmly on our radar for the rest of the month. They’re odds-on to win again at Cagliari this weekend.
Lots to get through today, and the feature match for us kicks off at 5.30pm…
Oxford for Wembley…
The League One Playoffs start this evening. The line-up is Portsmouth v Oxford and Fleetwood v Wycombe.
Before the season was suspended, and then cancelled and settled on points-per-game averages, Oxford were 3rd in the League One table ‘proper,’ and on a five-game winning run.
After an impressive season, including taking Premier League Newcastle to a replay and extra time in the FA Cup, U’s boss Karl Robinson has been speaking well ahead of this game. He sounds like a man confident that his team can deliver in the playoffs. Oxford have even had a psychotherapist in to help the players prepare for playing in empty grounds with no fans.
Oxford are my pick to win the playoffs, available at 11/4 (3.75) or 5/2 (3.50). If they get a decent result in the away leg tonight, that price will look good.
I also like the odds for the men in yellow’s two top scorers this evening…
James Henry looks to have a bit of class about him, and with 12 goals for the season in League One, including three in five games before the halt in play, he could prove value at 3/1 and bigger here.
Matty Taylor has 13 league goals, and had struck in five out of seven games before the season was paused. On loan from Bristol City, Taylor is key danger man here, often utilised as a lone striker for Oxford, with the likes of Henry supporting him in attack. The pre-lockdown formbook suggests odds of 2/1+ for Taylor should be taken.
Between them, Henry and Taylor have accounted for three of Oxford’s last five goals against Portsmouth in all competitions. Backing both men to score Anytime at today’s prices would’ve proved a profitable tactic in each of the last three meetings between these sides.
A final visit to Austria…
I’ve been following the Austrian Bundesliga this season, and with the final weekend of the campaign coming up, this is one last chance to profit from two of the strongest trends over there…
LASK Linz v Salzburg was supposed to be a final-day blockbuster for the title, but the trophies have all already been sorted out. And as we noted earlier in the week when successfully opposing LASK at Rapid Vienna, the wheels have come off the Linz wagon, while Salzburg have motored on at the top of the league.
Salzburg are a top price 4/5 (1.80) for the away win. I like the -1 Match Handicap at 15/8 (2.88). Salzburg have landed this bet in all seven of their league wins since the restart, winning by at least two goals in all of those victories, including a 3-1 triumph over LASK in June.
Andreas Gruber is a man that’s featured heavily in my notes since the restart. The Mattersburg attacker has scored in three of his last six games, and in eight out of 14 appearances going back to September…
After missing the penultimate game of the season when serving a one-match ban (he got five yellow cards in five games), the 25-year-old Gruber is back for Mattersburg on Saturday for the trip to Austria Vienna. Presenting us with one last opportunity to back him at a nice price this season. He's around 2/1 to find the net, and that looks good to me.
Today’s picks
League One Playoffs 2019/20
Portsmouth v Oxford Utd (5.30pm, Sky Sports)
- Anytime Scorer: James Henry @ 7/2 (4.50) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, Betway, Vbet, 888 Sport, Unibet
- Anytime Scorer: Matty Taylor @ 9/4 (3.25) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/5 (3.20) Bet365, Betway, Vbet, 21/10 (3.10) in general
Austria, Bundesliga
LASK Linz v Salzburg (Sunday 4pm)
Austria Vienna v Mattersburg (Saturday 4pm)
I’ll be back next week with more angles & analysis for you, and a look at the latest standout stats on your Across the Leagues website.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
